随着我们进入了3月，美国国债市场继续牵动着金融市场。美国10年期国债收益率在突破了1.3%之后，上周抬升至1.6%的高位，随后又在周五闭市前出现小幅回调。由于债券市场对整个金融市场的影响，投资者们并没有被美联储长期维持利率不变的态度所打动，而是认为美债收益率上涨将促使美联储在2023年加息。

The US Treasury Bond markets continue to dictate the markets as we enter a new month.  Surging bond yields continued to dominate the markets as the previous weeks 1.3 yields were surpassed surging to 1.6% late last week before a slight correction was seen into Fridays close. With the bond market viewed by many as the dog that wags the markets tail, it seems the financial community are not buying into the Federal Reserve’s lower for longer dovish stance on rates, with the Bond market pulling forward the forecast on when we could see the rates liftoff into 2023.

当收益率居于高位时，谨慎的市场必然将向全球各国央行抛出很多问题。西方国家接种疫苗计划有序进行，英国完成了接种疫苗人数突破2000万的目标，美国的单日接种人数更是在上周末达到了250万，因此我们有充分的理由可以感到乐观。

As Yields sit at these highs many questions will be asked of the globe's central banks as the markets goade their cautionary approach. With the vaccination trail in the Western world progressing well as the UK surpassed 20 million vaccinations and the US vaccinating more than 2.5m people in one day alone over the weekend there is reason to be optimistic.

随着每日新增新冠确诊病例和住院人数都在不断下降，摆在政府和央行面前的问题是，何时才能恢复经济正常化？然而在经历了过去一年来的疫情之后，各国政府和央行显然都异常谨慎。在未来的几个月里，我们将很有可能看到一系列较为安全谨慎的策略。

As daily cases and hospitalisations continue to fall, the question falls with Central Bankers and Governments over when do we lift off, all very wary of the twists and turns to date during the pandemic.  Therefore a cautionary approach will likely be seen in the coming months as we head into the spring, knowing that it's notably less damaging to do so.

美国总统拜登的抗疫纾困计划已在众议院通过，还有不到2周的时间（3月14日），参议院将对他的这一计划进行表态。拜登此次只是“险胜”，不仅失去了2个民主党众议员的投票支持，还不得不在递交给参议院的议案中去掉了将最低时薪提高至15美元的条款，并且参议院是他即将面对的更大挑战。

As the US President Joe Biden gets his stimulus plan through the House of Representatives, he now has under 2 weeks (March 14th) to get agreement in the Senate, albeit, minus the $15 minimum wage target he had hoped to achieve, even losing the vote and support of 2 Democrat seats in the House meaning the Senate could well prove more damaging.

目前，在美债收益率不断攀升的压力之下，股市继上周下跌之后显示出动力不足。收益率提高后的债市和升息的潜在可能性让股市投资者们开始寻找其他替代品。然而在现阶段，抛售仍然吸引来了逢低买入的投资者，股票市场所受到的创伤仍然仅限于表层。

For now, under the pressure of spiralling yields, the stock market is holding up despite a poor week, with higher yields and potentially interest rates causing investable alternatives to stock market participants. For now though, sell offs are still attracting the dip buyers and damage to the buoyant stock markets remains superficial.  

上周，英镑终于结束了连续5天冲击新高的势头，英镑兑美元触及1.4250高点，英镑兑欧元报0.8540。英镑的回落并不是什么特别的事件导致的，更像是触发到了获利价格而已。

In the UK the pound finally ended its 5 day of fresh high continuous spell at the end of the week having hit the highs of 1.4250 against the US Dollar, and lows of 0.8540 against the Euro. For the UK there was no specific trigger for the turnaround, it felt more like a long market getting caught on a stop trigger.

在第一季度结束前，我们将会继续看到英镑的上涨结构。欧元则会继续因为新冠疫情未能得到控制、疫苗分发滞后以及难以解封等因素承压，欧元兑英镑将继续提供看跌的交易机会。

For now we continue to see a higher Pound into the end of this quarter with the Eurozone still lagging in Covid cases, vaccinations and subsequently no closer to the consideration to end lockdowns, EUR/GBP remains the trade for downside appreciation.

本周，英国将发布最新财政预算。英国政府将采取更缓慢的且合理的逐步解封策略，推后零售业和娱乐业的重新开放，鼓励人们尽可能在家办公，因此政府需要延长“带薪休假”政策，并继续为企业提供帮助。

This week does bring the UK budget. The prolonged and sensible approach by the UK Government to slowly ease the public out of their houses, holding back Retail and Entertainment industries and urging home work where possible will make the need to extend the furlough Government support lifeline to businesses imperative.

那么，英国财相苏纳克面临的问题是“钱从何而来？”有消息称，他考虑要对退休金达到100万英镑以上的人群和需缴纳较高个人所得税税率的人群“下手”。我们将在本周三关注苏纳克的财政预算新政策。

So as Rishi Sunak again spends the question will be “where will that money come from?” with it thought pensions of over £1 million and high earner tax rates could be his target. This for us, will be the interesting part of Wednesday's budget with Sunak wary perhaps of bringing in tax hikes too soon even though we all know they are coming.

Have a great week ahead

The Week Ahead: 

Tuesday - The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision will dominate the mornings session where they are expected to leave rates unchanged. German Retail Sales and Unemployment, UK HPI and Eurozone CPI come in the morning. In the US session we get Canadian GDP and the Fed’s Daly and Brainard talks will come into focus.

澳联储发布利率决议，预期利率将维持不变。之后发布的数据包括德国零售业销售额和失业情况、英国房产价格指数、欧元区CPI。北美时段，加拿大将发布GDP数据，美联储成员Daly和Brainard将发表讲话。

Wednesday - Australian GDP comes first before China's Caixin Services PMI. In the European session we get Services PMI’s from France, Spain, Germany, UK and Eurozone. At midday it's the UK Budget before US ADP Employment and US PMI’s.

最早发布的数据包括澳大利亚GDP和中国财新服务业PMI。欧盘时段，法国、西班牙、德国、英国和欧元区服务业PMI将先后发布。中午，英国发布财政预算，之后美国发布ADP就业数据和PMI数据。

Thursday - Australia's Retail Sales and Trade Balance start the day. Next up is UK Construction PMI as well as Eurozone Economic Bulletin, Retail Sales and Unemployment numbers. In the US session we get US Challenger Job Cuts, Weekly Unemployment, Factory Orders and Jerome Powell speaking at 5pm.

周四最早的数据是澳大利亚零售业销售额和贸易差额。之后是英国建筑业PMI以及欧元区的经济公报、零售业销售额和失业数据。美国发布的经济数据包括美国挑战者裁员人数、周失业情况以及工厂订单，美联储主席鲍威尔将在下午5点发表讲话。

Friday - In the European session we get German Factory Orders, French Trade Balance, and Italian Retail Sales as well as UK Halifax HPI. In the US Session is Canadian Trade Balance and US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings and Trade Balance.  

欧盘时段，我们将得到德国工厂订单、法国贸易差额、意大利零售业销售额以及英国Halifax房价指数等数据。北美时段数据包括加拿大贸易差额、美国非农数据、失业率、平均收入以及贸易差额。