在经历了数周以来的病毒干扰和经济下行，上周，金融市场终于呈现轻微的缓和态势。尽管因为Covid-19的肆虐全球经济发展仍然饱受压力，市场仍然持续动荡，但是波动率逐渐变小了，股市也最终从3月的低迷状态中走了出来。

美国仍未到达拐点，病例数仍持续上升。病毒对经济产生的实际影响已经显现，两周前的新增美国失业人数为300万，在上周的失业数据发布前，人们原本预测为相似水平，数据发布结果是翻倍至660万。

After weeks of continued disruption and downside, last week brought a slight reprieve in the financial markets. Whilst all markets remained volatile, that volatility was confined to tighter ranges, with stock markets finally forcing their way of the March lows.  This comes even despite the severe stresses Covid - 19 is putting on the economy across the globe.  In the US where they remain in the midst of surging cases we are already seeing meaningful economic impacts as following on from last week's data showing 3 million new unemployment claims, it was forecast last week's data could be at a similar level, only for it to double to 6.6 million.

当然了，这是强制封锁，公司歇业，就业停滞带来的必然后果。然而，美国、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间持续不断的争端导致石油行业的低迷，也很大程度上促使了美国失业率的大幅增加。争端仍在继续，原定于今天举行的石油输出国组织OPEC谈判将可能被推迟至周四。尽管紧张局势尚未消解，但在本周开盘时，石油价格从每桶20美元左右上涨到28美元左右。这样的市场价格变动表明，人们预期这次谈判中多方能达成协议。尽管俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯目前占优，美国处于劣势，但油价停留在这个水平对各方来说都是不具可持续性的、具有破坏性的，因此目前市场触底反弹。

This is of course a reflection of the enforced lockdown, shutting down companies and stifling employment. However the effects of the drop in Oil caused by the ongoing dispute between the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia plays a significant role in unemployment claims in the US. The dispute remains ongoing, with OPEC talks scheduled for today looking to be postponed now until Thursday. Price action suggests that there is hope an agreement will be reached, as we start the week around 28 US dollars per barrel up from 20, and this despite tensions still running high. However, despite Russia and the Saudi’s enjoying their advantageous position, with the US currently toiling, these levels remain unsustainable and damaging for all parties, hence the markets bottoming out, for now.

欧洲方面，在法国、西班牙和意大利的病例和死亡人数上升态势有所缓解之后，欧元在本周也更加坚挺。欧洲已经显现出了到达重要转折点的最初迹象，而英国和美国却尚未达到。甚至有媒体报道称，意大利可能正在计划结束封锁，并恢复居民日常出行及经济活动。作为第一个直面疫情并受影响最大的西方国家，意大利的情况将受到西方世界的密切关注。多篇报道暗示，如果新增病例继续减少至可控水平，意大利可能会在5月中旬启动恢复计划。

In Europe the Euro starts the week on a firmer footing also after case and death numbers saw an improvement in France, Spain and importantly Italy. This shows the first signs that we are getting to that all important turning point yet to be reached in the UK and US. There were even reports in the press that Italy may be looking to plan the exit strategy to mobilize citizens and the economy, knowing that being the most impacted and first Western nation to deal with this, they will be under the watchful eye of the western world. The articles hint that they could look to kickstart this project in mid May if cases continue to retreat to a manageable level.

上周，英国方面的头条新闻是首相鲍里斯·约翰逊因新冠而入院治疗。现阶段，入院治疗被认为只是预防措施。工党领导人竞选结果公布，凯尔·史塔默成功当选。他是一位政绩斐然、备受拥护的政客。

随着病毒继续在英国蔓延，病例数不断增加，国家医疗系统所承受的压力也越来越大。英国政府和中央银行虽宣布了援助计划，但这些措施如何开展却不明确，企业和员工的困境仍未能解决。若政府不能保证资金的流动性，小型企业和个体经营者可能首当其冲受到影响，大中型企业也将紧随其后受到波及。

In the UK last week the main headlines were centered around Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s infection of the virus and his admission to hospital for treatment. At this stage it is just believed to be precautionary. The opposition leadership race was also finalised with Keir Starmer emerging victorious, a politician with a strong track record and a background that party supporters will embrace. As the virus continues to grip the UK with cases growing and the healthcare system stresses increasing, businesses and employees are still feeling the pain as whilst the government and Central Bank outlined plans for support, the initiatives are as yet unavailable to access, failure from the government to get the money flowing could bring firstly pain to small businesses and the self employed, before moving up the chain to the larger businesses. 

在接下来的一周中，我们将继续关注目前影响经济的两大主导事件——病毒和石油争端。与周三晚上美联储的会议纪要相比，周三的美国失业人数数据将更受市场关注。由于这周五和下周一是复活节假期，本周为短交易周。

In the week ahead we continue to focus on the two major  events encapsulating the economy in the virus and oil dispute. US Unemployment numbers on Wednesday will again be top of the markets radar even more so than the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday night. It will be a shorter trading week with the Easter holidays coming either side of next weekend.

The Week Ahead:

本周展望

Monday:

·       Factory Orders – DE

·       Construction PMI – DE, FR, IT, Eurozone, UK

·       Consumer Inflation Expectations - US

Tuesday:

·           Interest Rate Decision – AUS

·           Industrial Production – DE

·           Halifax House Price Index – UK

·           Ivey PMI – CAN

·           Consumer Credit Change - US

Wednesday:

·       Machinery Orders – JAP

·       MBA Mortgage Applications - US

Thursday:

·       Consumer Confidence – JAP

·       GDP Growth – UK

·       Industrial Production – UK

·       Jobless Claims – US

·       Michigan Consumer Sentiment - US

Friday:

·           Inflation Rate – CHI

·           Inflation Rate – US