本周，乐观情绪仍然是金融市场上的主导情绪。美国国债收益率延续了此前三周以来的上涨趋势，在1.6%的位置进行盘整，全球债券收益率的涨势让此前采取谨慎策略的各国央行都开始有些坐不住了。

As we start a new week optimism continues to be the dominating factor in the markets.  As has been the theme in the last 3 weeks the Treasury yields led by in particular the US sector continue to consolidate around the 1.6% area, appearing to shrug off the more cautionary approach the globes central bankers want to take.  

美国总统拜登的1.9万亿刺激计划得以通过之后，民众即将收到1400美元的支票。多个报告分析称，约30%的刺激计划资金将被投放至股市当中去。

The week starts with the news that not only is US President Biden's stimulus plan agreed but the cheques are on the way with various reports speculating that as much as 30% of the delivered funds could be heading towards the stock markets.

在优于预期的CPI和就业数据以及刺激计划的多重因素加持下，道琼斯指数在上周突破了历史高点，标普500也有不错表现。纳斯达克上周则承受下行压力，由于受到拜登考虑大幅增税的影响，投资者纷纷“摒弃”居家概念股，“转爱”价值股和周期股。

Buoyed by stimulus, better CPI and better employment data the Dow Jones had a very strong weak bursting through all time highs as did the S&P 500. Whilst there was a rebound later in the week the Nasdaq is the laggard as the market rotated from stay-at-home champions vulnerable to Biden taxation, into cyclical “value” stocks.  

随着美国各州继续开展疫苗接种，美国总统拜登首席医学顾问福奇敦促有资格进行接种的民众尽快完成疫苗接种，他还警告称，恢复正常化一事不能操之过急。

As the vaccination programme Stateside rolled on, adviser Fauci warned of the vulnerabilities of a rush to normalisation as he urged those eligible for vaccination to do so.

本周市场最有可能出现波动的一天是星期三，美联储公开市场委员将在这一天举行会议。尽管外界普遍预期，利率将维持现有低水平不变，但美联储主席鲍威尔和其团队的讲话仍然值得关注，尤其是他们对市场的观点与国债市场观点的偏差之处。从目前得知的消息来看，美联储应该不会给出太令人意外的观点，然而我们仍需注意话语中的细节。

Wednesday will likely be the key day for volatility this week with the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. Expectation is that rates remain unchanged at the low levels we are used to but all eyes will be on how Jerome Powell and team comment around the dislocation between their market view and the Treasury Bond Markets view. From recent soundbites it seems unlikely the Fed deviates from the current path but close attention to the detail given must be paid.

美元近来强势反弹，英镑兑美元和欧元兑美元纷纷走低，美元兑日元盘整在109区域上方。英镑方面，由于英国出口数据并不理想，以及多国叫停阿斯利康疫苗，英镑周五承压下跌。

The US Dollar also enjoyed a strong rebound knocking GBP/USD and EUR/USD lower with USD/JPY consolidating above the 109 area.  Poor export data from the UK and concerns over the AstraZeneca vaccine weighed on the Pound on Friday.

本周四，英格兰银行将发布利率决议，外界同样预测利率将维持不变，但任何关于负利率可能性的话锋都将可能导致市场的波动。

We also have an interest rate decision from the UK’s Bank of England on Thursday where again no change in rates is expected with any talk of the possibility of negative rates not expected but likely to cause the biggest moves if confirmed or denied.

欧元区国家仍然难赶其他国家疫苗接种的速度，且确诊病例激增难以得到控制。德国在周末不得不承认已迎来第三波疫情，而意大利也宣布，在直至4月第一周前的这段时间里维持全国封锁状态。

The Eurozone is still struggling with the pace of the vaccination programme and heightened cases of virus outbreak with Germany having to admit they are in a third wave of the virus over the weekend and Italy entering a nationwide lockdown until the first week of April.

阿斯利康将疫苗供给量从9000万削减至3000万，这无疑对欧洲各国来说是雪上加霜。此外，由于部分人在注射阿斯利康疫苗后出现凝血现象，许多欧盟国家暂停了使用阿斯利康疫苗进行接种。

The path to vaccination was made harder by AstraZeneca further cutting the supply of vaccines from the original 90 million to just 30 million. Many countries in the bloc have also suspended the company’s vaccines over a few cases of blood clots following vaccination.

不仅未能跟上美国和英国接种疫苗的脚步，并且封锁措施和宵禁迟迟难以取消，欧盟国家已经感受到了巨大的压力，各国执政党派的民众支持度也大幅下滑。德国总理默克尔所属的党派基民盟在两个关键州均遭受重挫，得票率创历史低点。因此，本周的荷兰大选也必须受到密切关注。

Failure to keep up with the US and UK is starting to hurt EU countries with lockdown easing and curfews hindering the populism of leading parties as we saw in the German regional elections as Merkel’s CDU party suffered a heavy dent in confidence, Dutch elections must also be closely watched this week.

Have a great week ahead!

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday - Meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia come first with Ecofin meetings throughout the day and German ZEW Economic Sentiment data. In the US session the main event will be US Retail Sales.

澳联储发布会议纪要。全天都有欧盟委员会的经济和财政委员会会议。德国发布ZEW经济景气指数。美国将发布零售业销售额数据。

Wednesday – In the European Session we get the Eurozone CPI Inflation Data. In the US Session firstly its Canadian CPI before the Fed’s interest rate decision and statement from Jerome Powell. Late in the session we get Australia’s Employment data and New Zealand’s GDP.

欧盘时段，我们将得到欧元区CPI通胀数据。北美时段，加拿大发布CPI，美联储发布利率决议，鲍威尔发表讲话。晚些时候，我们还将得到澳大利亚就业数据和新西兰GDP。

Thursday – The Bank of England’s interest rate decision at midday will be the main event alongside the press conference from Andrew Bailey. In the US session we get the Weekly Unemployment data.

英国央行将在中午发布利率决议，央行行长贝利将发表讲话。美国将发布周失业数据。

Friday – The last central bank meeting of the week comes early in the session with the Bank of Japan giving an update before UK Public Sector Net borrowing data, German PPI and latterly Canadian Retail Sales.

本周最后一个举行央行会议的是日本央行。欧洲方面数据包括英国公共部门净借贷和德国PPI。加拿大发布零售业销售额数据。