After what feels like the longest presidential term in history finally Donald Trump was replaced by incoming President Joe Biden this week. Thankfully, the occasion passed without serious public incident with the US National Guard deployed across the city as Joe Biden was sworn in, in what appeared a compassionate and sincere ceremony and speech from the now US President and Vice President Kamala Harris. Taking the decision not to attend the ceremony and welcome the Biden family to the Whitehouse, Trump showed a characteristic lack of class to the end. For the outgoing President he now awaits the senate vote on his second impeachment, there were thoughts he may choose to pardon himself and Rudi Gulliani in his Presidential pardons, perhaps feeling that would be like an admission of guilt, but for now the financial markets breathe a sigh of relief with the balance of power sitting in more trusted and conservative hands and the ultimate eventuality of Trump from here on in sitting out with the realms of the market impact.
在经历了感觉上是“有史以来最长的美国总统任期”之后，特朗普的总统生涯终于在本周画上句点，继任总统拜登正式完成了他的就职典礼。令人感到欣慰的是，就职典礼当天并没有发生暴乱，美国有关部门出动了国民警卫队担当警戒，确保新任美国总统拜登和副总统哈里斯在一片真诚并和平的气氛中完成了就职宣誓。
卸了任的特朗普并没有按照惯例参加新任总统就职典礼，也没有亲自在白宫迎接新主人的到来，到最后一刻仍然表现出了他“不按套路出牌”的处事态度。特朗普如今所面临的，是参议院即将就他是否将被二次被弹劾的投票决议。曾有人猜测，他会在任期的最后几天赦免他自己和他的律师朱利安尼，然而他也并没有这么做。
就目前来说，金融市场终于可以长舒一口气了，如今掌握美国总统大权的人更加保守并值得信赖，特朗普的一举一动也将无法再在金融市场掀起波澜。
President Joe Biden wasted no time in immediately getting to work unwinding the executive orders actioned by the departing Trump. Buoyed with the ultra-loose monetary policy indicated by the Federal Reserve team last week and with Biden proposing to bring $1.9 trillion of pandemic stimulus to the US economy stocks continue to grind higher with the Nasdaq making a new high above 13,300 and S&P and Dow Jones topping at 3,869 and 31,300, respectively. With earning season delivering well and a sea of green on numbers from the US companies in particular Banking, with those who missed targets only doing so by slender margins, the trajectory of stocks for the large part of the week was to the upside with the dollar weaker on the ‘risk’ safe haven play and the outlook heavily indicating a continuation of this pattern.
新官上任的拜登一刻也没耽误，就任总统后立即推翻了特朗普的多项行政令。由于拜登上周宣布了一项1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划，再加上美联储表示将维持超宽松货币政策，美国股市本周大涨，纳斯达克突破13300点创下历史新高，标普指数和道·琼斯指数分别达到3869点和31300点的高位。
在营收季表现喜人的加持下，美国公司涨势大好，其中银行业的表现尤为突出。本周大盘总体上呈上升趋势，作为“避风港”的美元在风险消失后开始疲软，并且可能在未来一段时间里持续这种趋势。
Towards the end of the week however, concerns continue to grow around the growth of the second wave of the pandemic with Biden himself indicating that we could see another 100,000 deaths Stateside in a month pushing the total deaths to 500,000. Whilst he is fresh to the role and keen to try and win over staunch Republicans, he seems to have held back slightly on the forceful implementation of mask wearing opting for just regulation on wearing them on Federal property. The existing and projected Covid infection numbers are truly shocking and raised concerns that had the market more stalling than falling.
The situation appears no better in the Eurozone where Germany, Holland and France have been forced to extend lockdown and curfews towards Easter. In the UK Boris Johnson firmly alluded to the fact that the February 15th lockdown review date will likely result in further extension of lockdowns to some degree out to spring and potentially summer. The Pound looked to be soaring this week with infection numbers plateauing and falling subtly, however with the lag between infection and recovery or not, the death numbers peaked making new highs with the current trajectory meaning the UK will likely hit 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths early next week, making it the worst affected country globally per capita. As previously stated, the UK is ahead of the curve on vaccinations, but the government still can’t hit the 500,000 daily injections targeted with just 7.5% of the population currently vaccinated. The Pond strength earlier in the week was brought by the deceleration of the infection curve but the PM and Home Secretary’s warnings over tightening lockdown restrictions by rule of law and the fear the economic paralysis of a large faction of the economy could be felt into the summer brought the pound back from the 1.37509 highs by a cent to 1.3650 against the US Dollar.
在本周临近周末的时候，对第二波疫情的担忧情绪重新占了上风。拜登发言称，美国未来一个月将可能新增10万个死于新冠病毒的人，届时累计新冠死亡人数将可能超过50万。然而作为新任总统，拜登此刻急需赢得来自共和党人的支持，因此在强制要求人们佩戴口罩这件事上，他似乎不像此前那般强硬了，而变成仅仅要求人们在联邦大楼、飞机上和机场戴口罩。不断增长的新冠确诊病例和预估的死亡人数令人感到震惊，对疫情的担忧虽不足以引起下跌，但却也让市场暂停了脚步。
欧元区也面临着同样的问题，德国、荷兰和法国均不得不将封锁期延长至复活节。英国此前宣布将在2月15日就当前疫情以及封锁情况进行讨论，首相约翰逊近日在言语间暗示，将可能会延长部分封锁措施至春季，甚至延长至夏季。
随着英国新增病例曲线在逐渐扁平化后出现微小下滑，英镑本周变现强劲，但由于确诊与恢复期存在时间差，英国新冠死亡人数在本周创下新高，按照如今的趋势计算，英国的累计新冠死亡人数很可能将在下周达到10万，英国也将成为世界上人均感染率最高的国家。
即便英国在新冠疫苗接种方面先行一步，然而英国目前仅有7.5%的人口完成了疫苗接种，距离政府设定的每日接种50万人的目标还有一定差距。在首相和内政大臣均暗示将延长封锁期后，对英国经济将长时间陷入瘫痪的担忧使得英镑兑美元从1.3751的高位回调至1.3650水平。
The Eurozone remains under heavy pandemic induced pressures as we start the new year with the vaccination process of the larger bloc proving slower whilst infection levels continue to grow. The political disharmony in Italy and Holland remains a concern also. This week brought the ECB’s latest rate setting meeting whereas expected the Christine Lagarde and team left rates unchanged, opting to state the ECB are not tied to any yield with key rates projected to stay at current or lower levels until inflation improves. The two main points raised were around the PEPP where she stated it may not be used in full but could also be recalibrated moving forward. In the press conference as she was pushed on the committees thoughts around the damaging economic implications of an accelerating Euro she signaled the ECB were keeping a close eye on FX appreciation.
欧元区仍深受疫情困扰，疫苗接种进程缓慢，同时病毒感染也难以被遏制。意大利和荷兰继续深陷政治泥潭。本周欧洲央行公布了利率决议，欧洲央行行长拉加德和她的团队重申立场，在达到通胀目标前，欧洲央行将维持利率不变。至于紧急抗疫购债计划，拉加德表示额度不必全部使用，并可以重新校准。在新闻发布会上，当被问到欧洲央行对欧元升值的看法时，拉加德称欧洲央行“非常关注”汇率。
In the week ahead keep an eye on case numbers globally and any republican resistance to Biden’s plans for the US as he moves to tackle the bigger issues after the easy wins seen this week.
The Week Ahead:
Monday - A quiet day with most data centered around the Eurozone. ECB Head Lagarde speaks early in the session before German IFO Business Climate data. We hear from the ECB Head again at 4.15pm. On the turn of the day we get Japan’s Monetary Policy Meetings minutes.
欧洲央行行长拉加德将在上午和下午4:15发表讲话。周一发布的数据包括德国IFO商业景气数据以及日本央行货币政策会议纪要。
Tuesday - UK data comes first for the day with Average earnings, Claimant Count and Unemployment numbers. Later in the morning and also from the UK we get CBI data. In the US session its HPI and Consumer Confidence data and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
英国将在周二发布平均收入、失业救济申请人数、失业数据以及来自英国工业联合会的经济数据。美国将发布房价指数、消费者信心数据以及里士满制造业指数。
Wednesday - Starts with UK BRC Shop Price Index before CPI data from Australia and NAB Consumer Confidence. In the European session we get Gfk data from Germany and the UK Nationwide House Price Index. Durable Goods from the US is the main data from the US before the Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision, Statement and Press Conference. Later on we get Trade Balance from New Zealand and Retail Sales from Japan.
最先发布的是英国零售商公会发布的商店价格指数，之后是澳大利亚CPI和澳大利亚国民银行消费者信心指数。欧盘时段，我们将获得德国发布的Gfk数据以及英国Nationwide房价指数。美国方面的主要数据是耐用品订单，以及美联储公开市场委员会的利率决议和新闻发布会。晚些时候，我们将得到新西兰的贸易差额和日本零售业销售额等数据。
Thursday - Swiss Trade Balance, German Prelim CPI and Spanish Unemployment start the day. In the afternoon we get US Advance GDP, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories and Weekly Jobless, with CB Leading Index and New Home Sales just after. In the evening Japan’s CPI, Unemployment Rate and Industrial Production is released.
最先发布的是瑞士贸易差额、德国预先CPI以及西班牙失业数据。下午，我们将得到美国预估GDP、贸易差额、批发库存以、周失业人数、CB领先经济指标以及新屋销售额。傍晚，日本将发布CPI、失业率以及工业产值。
Friday - Starts with Australian PPI and Private Sector Credit, before Consumer Confidence and Housing Starts from Japan. In the European session we get French and Spanish GDP, Consumer Spending from France, German Import Prices, Swiss KOF, Spanish CPI, German Unemployment data and Eurozone Money Supply and Private Loan numbers. IN the US session first up is Canadian GDP, IPPI and RMPI. From the US we get PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income & Spending as well as Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
首先是澳大利亚PPI和私人部门信贷，以及日本的消费者信心指数和住房数据。欧盘时段，我们将得到法国和西班牙的GDP数据、法国消费者支出、德国进口价格、瑞士KOF领先指数、西班牙CPI、德国失业数据，以及欧元区货币供应和私人借款等数据。北美时段，加拿大将发布GDP、工业产品价格指数和原材料价格指数。美国将发布个人消费支出物价指数、就业成本指数、个人收入和支出、芝加哥PMI、待完成房屋销售额以及密歇根大学消费者情绪和通胀预期。
