Markets remain buoyant in the face of the perceived political harmony brought by the transition of power from Donald Trump to President elect Joe Biden. This week through gritted teeth it would appear Trump is prepared to stand aside and let Biden take up the reins. As states across the US further confirm Biden's victory, Trump conceded that if the Electoral College confirms the Biden win, he will vacate the White House. We can safely say the markets are ahead of Trump himself in declaring the victor, with Joe Biden expected to offer a more globally minded vision, which is boosting the stock markets.

本周，受特朗普同意向拜登转交权力的影响，金融市场在一片祥和的政治气氛中如沐春风。

随着越来越多的州承认拜登获胜，特朗普表态，如果选举人团投票确认拜登当选，他将离开白宫。尽管可能并不是心甘情愿的，但特朗普团队在这周还是表示将开展总统权力交接工作，为拜登让位。市场比特朗普更早接纳了拜登获胜的事实。由于拜登更具全球视野，股市受到提振。

Following on the themes of the last few weeks stocks charge, as presidential harmony and the welcome options of vaccines that seem to be available, we continue to see rotation in stock investment. This has not significantly damaged the fastest horses of the tech market as may have been expected, instead it has brought record inflows into equities across the board as the bond market moves back to lower yields and Oil solidifies its recapture of the $40 per barrel to push to $46. Even in a week where it was forecast we could see an equity sell off into the month end, due to positioning, stocks made record highs in the US Dow Jones index peaking at 30,200, Nasdaq at 12,230 and S&P at 3,658. These record levels were too much for Trump to resist, and despite the street perception that these levels were in spite of him, not because of him, but he seemed intent on a last moment in the sun.

股市延续了前几周的趋势，随着美国总统大选落下帷幕、新冠疫苗研发喜讯连连，我们继续看到股市板块轮动。这显然并没有对科技板块那“几匹快马”造成太大影响，反而为股市带来创纪录的资金流入，债市回归低收益率，油价巩固住了每桶40美元的价格，并突破每桶46美元价格。

尽管此前预期，股市会在月底因为仓位调整原因而出现抛售，美股股指仍纷纷冲击新高，道琼斯指数达到30200点，纳斯达克达到12230点，而标普指数也达到3658点。尽管股市长红是因为特朗普的败选，而不是他的功劳，但这样诱人的数字特朗普又怎会不加以吹嘘一番呢？于是，他在24日的白宫发布会上大赞他在任期间美股的惊人表现。

Whilst the future path seems one of optimism in the outlook of the stock market and broader economy in time the end of the week brought a more conciliatory tone as the pandemic worsened stateside and in areas of Europe bringing further lockdowns and extensions of existing restrictions. Despite global stocks surging 13% this month, there remains the very real near-term risk in front of much of the world and raising cases and a nagging doubt over vaccine effectiveness and speed of distribution cannot be ignored. In a week that saw Germany surpass 1 million cases in a country that has pro-actively tried to stop the spread of the virus, we look over at the US in Thanksgiving where air travel on the day ahead of the holiday was at the same level seen 2 years ago, as we await the footfall in shops over the holiday period, expectation is that there may not see such a significant dip and thus in a few weeks’ time this could severely impact infection levels.

尽管股市和经济的未来发展都积极向好，然而随着美国和欧洲的新冠疫情逐渐恶化，各国均需要通过封锁和更严格的限制措施来控制，临近周末时市场稍微冷却下来。尽管本月全球股市增长约13%，世界上大部分国家仍然面临短期风险，不断增长的新冠病例以及对疫苗有效性和分发速度的疑虑都是不能小觑的问题。

本周，德国新冠病例数超过100万，别忘了德国可是在应对新冠方面相当积极的国家。周四是美国的感恩节，乘飞机出行的旅客人数与2年前别无两样，预期的商店客流量也同样是往年水平，因此在未来几周时间里，我们可能会看到假日出行导致感染率飙升的严重影响。

In the UK whilst the Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed through on his promise to lift the lockdown of England, he remains under immense pressure from his own cabinet after placing 99% of the country within his highest two Tiers of restrictions. Whilst towards the end of this week, we have started to see infection levels start to lessen, confidence is in the Government's handling of the situation with much of Northern England still effectively closed off as we head into the first few weeks of December. On the Brexit front again progress is limited to soundbites of differing between “progressive” and “Outstanding differences”. This has the Pound firmly caught in a 1.3300-1.3400 range.  Europe has more than just Brexit to deal with as Poland and Hungary continue to object to tying budget financing to rule of law standards, claiming it questions their sovereignty and hindering the passing of the EU recovery fund. Despite this with a theme of US Dollar weakness prevailing EUR/USD remains strong and pushing towards the ECB’s potential line in the sand 1.20 level.

英国方面，首相约翰逊信守承诺将在下周解除英格兰的封锁，但同时也在压力中宣布解封后开始实行三级抗疫规定，其中99%的英格兰地区都被划分至风险较高的第二层级和第三层级。

我们在本周看到，各地区感染率逐渐降低，尽管英格兰北部地区的疫情仍然较为严重，但人们对政府应对新冠疫情的处理能力上更有信心。“脱欧”方面仍无太大进展，英镑巩固在1.3300至1.3400水平。

另一方面，令欧洲操心的可不止“脱欧”这一件事。波兰和匈牙利继续反对将欧盟预算与法治规范挂钩，声称欧盟质疑其主权，因此阻止欧盟复苏基金的通过。尽管欧洲乱成一锅粥，但由于美元持续走弱，欧元兑美元仍然表现强劲，冲击欧洲央行的“底线”——1.20水平。

Have a great week ahead.

The Week Ahead:

Monday - A busy start in Asia with Japanese Retail Sales and Housing Starts, Australian Inflation Gauge, Business Confidence from New Zealand and Chinese Manufacturing data. In the European Session we get German and Spanish CPI, Swiss Retail Sales and UK Lending and Mortgage data. Mid morning Christine Lagarder the ECB Head Speaks. In the US Session the main data is Chicago PMI and US Pending Home Sales. OPEC meetings also run all day.

亚洲数据较多，包括日本零售销售额和房屋数据、澳大利亚通胀指标、新西兰商业景气指数以及中国制造业数据。欧洲方面，我们将得到德国和西班牙CPI、瑞士零售销售额以及英国借贷数据。中午时段，欧洲央行行长拉加德将发表讲话。北美时段的主要数据包括芝加哥PMI以及美国待完成房屋销售额。OPEC会议将维持一整天。

Tuesday - Another busy Asian session with Manufacturing PMI from Japan and China followed by the interest rate setting decision from The Reserve Bank of Australia and statement. In the European session we get further Manufacturing PMI’s from Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone and the UK. In the US session Canadian GDP comes before US PMI numbers and Construction. There are Central Bank speakers later in the session with the ECB’s Lagarde and Fed’s Brainard.

周二又是忙碌的一天，亚洲时段有日本和中国发布的制造业PMI，紧接着是澳联储发布的利率决议以及声明。欧洲方面，我们会得到意大利、法国、德国、欧元区以及英国的制造业PMI数据。北美时段数据包括了加拿大GDP以及美国PMI数据。晚些时候，欧洲央行行长拉加德和美联储成员Brainard将分别发表讲话。

Wednesday - Australian GDP and RBA Governor Lowe speech comes early as well as Consumer Confidence from Japan.  In Europe, German Retail Sales and Spanish and Italian Unemployment numbers. In the US time zone we get ADP Employment and Fed speakers Quarles and Williams as well as a testimony from Head Jerome Powell.

最早得到的数据是澳大利亚GDP和日本消费者信心指数，以及澳联储主席洛威的讲话。欧洲方面数据包括德国零售业销售额以及西班牙和意大利的失业数据。北美时段，我们将得到ADP就业数据以及美联储成员Quarles和Williams的讲话，美联储主席鲍威尔将出席听证会。

Thursday - More PMI’s with the Service sector being in focus starting in China with Spanish, Italian, French, German, Eurozone and UK numbers coming later in the day. In the US session we get US Weekly unemployment before ISM Services PMI’s.

周四将发布更多服务业PMI数据，包括中国、西班牙、意大利、法国、德国、欧元区以及英国。美国将发布周失业数据和ISM服务业PMI数据。

Friday - Australian Retail Sales comes first up. In the European session we get German Factory Orders, French Budget Balance and Italian Retail Sales. From the UK we get Construction PMI and MPC member Tenreyro Speaks. In the US session we get employment data from Canada and the US and laterly Fed Member Bowman speaks.

澳大利亚零售销售额最早发布。欧洲时段，德国工厂订单、法国预算余额以及意大利零售销售额等数据发布。英国方面我们将得到建造业PMI，英国货币政策委员会成员Tenreyro发表讲话。北美时段，我们将得到加拿大和美国的就业数据，晚些时候美联储成员Bowman将发表讲话。