As countries around the world remain in lockdown and incubation fearful of the effects of the Coronavirus, we are just starting to obtain tangible information on the true impacts on the economy as last week brought the first piece of meaningful data since the virus hit Stateside. As cases throughout the US hit 137,000 with a death toll of around 2,400 it is still very much in its acceleration phase with Trump’s advisor Dr Fauci warning that the death toll could reach 100,000 - 200,000 citizens. Trump himself has had to roll back on his pledge to have the economy and business operational by Easter, and over the weekend warned that we could be in for a prolonged period of shutdown.

由于担心冠状病毒的传播，世界各国仍处于封锁期中。上周，美国发布了自受到病毒影响以来的第一批有意义的数据，我们这才刚刚切实地了解到病毒对美国经济的真正影响。截至周日，美国全境病例达到13.7万例，死亡人数超过了2400，并且美国仍然还在加速阶段。美国总统特朗普的顾问弗契博士警告称，最终死亡人数可能达到10万-20万。特朗普也不得不放弃他此前所声称的，在复活节之前恢复经济和商业运作的承诺，并且在周末警告“我们可能会延长停工期”。

With the US economy looking to be blighted by the virus, that is not the only battle it is facing, there is also a battle going on over the oil price, with the opportunistic Saudi’s and Russia spotting the vulnerability and fragility of the US and with oil prices low due to a natural slowdown in demand following what looks set to be a significant period of grounding of Air Travel, rather than halt supply to support price, both capitalising nations have kept pumping the result of which has Oil opening the week near $20 per barrel less than half the price it costs to extract it. 

Considering both of these weighting factors, last week’s US Weekly Unemployment claims was expected to jump significantly from around a 100-200k print to 1 million but the actuality was 3.28 million new unemployment claims in the space of a week, a staggering number of freshly unemployed which of course weighed heavily on the performance of the US Dollar against most assets. 

来自病毒的打击并不是美国经济所面临的唯一战役。由于沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯抓住了美国此时的脆弱，同为石油出口国的美国在油价方面也正进行着一场战斗。

由于航空业将长期几乎陷入停滞状态，对石油的需求自然放缓导致油价走低。沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯两个石油出口大国并未选择停止供应来防止油价下跌，而是继续生产，这导致本周石油开盘价接近20美元/桶，还不到开采成本的一半。

考虑到病毒和油价这两个压力因素，外界在上周发布美国每周失业救济申请人数发布前预期，人数将从约10万-20万的水平大幅增加至100万，然而，当实际数据发布时，人们惊讶于一周内竟有328万个新的失业救济申请。这个惊人数字让美元对大多数资产的表现承压。

In the stock markets there was a slight pullback as the collapse halted and we finished the week on a slightly more positive note. This has brought some perhaps optimistically call this a bottom of the markets, naturally this was aided by the $2 Trillion Dollar aid package agreed on Friday with question remaining, will it be enough? Whilst it is good to see an end to the continual rout of the markets, perhaps calling the bottom maybe a little optamistic just yet with the States still moving towards the eye of the virus storm. 

股市方面，崩盘终于停止，股市略有回调，上周收盘略微乐观。这样的市场表现或许让一些人开始乐观地相信，市场已经触底。毋庸置疑，市场的回调得益于上周五商定的2万亿美元的援助方案。但现在要解答的问题是：2万亿美元够了吗？

尽管我们都很乐于看到市场回暖，但鉴于世界各国仍处在病毒风暴中，现在就认定已经到达谷底的观点或许有些过于乐观了。

In Europe, we are enduring continuous lockdowns and seeing cases grow and medical resources being stretched. It is Italy which has been shown to be the primary epicenter of European infection, deaths exceeded the 10,000 mark over the weekend, but, thankfully cases are showing the signs of reduction. Despite the reductions, it looks likely that Italy will extend the lockdown period beyond the 3rd April date that was originally specified. There is growing unrest about the speed of reaction by the EU from Italians and the Spanish and it remains doubtless that the collective union will be tested to the maximum as this situation unfolds. Despite this, the Euro enjoyed one of its strongest weeks against the US Dollar last week, however the primary driver was the weaker Dollar. 

在欧洲，封锁期仍在持续，病例不断增加，医疗资源紧张的问题日益凸显。意大利处在欧洲的感染中心地带，在上个周末，意大利的死亡人数超过了1万。但值得庆幸的是，病例增长开始呈下降趋势。

尽管新增病例有所减少，但意大利似乎有可能延长之前设定的封锁期限——4月3日。意大利和西班牙国民对欧盟的反应速度愈发不满，随着情况的发展，欧盟将毫无疑问面临最大程度的考验。即便如此，上周欧元兑美元表现仍然十分强劲，但主要原因是美元的疲软。

In the UK Prime Minister Johnson announced that he has the virus as well as some of his cabinet members, with the Virus also hitting the royal family as Prince Charles tested positive. Whilst the panic buying seems to have slowed down slightly, cases continue to grow in the UK as we move towards what expected to be the more infectious period. Similarly to the rest of the world, where major funding packages have been pledged by Government and Central Banks to support businesses and citizens, the challenge now remains actually getting that money flowing. The financial aid packages in the UK are deemed sufficient to support, but as yet they remain conceptual, with no firm or available portals yet available to access the required funding. As expected last week the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% having cut and announced Quantitative easing the week prior. 

英国方面，首相约翰逊宣布，他和他的一些内阁成员都感染了病毒。英国王室也未能幸免，查尔斯王子的检测结果呈阳性。随着我们进入病毒传染更强烈的阶段，英国的病例将继续增加，同时恐慌性囤货似乎略有放缓。

与世界上的其他地区类似，英国政府和中央银行已承诺提供大笔资金以支持企业和居民。目前，英国的挑战实际上仍然是增加资金流动性。人们认为，英国的经济援助计划本身足以支持本国度过危机，但它们仍然是概念性的，目前还不知道如何获取援助资金。正如上周预期的那样，英格兰银行在降息和宣布量化宽松后，维持0.1％的利率不变。

In the week ahead again all eyes will be on the virus case numbers across the globe with this overtaking the financial data for now. 

在接下来的一周中，所有人的目光都将集中在全球的病毒病例数上，金融数据已退居配角。

The Week Ahead:

Monday

·       BOE Consumer Credit – UK 英国央行消费者信贷–英国

·       Business Confidence – Eurozone 商业信心–欧元区

·       Consumer Confidence – Eurozone 消费者信心–欧元区

·       Industrial Sentiment – Eurozone 工业情绪–欧元区

·   Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index – US 达拉斯联储制造业指数–美国

·   GfK Consumer Confidence – UK GfK消费者信心指数-英国

Tuesday

·       NBS Manufacturing PMI – China NBS制造业PMI –中国

·       Unemployment Rate – Germany 失业率–德国

·       GDP Growth – UK GDP增长–英国

·       Housing Prices – UK 房屋价格–英国

·       Inflation Rate – Eurozone 通货膨胀率–欧元区

·       Chicago PMI – US 芝加哥PMI –美国

·       Home Price – US 房屋价格–美国

Wednesday

·       Caixin Manufacturing PMI – China 财新制造业PMI –中国

·       Retail Sales – Germany 零售销售额-德国

·       Markit Manufacturing PMI – IT, FR, DE, Eurozone, UK, US 马基制造业PMI – 意大利、法国、德国、欧元区、英国、美国

·       ADP Employment Change – US ADP就业变化-美国

·       ISM Manufacturing Employment, PMI, New Orders – US ISM制造业就业、PMI、新订单–美国

Thursday

·       Initial Jobless Claims – US 初请失业金人数-美国

·       Factory Orders – US 工厂订单–美国

Friday

·   Markit Service PMI – IT, FR, ES, DE, Eurozone, UK, US 马基服务业PMI – 意大利、法国、西班牙、德国、欧元区、英国、美国

·   Non-Farm Payrolls – US 非农就业人数-美国

·   ISM Service PMI – US ISM服务PMI –美国