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The stock market has started a new week very choppy, after the ECB, BOE and the Federal Reserve decided to support their respective economies in different ways. The Bank of England and the ECB seemed to prioritise weaker businesses, especially local SMEs, with specific targeted interventions. On the other hand, the Fed has, once again, slashed the Fed Rate by 1% to 0%-0.25%. Additionally, the US central bank initiated a $700bn Quantitative Easing program to inject further liquidity into the market. 


The first reaction from the market has been a quick spike higher on US stocks futures, followed by a similarly quick drop in value. Market participants appear to be focused on the short side, ignoring purely financial measures, as an even more expansionary monetary policy might not be very impactful to fight what can be defined as an exogenous shock and black swan event. The SPY (a NYSE traded ETF replicating the SP500 performance) suggests an opening bell of roughly 9.5% lower for the US stock index.

市场给出的第一反应是美国股票期货飙升,但随后价格迅速下跌。市场参与者似乎更关注短期,而忽视了财政手段,因此更具扩张性的货币政策对应对现下的外来冲击和黑天鹅事件似乎作用有限。一种在纽约证券交易所进行交易的、复制SP500表现的交易型开放式指数基金 SPY预示着,美国股指在开盘将下跌约9.5%。

For once, central banks will likely not have the power to control what seems to be an inevitable recession and economic downturn. On the positive side, many economists predict that such recession might not last as usual, with an average duration estimate of 3 to 4 months. 


Meanwhile, airline companies, travel agencies, travel FX companies, semiconductors, and financials are all struggling. Gold has also not been immune with a steep fall due to a general lack of liquidity amongst market operators and a broad “cash run”, to cover margin calls on levered long positions. 


Oil has been sold heavily as no solution appears to be imminent from either the Russian or OPEC side. Consequently, CADJPY (down 2.6% today) has also sold off and continues to weaken. On the Fixed Income side, US 10Yr Treasuries recovered from the lowest yield at 0.36% for now trading at around 0.77%. 

因为俄罗斯和OPEC方面都未能给出解决方案,石油被大量抛售。 因此,加元兑日元(今天下跌2.6%)也被遭到抛售,并继续走弱。 在固定收益方面,美国10年期美国国债从收益率最低的0.36%恢复至目前的约0.77%。

The Japanese Prime Minister announced a G7 conference call will be arranged for Monday afternoon to discuss potential coordinated action from the biggest economies worldwide. On the data front, February Chinese collapsed significantly more than expected. Chinese Industrial Production was down 13.5%, Retail Sales down 20.5%, Property Investments down 16.3% and the Jobless Rate up to 6.2%.

日本首相宣布,于周一下午举行七国集团电话会议,讨论全球最大经济体之间的潜在协调行动。 数据方面,中国2月经济受影响情况明显超出预期。 中国工业生产下降了13.5%,零售额下降了20.5%,房地产投资下降了16.3%,失业率上升到6.2%。


House Price Index – China 房价指数–中国

Interest Rate Decision – Bank of Japan 利率决定–日本银行


RBA Meeting Minutes 澳洲联储会议纪要

Employment Change – UK 就业变化–英国

ZEW Economic Sentiment Index – Germany & Eurozone ZEW经济景气指数–德国和欧元区

Retail Sales – US 零售销售额–美国

Manufacturing Production - US 制造业生产量-美国


Inflation Rate – Eurozone 通货膨胀率–欧元区

Housing Starts – US 新屋开工数–美国

Fed Interest Rate Decision – US 美联储利率决定–美国

Inflation Rate - Japan 通货膨胀率-日本


Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - US 费城联储制造业指数-美国


PPI – Germany 生产者价格指数(PPI) –德国

Loan Prime Rate – China 贷款市场报价利率–中国

GDP - Russia 国内生产总值-俄罗斯

Stefano Sciacca


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