There has been plenty of positive vaccine news this week which has buoyed the markets, giving tangible belief that normalisation from the pandemic can be achieved next year. With the markets looking over at China, where economic growth and industry are thriving, there is a feeling that could be achieved elsewhere.  With the Western stock markets having enjoyed a couple of strong fightback weeks, in this last week we saw a more cautionary tone in price action. The battle seems to be between are we investing to buy the longer term positivity OR do we look at what's happening right in front of us at this moment.

刚刚过去的一周，我们听到了多个疫苗进展顺利的好消息，市场得以提振，明年从疫情中恢复正常的希望越来越现实了。中国已然从疫情的打击中重新站了起来，经济迅速恢复增长，各行各业也在复苏，这让市场看到了希望，期待其他国家也能逐渐恢复。

欧美股市在过去几周以来不断“收复失地”，但从本周各资产的价格变化看来，市场变得更加谨慎了。两股势力正在较劲，一方对未来长期看好，另一方面则更现实，关注眼前正在面临的情况。

In the US we are seeing the significant increase in cases reaching 185,000 daily new cases just yesterday, and they remain on a sharp trajectory higher, as partial and full lockdowns start to get initiated across some states including NYC and California. The near term outlook for virus impact looks bleak. If we add into that the fact the government, in the midst of a messy transition of power between Donald Trump's Republican party to Joe Biden's Democrat party seems incapable of putting politics to one side, and agree to a much needed relief package.  Despite Trump retracting 3 of his legal actions having claimed the election process was rigged, he is neither gracefully conceding the election nor looking to step back from active leadership or decision making.

在美国，新冠确诊病例数增速丝毫不减，昨天一日的新增病例数就超过了18.5万人，并且增长曲线呈直线上涨趋势。本周，包括纽约州和加利福尼亚州在内的部分州决定开始实施部分封锁或全面封锁措施。

短期来看，新冠病毒的阴霾将继续笼罩在美国头上。特朗普和他的共和党以及拜登和他的民主党之间的权力交接进程仍一片泥泞，双方都不能暂时将政治利益搁置一边，专注于当下紧要的抗疫纾困计划。尽管特朗普撤回了3个质疑选举被操控的法律诉讼，然而他也并没有优雅地承认选举结果，或放弃他国家领导者的位置。

Last night we heard from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that Trump's government plans to ask the Fed to return the unused Care Act funds and offer no extension to the Emergency Lending Program. This act was immediately questioned by the Fed, and whilst these provisions have not been utilised to date, every Central Bank needs an arsenal of options, particularly as it would appear the US has not yet reached the eye of the second wave pandemic storm. Such aggressive action would typically wipe roughly 1% off the stock markets, but after a mini wobble they again show resilience, firstly due to the fact Trump has lost credibility and its thought most actions authorised by him whilst still clinging to power this year will be unwound when Biden comes to power. Secondly and probably more importantly, there is an unquestionable bid tone to the markets, whereby even in a week where the market had opportunities to go down, the moves were never entirely sustained. The stay at home and tech stocks that had struggled in the last few weeks again came back into favour. Therefore if the delivery and distribution of a vaccine across the globe prove successful we could well see a continuation of the upward trend especially when the economic data signals normalisation.

周四晚，美国财政部长姆努钦致信鲍威尔称，特朗普政府希望美联储能归还此前疫情救援计划中尚未动用的资金，并要求美联储不得在紧急贷款计划到期日（12月31日）后继续延长。

这样的决定立刻激起了美联储的不满，尽管这些资金暂时还没有使用，但作为中央银行，美联储需要储备充沛的“兵器库”，尤其是在美国仍未到达第二轮疫情风暴眼的情况下。

如此激进的动作通常会连累股市出现1%左右的下跌，但股市却在摇摇晃晃中坚持住了，这首先是因为特朗普已经失信，他在“离职”前所批准的大多数政令也将在拜登继任后被取消；其次也更为重要的是，市场仍沉浸在买入的情绪中，即便市场仍有下行风险，跌势也总被多头势力止住。并且，在此前几周中表现不佳的“居家概念股”也重获偏爱。

因此，如果任何一个疫苗能够在全球范围内被成功接种，经济数据指标正常化后，股市将很可能继续如今的上升趋势。

Europe continues to struggle with the virus and whilst this week hasn't seen significant increases of cases in most countries, it has not significantly abated with more platoeing at high levels, this despite the fact that at the end of next week we will be closing in on a month of lockdowns. It's hoped that across the bloc, we start to see numbers declining as we move towards the Christmas Holidays. The Eurozone Recovery Fund is also causing the issues with Poland and Hungary vehemently objecting to the implications and obligations of the agreement capping the Euro's progress on the week at 1.1900 against the weakened (through risk) US Dollar.   

欧洲本周并没有从疫情的阴影中摆脱出来。尽管大多数欧洲国家的病例增长有所减缓，但下周末就是为期一个月的封锁结束的日子了，然而增长曲线却仍然处在高位平台期。人们期待新冠病例能在圣诞节前出现下降。

由于波兰和匈牙利否决了欧盟2021年至2027年的财政预算，欧洲恢复基金因此难以启动。这样的消息将欧元兑美元限制在了1.1900水平。美元本身也因市场风险偏好下降的原因而走弱。

Brexit progress also remains limited as deadlines continue to be pushed from week to week. There remains strength in the Pound despite the lack of progress with it probing the 1.3315 level against the US Dollar twice this week. With positive Retail Sales data today being the only real supporting factor of strength. There have been comments of positivity regarding the finalization of a deal, but they have been almost exclusively out of the UK camp with the EU still citing significant differences. Even despite EU members pushing Barnier for a no-deal plan and a delay and migration to online talks, due to a member of the EU team testing positive for the virus the pound remains resilient as we move into year end.

随着一周周时间的流逝，英国距离“脱欧”协议最后期限越来越近，但商议却仍然毫无进展。尽管如此，英镑仍然坚挺，英镑兑美元本周两次试探1.3315水平，唯一可以支持英镑的积极数据是优于预期的零售销售额。

我们所听到的有关“脱欧”协议的积极消息几乎都是“英国阵营”这边发出来的，欧盟方面仍然称双方存在较大分歧。尽管欧盟成员国敦促欧盟方“脱欧”首席谈判官巴尼耶为“无协议脱欧”做好准备，以及双方谈判因为一名欧盟成员确诊新冠而转为网上对话，但英镑仍然站稳了脚跟。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - With it being a bank holiday in Japan the first meaningful data comes in Europe with a day of PMI Services and Manufacturing data from France, Germany, Eurozone, UK and the US.  In the US time zone we hear from UK MPC member Haldane before the UK Monetary Policy Report hearings.

周一是日本的公共假期。法国、德国、欧元区、英国和美国将相继发布服务业PMI和制造业PMI数据。英国货币政策委员会成员Haldane将发表讲话，并在之后发布货币政策报告。

Tuesday - German GDP and Ifo business climate hearings dominate the morning, with UK MPC member Haskell speaking and UK CBI data also coming later in the morning.  In the afternoon US Consumer Confidence and the UK's Autumn Forecast Statement from Rishi Sunak.

上午数据有德国GDP以及Ifo商业景气指数，英国货币政策委员会成员Haskell将发表讲话，之后英国将发布CBI数据。下午时段发布的数据包括美国消费者信心指数，英国财政大臣苏纳克将发布英国秋季预测声明。

Wednesday - First up we hear from the RBNZ’s Orr before CPI data from Japan. In the US session we get US GDP, Durable Goods, Wholesale Inventories and Weekly Jobless numbers. At 3pm we get Core PCE, Consumer Sentiment and Personal Income and Spending data.

我们首先听到新西兰联储主席奥尔的讲话，之后获得日本CPI数据。北美时段，我们将得到美国GDP、耐用品订单、批发库存以及周失业人数。下午3点，我们将得到核心PCE、消费者情绪以及个人收入和支出等数据。

Thursday - (US Thanksgiving Holidays) German GFK data starts the datacard as well as Eurozone Money Supply and Private Loans numbers. In the middle of the trading day we get ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

周四是美国的感恩节。欧洲方面数据包括德国GFK数据以及欧元区货币供应和私人贷款额。

Friday - With much of the US still on Thanksgiving holidays it will be another quiet data day. In the morning we get German import prices French Consumer Spending, Prelim CPI and GDP. From the UK we get the Nationwide House Price Index.

周五仍然数据较少，上午我们将得到德国进口价格，以及法国消费者支出、预备CPI以及GDP等数据。英国方面发布Nationwide房屋价格指数。