It has been another extremely volatile week in the markets as we have come to expect. But as we end the week, the headlines in the markets are more on the emerging theme of the Retail trader taking on the might of the Hedge Fund community. The practice that seems to have been employed in the US markets, is factions formulating on internet forums such as Reddit and using collective purchasing power to inflate the price of flagging stocks such as Gamestop. The flash mob style purchases targeted flushing out the short positions taken by Hedge Funds based on formal analysis, but ultimately when the price gets forced too high, a disciplined good practice infers that the Hedge Funds must cover the shorts bringing another wave of buying to the markets. This was repeated over a number of US stocks later in the week and brought unforeseen volatility to a market that didn’t need it, thus a flight to de risk and deleverage.

正如我们预期的那样，本周又是金融市场强烈波动的一周。临近周末的时候，人们的谈论焦点似乎都放在了散户投资者与对冲基金经理们的“世纪大战”上面。在美股市场上引起这波异动的其中一方，是Reddit等网络论坛成员所组成的“散户帮派”，他们通过抱团作战，逐步推高了包括Gamestop在内的低迷股票的价格，他们的目的是逼迫那些做空Gamestop的对冲基金“大佬们”含泪离场。但随着股票价格的一路高歌，秉持正确理念的对冲基金不得不一直购买股票来进行对冲，从而再度带来了一波买入。本周，多支美股都出现了类似的状况，这给市场带来了不可预见的波动性，因此也带来了去风险和去杠杆化的市场行为。

Naturally, the practice could not go unnoticed and with an increase of leveraged trading on Retail platforms, the Banks which act as liquidity providers for Brokerages such as RobinHood demanded increased margin on assets which had seen moves of up to 1000% in a few days meaning the brokers limited the ability to buy with sell only on held assets being the only option on most Retail platforms on Thursday. Naturally, this brought outcry from the Retail community with at least one lawsuit filed against Robinhood to date. However, with global regulators looking in, the monitoring of those faceless names of forums will be closely monitored for insightful market manipulation and with volatility on the targeted assets at incredible highs margin will ultimately price out leveraged trading.  Such collective market manipulation brought prison sentences and heavy fines to the banking communities in the last 10 years so the practices exhibited in the last few weeks will likely be top of the regulator’s agenda in the coming weeks.

随着散户交易平台上杠杆交易的增多，银行作为包括RobinHood在内众多交易平台的流动性提供者，势必无法对散户这样的行为视若无睹。于是，银行在周四宣布提高保证金要求，从而促使交易平台对用户的交易行为进行了一定程度的限制，只允许用户卖出这些股票。

于是乎，这也引来了散户投资者的强烈不满，甚至有人提交了对Robinhood的法律诉讼。然而，全球多个金融监管机构都对这些匿名的网络论坛加强了关注，任何操控市场的行为都不能被容忍。对于那些在此次风波中被选中的股票，由于波动性过高，高保证金的要求将最终减少杠杆交易。

过去十年以来，类似的集体性市场操控曾让多个“资本大佬们”被判入狱和高额罚款。因此未来几周的时间里，金融监管机构必将对过去几周的事件加以调查。

The instability brought by the above weighed heavy on the indices yet not always in a straight line with some incredible daily volatility. Coupled with the global increase of Covid-19 cases and incredibly slow distribution of vaccines stocks were turning despite a broadly strong earnings season Stateside. Indeed, the strong numbers seen did little in the way of upside stimulate as stocks weighed heavy as it looked likely we could see a modest pullback before the value and dip buyers roll up their sleeves and jump back in. So, for now we remain sympathetic to a downside move but feel the overall trajectory will be to the upside into the end of Q1. The one piece of news that did raise concerns was from the German Finance minister, who indicated that in a primary discussion with newly appointed US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that they were looking at a global tax on big tech companies. Whilst this was part of US President Joe Biden's manifesto, its thought this would be further down the priority chain given the current global situation, should this start to gain more prominence, this would severely dent FAANG stock which ultimately dominate the US indices, so for now this is one to keep an eye on.

上述事件的不稳定性让各股指在本周承受重压，虽然不是直线跳水，但还是带来了惊人的每日波动。尽管大部分公司在本个营收季都交出了不错的成绩单，然而其他负面因素也难以被忽略，像是全球新冠疫情仍然没有得到控制，以及新冠疫苗分发进程缓慢等。

市场已经预料到，在价值型投资者和偏爱逢低买入的投资者返场前，股市很有可能迎来一次良性回调，因此出色的营收季报告未能激发一波上涨也不出人意料了。目前，我们将顺应这次的市场下行轨迹，但同时认为，市场将在第一季度尾声前仍将保持总体上行的趋势。

本周一个令人感到担忧的消息是，德国财政部长舒尔茨与美国新任财长耶伦通了电话，讨论如何在对科技巨头企业的税收问题上达成国际性的协议。尽管新任美国总统拜登在他的竞选宣言中表示过要对科技巨头公司征税，然而鉴于当前的全球形势，人们都没有想到它会这么早被提上日程。如果这一消息获得更多关注，FAANG股票很可能将受到较大影响，从而波及美国股指。因此这一事情的发展值得我们后续关注。

As previously mentioned, the distribution of Covid vaccinations has disappointed in the US. But at this time Europe seems to have a distinct issue with some countries having not even begun vaccinations. The Eurozone hindered by political turmoil in Holland and Italy does not need further disruption and Germany's demand to block EU suppliers from delivering vaccines could set a president that would lead to severe disruption and disharmony. For now, the Euro remains our favoured currency short position with the delay and logistics of the vaccine rollout perhaps detracting from the blocs ability to emerge from the severe lockdowns that are being endured. In the UK, whilst the horrible 100,000 death figure was reached and breached and new cases remain around 20,000 a day with no likelihood of emergence from lockdown until the 8th of March as was announced by Boris Johnson this week, life beyond Covid is starting to seem more probable. Case numbers have significantly fallen and the vaccine rollout is growing at a consistent rate with news of a UK approved product coming late this week. Therefore, with the US Dollar remaining strong amidst risk aversion the Pound is outperforming the Euro against the USD so for now we hold firm in our EUR/GBP view into the new month.

美国新冠疫苗的分发情况仍然差强人意，而欧洲疫苗供应上的问题更大，一些欧洲国家甚至还没有开始接种疫苗。荷兰和意大利深陷政治乱象，德国呼吁欧盟控制疫苗出口，欧元区目前处于破裂和不和谐的氛围当中。

欧元目前仍然是我们最偏爱的货币空头头寸，大规模疫苗接种中出现的推迟延误以及物流不到位等问题显示出，欧盟可能将较晚解除严格封锁状态。

英国方面，新冠累计死亡人数超过了10万，日新增确诊病例仍然维持在2万的水平，首相约翰逊本周宣布封锁期将延续至3月8日。然而，新冠确诊人数下降明显，疫苗接种有序进行，人们已经可以看到疫情结束的希望了。

美元本周随市场弥漫避险情绪而保持强劲，英镑兑美元力压欧元，因此我们在下个月继续秉持对欧元兑英镑价格走势的看法。

Next week brings a host of PMI data across the globe with interest rate meetings from Australia and the UK. Also watch for Joe Biden’s stimulus plan being discussed in the Senate and of course US Non-Farm and Unemployment rate data on Friday.

Have a good week!

The Week Ahead:

Monday - A busy start to the week with Manufacturing PMI from China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing. The Manufacturing PMI continues in the European session with firstly the Australian then Spanish, French, Italian and German. We also get Swiss and German Retail Sales and Italian Unemployment.  From the UK we get Mortgage Approval and Net Lending data. In the US session we get ISM Manufacturing data and hear from the FED’s Bostic.  

周一数据较多，先是中国制造业和非制造业PMI，接着是澳大利亚、西班牙、法国、意大利和德国发布的制造业PMI，然后是瑞士和德国先后发布的零售业销售额，以及意大利失业数据。英国方面，我们会得到贷款批准以及净借贷数据。北美时段有美国ISM制造业数据，以及美联储成员Bostic的讲话。

Tuesday - We start with the Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. In the European session we get the UK Nationwide House Price Index. Later in the AM its French CPI, Spanish Unemployment and Italian and Eurozone GDP.  IN the US session its relatively quiet with no data till New Zealand's Employment and Unemployment rates.

最先发布的是澳联储的利率决议。欧洲时段数据包括英国Nationwide房价指数、法国CPI、西班牙失业数据以及意大利和欧元区GDP。北美时段数据较少，新西兰将发布就业率和失业率。

Wednesday - Starts with the RBA’s Lowe talking before China’s Caixin PMI data. In the Eurozone we get Service PMI from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone bloc and the UK, as well as Eurozone CPI. Stateside we get ADP and Services and ISM Services PMI before the Fed’s Evans speaks late on.

澳联储主席洛威将发表讲话。中国发布财新PMI数据。欧盘时段，我们将得到西班牙、意大利、法国、德国、欧元区和英国的服务业PMI数据，以及欧元区CPI。美国方面将发布ADP数据、服务业数据以及ISM服务业PMI数据。美联储成员Evans晚些时候会发表讲话。

Thursday - From New Zealand we start with ANZ Business Confidence before the same data from NAB in Australia and the country's Trade Balance. Next up is UK Construction PMI and Eurozone Retail Sales. At lunchtime it's the UK Interest Rate decision time from the BoE. In the afternoon we get US Unemployment Claims and Factory Orders and later on the RBA’s Lowe speaks again.

澳新银行将发布新西兰商业景气指数，澳大利亚方面数据包括贸易差额以及澳大利亚国民银行发布的商业景气指数。之后发布的数据包括英国建筑业PMI和欧元区零售业销售额。中午，英国央行将发布利率决议。下午我们将获得美国失业救济申请人数和工厂订单等数据，澳联储主席洛威发表讲话。

Friday - We start with Australia’s RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales. From the Eurozone we get German Factory Orders, French Private Payrolls and Trade Balance as well as Italian Retail Sales. From the UK we get the Halifax House Price Index. In the US session we get US and Canadian Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Average Earnings and Trade Balance data.

周五最先得到澳联储货币政策声明和零售业销售额数据。欧元区方面，我们将获得德国工厂订单、法国私人就业和贸易差额，以及意大利零售业销售额。英国方面将发布Halifax房屋价格指数。北美时段，我们将得到美国和加拿大发布的非农就业、失业、平均收入以及贸易差额等数据。