首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:美联储继续“放鸽”,美元强势反弹!对冲基金爆仓将继续发酵?

双语:美联储继续“放鸽”,美元强势反弹!对冲基金爆仓将继续发酵?


上周,美联储主席鲍威尔多次露面发表讲话,试图平息市场对美国国债的需求。在美联储持续不断地重申谨慎立场的情况下,美元确立反弹格局。美元涨势导致英镑兑美元跌破1.3700水平,欧元兑美元回落至1.1750水平。

Last week we heard From Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on numerous occasions as he sought to quell the market driven appetite for US Treasury bonds. As he continually reiterated the Fed’s cautionary stance, it was just enough to halt the continuation of the move and brought renewed US Dollar buying. The UK’s Pound slipped below 1.3700 and the EUR/USD rate fell to near 1.1750 as the greenback surged.

 

股市在上周临近收盘时表现强劲,标普500和道琼斯指数收盘价冲击历史高点。由于股市板块轮动,在2020年大放异彩的科技巨头们变得马力不足,为周期股让位,纳斯达克因此也难以追赶其他两大股指。

Stocks had a strong end to the week with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed near all time highs with the Nasdaq not quite following as the rotation out of the 2020 fastest horses in Tech brough gains to cyclical stocks.

 

上周五,一家对冲基金因保证金问题强制平仓,引发了大量市场抛售。人们都在担心,此次抛售将在新一周开盘后继续影响美股走势。

However a ripple of concern overshadows the start to what could be a volatile week as concerns grow of a Hedge fund liquidation of positions following a margin call, bringing a flood of selling to Fridays close.

 

本周一开盘,欧洲银行股时刻胆战心惊。北美早盘时段,市场也在密切关注那些可能会受到影响的机构,其中野村证券和瑞士信贷已经发布了亏损预警,野村证券开盘下跌15%。

Banking stocks trade nervously in Europe into the US session as the markets look to see which banks hold exposure to the hedge funds with Nomura and Credit Suisse already warning of profit impacts, with the former opening 15% down in early trading.

 

随着我们来到了月末和季度末的再调整阶段,市场流动性降低,这件事如何发酵将值得关注。

It will be interesting to see how this stork pans out especially in a low liquidity week encompassing month and quarter end rebalancing.

 

全球新冠疫苗接种方面,美国已有超过2500万人接种了疫苗第一剂,并且目前以每日300万剂疫苗的速度进行接种,美国市场感受到乐观情绪。

As the global vaccination campaign continues to grow in pace with over 250 million US citizens having had at least one vaccination, and roughly 3 million a day being vaccinated the US Markets certainly seem to be looking beyond the virus.

 

在英国,新冠确诊病例、死亡人数和住院人数都在持续减少,本周一(3月29日)是英国初步解除部分封锁的日子。尽管英国首相约翰逊警告称,英国将很快像欧洲一样面临第三波疫情的来袭,但总体上来看,目前的成果已足够让民众产生希望。

In the UK the cases numbers, deaths and hospitalisations continue to fall and today marks the lifting of moderate social restrictions. Hopes are for continuous progression despite the UK Prime Minister warning of the dangers of a third wave as is being experienced currently in mainland Europe.

 

欧洲仍然深陷疫苗供给不足的难题,无论是阿斯利康被短暂叫停,还是欧洲在采购疫苗和接种疫苗方面的落后,都让欧洲的疫情雪上加霜,病例数迟迟无法好转。随着复活节假期即将到来,包括德国、法国和西班牙在内的多个欧洲国家政府均加强了抗疫措施。

Sluggish vaccine procurement and rollout was unaided by the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine has blighted the progress in Europe, with case numbers heading in the wrong direction heading into the Easter holidays pressure remains on European governments as they continue to enhance restrictions in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

 

即便欧洲在抗疫方面差强人意,但德国达克斯指数上周却表现强劲。欧元未来走势恐将不佳,预计欧元兑美元和欧元兑英镑将继续向下突破。

Despite this the German Dax had a good week following the global stock markets higher, but concerts remain for the path of the Euro with the downside favoured against the US Dollar and UK Pound.

 

The Week Ahead:

 

Tuesday - Start with Japan's Retail Sales and Unemployment data. In the European session we get German CPI and Import Prices before Spanish CPI. In the US session we hear from Quarles and Williams of the Fed

周二最先发布的是日本零售业销售额以及失业数据。欧盘时段,我们将获得德国CPI、德国进口价格以及西班牙CPI。美联储成员Quarles和Williams将发表讲话。

 

Wednesday - From New Zealand we get the ANZ Business Confidence. Japan's Industrial Production and Housing starts come alongside PMI data from China and Australia's Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit.  UK GDP, Current Account and Nationwide HPI and Revised Business Investment comes before French Consumer Spending and Prelim CPI and German Unemployment data, Eurozone and Italian CPI. Stateside we get ADP Employment, Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales.

新西兰澳新银行发布商业信心指数。日本发布工业产值和住房数据。中国发布PMI数据。澳大利亚发布新建房屋许可和私人部门信贷数据。英国发布GDP、经常账户、Nationwide银行HPI以及修订商业投资。法国发布消费者支出和预先CPI。其他数据包括德国失业数据、欧元区CPI和意大利CPI。北美方面,我们将获得ADP就业数据、加拿大GDP、芝加哥PMI以及待完成房屋销售。

 

Thursday - Aussie Retail Sales start a busy day that sees Manufacturing PMI from Japan, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, UK, Eurozone, Switzerland and the US. Additionally we get German and Swiss Retail Sales, US Weekly Unemployment and Construction data and there are OPEC meetings throughout the day.

周四最早发布的数据是澳大利亚零售业销售额,随即发布的是来自日本、意大利、德国、法国、西班牙、英国、欧元区、瑞士以及美国的制造业PMI。此外,我们还将获得德国和瑞士发布的零售业销售额、美国周失业人数和建筑数据。全天都将有OPEC会议举行。

 

Friday - Bank holidays throughout Europe for Easter. In the US session we get Non Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate numbers.

周五这天是欧洲各国的复活节假期。美国将发布非农就业人口、平均小时收入以及失业率等数据。

 

 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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