2020 has been a year like no other and as it moves towards a close a sense of optimism dominates the markets in the outlook for 2021. Over the last few weeks, the renewed hope of a successful vaccine for Covid-19 has gone from a hope to an impending reality. As soon as next week we could see the first vaccine centres operational in the UK, as the path to delivery is laid elsewhere across the world. Whilst we have noted in the last few weeks reports that the markets seek to look beyond the rise of cases in Europe and the US, that trend continues to be prevalent even as cases, hospitalisations and deaths rise in the US. Yesterday, the States recorded over 200,000 new cases registered a new world record that nobody wants. This week we have seen Los Angeles and California heighten lockdowns and all this before we really get to the fallout of the Thanksgiving impacts of citizens mixing. In Europe there remains little sign of daily cases slowing, in France we have seen no raise in case levels in the last few days, making them the best performer, but elsewhere numbers seem to increase by an average of 1.5% a day.  This raises the question of whether the lockdowns that have been endured for over a month have been ineffective, or perhaps more likely, if they hadn’t been enforced just how bad it could have been.

即将进入尾声的2020年是与众不同的一年，而在市场的眼中，2021年则是充满希望的一年。

在过去的几周里，成功研制新冠疫苗从仅仅是希望逐渐成为了现实。辉瑞/BioNTech陆续向英国交付了80万剂新冠疫苗，最早从下周开始，英国的疫苗中心将开始投入使用。

前几周我们一直在强调，金融市场似乎并没有足够重视欧洲和美国新冠病例激增的问题。尽管如今美国病例数、住院人数和死亡人数均破纪录，然而这一情况也并没有改变。本周四，美国日新增病例数超过了20万，创下了人人想要避免突破的世界纪录。本周，洛杉矶和整个加利福尼亚州都加强了封锁措施，而这仅仅是开始，之后我们还会更深切感受到感恩节访亲问友所带来的后果。

在欧洲，日增新冠病例数的增长也丝毫没有减缓的迹象。法国过去几天来的新增病例数量并没有显著增加，这让法国成为欧洲各国中的表率，然而其他国家的新病例数则基本上每日增长1.5%。人们不仅感到困惑，过去一个多月以来的封锁是否奏效？又或是想问，如果没有及时实行封锁措施，那么情况将会有多糟？

With the markets looking past the short term hurt to the potential long term good, stocks have enjoyed another strong week with record highs being hit across US indices with the Nasdaq hitting 12,545, S&P 3,700, Dow Jones 30,218 at their peaks. In the UK boosted by the early vaccine approval the FTSE Index was probably the standout performer on the week, touching 6,548 as the path to Covid recovery comes within touching distance, as well as Brexit optimism.  In the currency markets, confusion prevails, the growing tone is of course US Dollar weakness as participants bail out of safe haven plays and into riskier trades, but of the major currencies the question remains what currency do you buy. As previously mentioned in past reports the New Zealand Dollar and CNY/CNH have been the obvious choices as a reward for impeccable handling of the virus. Elsewhere it becomes more of a battle, we know the Eurozone is not happy with the currency appreciation seen of late, Japan is never happy when the USD/JPY rate nears 100 and China will have a line in the sand on the tolerance of currency appreciation. So perhaps by default the Brexit hindered Pound could offer an option moving forward.

因为市场选择忽视当下而着眼未来，股市又经历了表现强劲的一周，主要股指纷纷冲击新高，纳斯达克达到12545点，标普500指数达到3700点，道琼斯指数达到30218点。英国方面，受英国批准疫苗和“脱欧”进展的利好消息推动，富时指数应声上涨，达到6548点。

外汇市场则令人感到混乱。由于投资者开始摒弃避险资产，美元走弱势必成为未来趋势，但究竟应该选择哪一个主要货币进行投资成为了问题所在。之前我们曾提过，因为新西兰和中国在抗疫方面的成果，新西兰元以及人民币/离岸人民币是最优选择。至于其他主要货币则难分伯仲，欧元区并不希望看到欧元近日的升值，而日本也每次在美元兑日元接近100水平时保持警惕，因此相比而言，此前因“脱欧”而受阻碍的英镑或许是一个不错的选择。

Brexit again dominated the newswires this week and again it was not a steady path, but the currency held up well perhaps with more thanks to US Dollar weakness. The will there/won't there be a deal saga looks to be continuing to the 11th hour changing in probability from one press soundbite to the next. With all parties seemingly wanting a deal and thinking it can be done, from what we gather there remain concerns over regulation of a competitive playing field and fishing. It's thought France could prove to be a major protagonist and talks between Boris Johnson and EC leader Von Der Layen and French Leader Macron this weekend, could prove to make or break. The EU still has its own stimulus plan issues with Hungary and Poland still refusing to agree terms with the bloc meaning they could well be left behind as they push to complete the package. In the states the stimulus plan remains unresolved even at the newly proposed lower level, with all parties sounding positive noises to get the aid where it needs to be until they are forced to collaborate on agreement. The positivity stateside also comes from  the transfer of power towards President Elect Joe Biden, with the markets happy with the formation of his new cabinet. As Trump's grasp of power dwindles, his parting shots of petulism are being ignored by the markets with hope of a more honourable path and the rebuilding of global relationships under Biden.

“脱欧”依然是这周的关注焦点，但依然进展得并不顺利，虽然英镑走高，但更多或许是受美元走弱的影响。有关英欧双方是否能协商出一个协议的长篇连载故事似乎不到最后一秒钟不能完结，并且每次只要任意一方发表言论，可能性都会发生改变。双方看上去都想要达成协议，并且坚信能够达成协议，然而目前在“公平竞技场”和捕鱼权问题上，双方仍然存在争议。

法国是“脱欧”谈判中的重要角色，本周末，英首相约翰逊将与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和法国总统马克龙进行会谈，这场会谈将是涉及成败的关键。欧盟同时也有自己的问题需要解决。由于匈牙利和波兰仍然拒绝合作，欧盟恢复基金迟迟不能得以通过。

美国的抗疫纾困计划同样“难产”，即便降低了资金规模，两党也仍然只是嘴上说着冠冕堂皇的废话，而没有将重点放在如何合作将资金送至最急需的人手上。积极的消息是，拜登逐渐开始接掌总统权力，市场也对他组建的新政府内阁感到满意。随着特朗普所掌握的总统权力逐渐减少，市场选择忽视他离别前的“民粹主义”言论，并寄托希望在拜登身上，期待他能帮助美国重建全球关系。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - Trade Balance data from China is first up before German Industrial Production numbers. In the US session we get Canadian Ivey PMI’s. Late in the day comes Japan’s GDP release.

周一发布的数据包括中国贸易差额、德国工业产值以及加拿大Ivey采购经理指数，晚些时候日本会发布GDP数据。

Tuesday - First up is French Trade Balance. From the Eurozone we get Employment numbers, Revised GDP and Zew Economic Sentiment from the bloc and Germany.

最先发布的是法国贸易差额，之后是欧元区就业数据、修订GDP数据以及欧盟和德国的经济景气指数。

Wednesday - The day starts with CPI and PPI inflation data from China. In the European session we get German Trade balance data. In the US session there's an Interest rate decision and Statement from the Bank of Canada and US Wholesale Inventories.

在中国发布CPI和PPI数据之后，我们会得到德国贸易差额。北美时段，加拿大央行将发布利率决议，美国发布批发库存数据。

Thursday - UK RICS house price data comes early in the Asian session. At 7am UK time we get a raft of UK data, with Construction, GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Manufacturing numbers before Chinese Money Supply and Loan data.  Early in the US session we get the Interest Rate decision from the ECB and Press Conference as well as US CPI and Weekly Unemployment data.

英国将在周四发布RICS房屋价格数据。英国时间早上7点，我们将得到包括建筑开工、GDP、贸易差额、工业产值以及制造业等众多英国数据。之后发布的数据是中国货币供给和借贷数据。北美早盘，我们将获得欧洲央行的利率决议，以及美国CPI和周失业数据。

Friday - First up is German CPI data before Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Next up is French CPI and Italian Industrial Production before US Core and Non Core PPI. The last data of the week is US University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

周五最先发布的是德国CPI，之后英格兰银行将发布《金融稳定报告》，其他数据包括法国CPI、意大利工业产值以及美国核心和非核心PPI。晚些时候发布的数据包括美国密歇根大学经济数据、消费者情绪指数以及通胀预期等。