By the end of this week it seems likely that Brexit will be brought to its ultimate conclusion after 4 years of messy divorce negotiations come to a dramatic finale.  With an unquestioned optimism over the UK and EU ultimately finding agreement, the markets were somewhat wrong footed as after a meeting between UK PM Boris Johnson and the European Commission’s Ursula Von Der Leyen in Brussels on Wednesday the tone of the leaders, that had been softening in the days prior to the meeting switched to that of no-deal being the likely outcome with differences too far apart for agreement.  These fears were further underlined when Johnson spoke on Thursday night claiming no-deal would be the likely outcome and we should be ready.  Naturally, this reversed the gains seen in the Pound versus the Dollar as market participants exited speculative longs ahead of the planned Sunday meeting between Johnson and Von Der Layen, where they will announce either agreement or the UK’s departure from the bloc with no trade deal in place.

经过了整整四年极具戏剧性的“离婚协商”，英国与欧盟的这场“脱欧大戏”终于在本周看似得出了最终定论。

在英欧双方最终能达成协议这方面，金融市场一直是很乐观的。然而，英首相约翰逊与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩周三在布鲁塞尔的会面让希望破灭了。尽管两人见面前的一段时间里，英国与欧盟方面都没有给出太绝对的结论，但由于双方在关键问题上仍存在较大分歧，“无协议脱欧”看似已经无法避免了。

周四晚，约翰逊表示，英国极有可能将“无协议脱欧”，英国需要做好准备。于是，英镑兑美元涨势被扭转。约翰逊与冯德莱恩商定将于周日作出是否“无协议脱欧”的明确决定，而原本看好英镑并想抓住机会做多的市场参与者们在此时纷纷退出头寸。

After four years of negotiations it seems incredible that the UK now finds themselves in this position with heavy questions being asked about the PM and his ability to deliver what he promised to get into power. Of course, we cannot rule out the fact this week’s act isn’t from his playbook, making the EU see he's ready to walk away as a last roll of the dice to force concession from them. But that playbook certainly looks as tired and transparent. At the start of the whole process we highlighted that the EU were never going to give the UK a easy deal, this could encourage other countries to follow the trodden path and indeed this is exactly where we find ourselves.

经过整整四年的谈判，英国最终走到如此境地，这样的结果是令人感到出乎意料的。人们不禁对约翰逊作为首相的执政能力提出疑问，他竞选首相时所作出的承诺也并未达到。

当然了，这周发生的事是否是他自导自演的“一出好戏”，我们目前还并不可知。或许他想让欧盟看到他“不成功便成仁”的“决心”，从而迫使欧盟方面作出最后的让步？即便是这样，那他的招数估计也已经被看穿了。

从一开始我们就心里很清楚，欧盟不会让英国轻易得到满意的协议，因为那样可能会让未来有更多的欧盟国家效仿英国。

With the outcome remaining unknown, after the announcement we can expect an explosive market open in Asia. With potential for moves of up to 5% either way in the currency. The UK FTSE will also be vulnerable after a strong few weeks of buoyant trading following the approval and rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine in the UK. Of course, it is not just the UK with vulnerabilities here, the Euro has avoided the worst of the volatility to date, but the UK is a major trading partner for the bloc and as such could see lessened but not insignificant volatilities. The EU did come through one battle this week with the 1.8 Trillion EU stimulus package finally being agreed as Poland and Hungary gave agreement. From a Central Bank perspective, we also saw Christine Lagarde’s European Central Bank increase its PEPP lending facility. She was probed in the post conference questions regarding the ECB’s view of the currency appreciation, with it being a known fact that these elevated levels are detrimental to European exports, nevertheless with professional aplomb she avoided committal to the question sighting they were “watching the level of the currency”.

下周一亚洲早盘开盘时，“脱欧”协议最终结论的公布想必会引发一次金融市场的地震，英镑预测将会遭遇5%的上下浮动。英国富时指数将在受到疫苗消息刺激走高几周后，重新面临动荡。不过，将受到冲击的不只是英国。欧元虽然目前波动不大，但鉴于英国是欧盟的主要贸易伙伴，英镑若遭受重击势必也会在一定程度上牵连欧元。

虽然“脱欧”谈判走向低谷，但欧盟本周在另一场“战役”中打了胜仗。由于波兰和匈牙利最终投下赞成票，欧盟1.8万亿欧元的经济刺激计划终于得以通过。欧洲央行还扩大了紧急抗疫贷款。

在会议后的采访环节中，欧洲央行行长拉加德被问到如何看待欧元的升值，因为众所周知，欧元升值对欧洲出口不利，而拉加德则以专业的态度回避了正面回答该问题。

It was another grave week for Covid cases across the western world with cases continuing to grow and that did start to weigh on the global stock markets across the US and Europe around the turn of the week. In the past weeks it seemed they were ignoring the near-term damage and focussing on the ultimate fix of the vaccines. But as numbers continue to grow as we head into the holidays and public mobilisation and mixing, there are grave concerns over a significant escalation into January and February next year. Stateside lockdowns are impacting significantly as is evident on the big increase in weekly unemployment, especially considering the fact there is no agreement in the stimulus package. The US/Sino tensions were heightened this week as Trump, undeterred by impending election defeat when likely confirmed by the Electoral College on Monday continues to act and enforce sanctions. Whilst the markets aren’t getting overly concerned by his actions believing Biden will likely reverse most, it does raise a concern.  With the 26th December being the date a number of the previous aid packages and provisions expire, it's likely unless we see definitive action next week we could be headed towards a very volatile market in a period of extremely low liquidity, which can bring the most aggressive moves. Next week we hear from the Federal Reserve in the US, and considering the transitional status of the Presidency, we expect Jerome Powell to underline the support via lending houses, but call on the government to deliver on the fiscal measures.

新冠疫情方面，本周西方国家的疫情没有丝毫减轻，这让美国和欧洲股市开始承压。过去几周以来，市场似乎都选择了忽视疫情带来的短期风险，而是将目光放在了疫苗普及后的长远发展上。然而随着新冠确诊病例数不断增长，即将到来的圣诞假期又意味着人们会外出旅行和聚会，因此明年1月和2月的疫情升级令人感到心忧。

美国各州纷纷进入“封锁期”，随之而来的是周失业人数的大幅增长，美国仍未通过抗疫纾困计划，更加放大了疫情对人们生活的影响。美国多项纾困救济措施即将在12月26日到期，如果下周未能延期，我们将可能迎来极低的市场流动性和十分剧烈的市场动荡。

下周，美联储将举行会议。考虑到美国总统权力正在交接，我们认为美联储主席鲍威尔会在下周提出贷款支持，同时呼吁美国政府尽快通过财政援助方案。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - With data light on the day all eyes will be on the developments with Brexit.  The only notable data comes early in Asia with the UK Rightmove House Price Index followed by Eurozone Industrial Production.

周一当日的主要焦点是“脱欧”。其他数据包括英国Rightmove房价指数以及欧元区工业产值。

Tuesday - A busy day starts with Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment Data. The UK data comes with Average Earnings and Unemployment numbers. From Europe we get French CPI and Italian Trade Balance. In the US session we get Manufacturing, Import and Industrial Production data. The Bank of Canada’s Macklem speaks in the afternoon. Lastly, we get Manufacturing and Services data from Australia.

最先发布的是中国的工业产值、零售业销售额以及失业数据。英国将发布平均收入和失业数据。欧洲方面，我们将得到法国CPI和意大利贸易差额。北美时段，我们将得到美国制造业、进口以及工业产值等数据。加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆将在下午发表讲话。最后，澳大利亚将发布制造业和服务业数据。

Wednesday - First up is UK inflation data. It's a big day of Manufacturing and Services PMI’s with the Eurozone, France, Germany, UK and US all delivering numbers. We also get Eurozone Trade Balance and US Retail Sales before the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and statement.

英国最先发布通胀数据。之后是来自欧元区、法国、德国、英国和美国的制造业和服务业PMI数据。其他数据包括欧元区贸易差额、美国零售销售额以及美联储利率决议。

Thursday - The day starts with Australian Employment and Unemployment numbers before the interest rate decision from the Swiss National Bank. Eurozone year on year CPI data comes next. At midday we get the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. From the US its Philly Fed and Weekly Unemployment numbers.

周四最早发布的数据是澳大利亚就业和失业数据，之后是瑞士央行的利率决议以及欧元区上年同期CPI对比。中午时段，英国央行将发布利率决议。美国方面有费城联储和周失业数据。

Friday - UK Consumer Confidence is the first data of the day before the Interest Rate decision and statement from the Bank of Japan. Next up is German PPI and IFO data and Eurozone Current Account numbers. From the UK we get Retail Sales and Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. Canadian Retail Sales and US Bank Stress Tests come late in the session.

英国最先发布消费者信心指数，紧接着是日本央行的利率决议，之后是德国PPI和IFO数据，以及欧元区经常账户数据。英国还将发布零售业销售额数据，英国央行发布季度公报。加拿大零售业销售额和美国银行压力测试数据将于晚些时候发布。