无论金融市场如何试探，央行决策者们仍然坚持以平缓的速度推进利率正常化，美元也随之稳步上涨。上周，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了维持利率不变的观点，并称经济在后疫情时代中逐步复苏的道路还很漫长。

The US Dollar remains firmly on the front foot as the markets continue to test the resolve of the Central Bankers over the speed of a normalisation of interest rates. Last week we saw Jerome Powell opt not to differ in his views as a long slow steady rate path as he kept his feet on the ground unprepared to give in to the wave of optimism for the post pandemic future.

以科技股为代表的美股上周普遍挫跌，美元维持升势。上周五发布的非农数据和失业数据好于市场预期，给人们带来了新的希望。美国总统拜登的1.9万亿刺激计划在参议院得以通过，但50票赞成与49票反对的结果也实属惊险通关。无论如何，市场所关注的是，这笔用来帮助经济复苏的资金终于到位了。

As stocks and in particular the tech sector started to build traction to the downside the “risk” attraction of the US Dollar. This was further fuelled by last Fridays Non-farm Payroll and unemployment which showed more green shoots on the US Economy and whilst US President Joe Biden got his stimulus plan through the Senate, the fact the vote was close would have been a concern to him, but overall the markets focus was on the money flowing to help the economy recover.

接下来的两周时间里，欧洲央行、美联储、英格兰银行、日本央行以及加拿大央行将先后发布政策决定。债券市场的飙升令人无法忽视，使得各国央行不得不将自己的利率预测与市场对经济复苏的预期值加以比较。

The next two weeks will be big with policy decisions from the ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada. The bond market surge will be the disrupting factor for all of these Central Banks, who will have to reference the markets perception of recovery and rate forecasts against their own.

本周四，欧洲央行将率先发布最新决议，届时市场必将紧盯有关“紧急抗疫购债计划”（PEPP）的任何动态。欧元区国家疫苗接种的进程相对缓慢，意大利从上周六起开始实行更严格的新防疫法令规定。尽管欧盟境内的新冠疫苗生产商并不少，但欧盟仍需努力拓展采购疫苗的途径，为了赶上其他西方国家疫苗接种的脚步，不得不寻求起了美国制药公司的帮助。

The ECB is first up this week on Thursday, where the market will look closely at any updates on PEPP. The Eurozone sits behind the curve on vaccination and over the weekend Mario Draghi had to implement heightened lockdowns in some parts of Italy. The EU is still trying to increase procurement of vaccines and have had to turn to US firms to meet the demand to catch up with the rest of the western world, despite having multiple suppliers on their own doorstep.

今天（3月8日）是英国逐步解封的第一天。本周起，56至59岁这一年龄群的人也可以开始接种疫苗了。英国财相苏纳克在他上周发布的财政预算中，为个人和企业提供了适当的帮助。最令人感到意外的是，英镑兑美元也回落至1.3800水平。

Today marks the commencement of lockdown easing in the UK, and with vaccinations working there way down in age categories those aged between 56-59 will be offered the vaccine appointment this week. With a reasonable amount of personal and business aid offered at last week's Budget by Rishi Sunak as well its somewhat surprising to see the pound back around 1.3800 against the US Dollar.

当然，美元近日来的涨势是导致英镑兑美元回落的主要原因。此外，英国央行货币政策委员会成员Haskel上周表示，英国经济的风险仍偏向下行，这样的言论又让人们联想起了负利率的可能性。不过目前来看，在英国和欧盟地区完全从疫情中恢复过来之前，我们仍然认为欧元兑英镑仍有可能继续走低。

Naturally, the bullish Dollar performance seen week on week was the major contributor to this but comments from the Bank of England's Haskell last week, noting that the risks for the UK were skewed to the downside brought a shift in tone and the fact negative interest rates could be used back onto the table.  For now though, we persist with the view that EUR/GBP continues to have potential to test lower amid the pandemic recovery of both regions.

Have a great week ahead

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday - Japan's Prelim Machine Tool orders come first. In the European session we get French Private Payrolls, German Trade Balance, Italian Industrial Production, Eurozone Employment Change and Revised GDP. In the late session we hear from Australia’s Governor Lowe.

最先发布的是日本预先机床订单。欧盘时段，我们将得到法国私人就业、德国贸易差额、意大利工业产值、欧元区就业变化和修订GDP。晚些时候，澳联储主席洛威将发表讲话。

Wednesday - A quiet European Session with just French Industrial Production. In the US Session we get US CPI Core and Non-Core and rate decisions from the Bank of Canada.

欧盘数据较少，仅有法国工业产值。北美时段，我们将得到美国核心和非核心CPI数据，以及加拿大央行的利率决议。

Thursday - Mid session we get the ECB’s rate decision and statement as well as US Weekly Jobless numbers and JOLTS Job Openings.

欧洲央行将在中午发布利率决议并发表讲话，美国将发布周失业人数和职位空缺数和劳工流动调查报告。

Friday - Starts with German Final CPI before a raft of data from the UK with GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production, before Consumer Inflation Expectations. From Europe we get Italian Q/Q Unemployment and Industrial Production. In the US session we get Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment rate and US Core and Non-Core PPI as well as UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

在德国发布最终CPI后，我们将迎来一系列英国数据，包括GDP、贸易差额、物价指数、工业产值、服务业产值以及消费者通胀预期。欧洲方面，我们将得到意大利季度环比失业数据和工业产值。北美方面，加拿大发布就业变化和失业率，美国发布核心和非核心PPI、密歇根大学消费者信心以及通胀预期。