整个三月，我们的关注点都聚焦在持续看涨的美国国债收益率上面。由于债市给出的反应预示着比预想更快的经济反弹，人们都在猜测美联储是否会悄然加息，但鲍威尔仍在上周举行的美联储会议上重申了他一贯的鸽派看法和谨慎立场。同时通过美联储公布的点阵图，人们猜测在2022年将有可能出现一次加息。

As has been apparent throughout March, the focus remains on US bond yields as they retain a bullish bias. The arrival of last week's Federal Reserve rate setting meeting did little to disrupt the trajectory of the bond markets as Fed leader, Jerome Powell continued to reiterate the committees dovish and cautionary stance in spite of the reaction seen in the bond markets as the bet on a quicker bounce in the economy, and a move to higher rates sooner than the Fed seem to want to let us know. There was the slightest shift from the fed as the future rate predictor dot plot alluded to a potential rate hike in 2022.

美联储的预期加剧了人们对通货膨胀的担忧情绪。随着美国刺激计划的发放，美国市场涌入一批资金，据预期，有30%至40%的刺激计划资金将被投资者投向股市。

The Feds outlook fuelled inflation concerns especially with the US markets awash with stimulus money, with it expected that 30-40% of the cheques written Stateside expected to hit the stock market.

上周的前半段时间里，标普500和道琼斯指数冲击新高，引领了股市的一波涨势。纳指则表现欠佳，这是因为投资者们纷纷将资金转投向了价值型股票，另外拜登酝酿加税计划更加剧了投资者想要“逃离”科技股的想法。

In the earlier part of last week the stock market surged with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting new highs as the tech heavy Nasdaq lagged behind as investors rotated investment into value stocks, with fears of a Biden tech tax at some point nagging at investors minds.

在上周的后半段，美股收跌。本周一开盘，全球股市都不敢轻举妄动，这是因为上周六出了一件大事，前土耳其央行行长阿巴尔被土耳其总统埃尔多安解任了。行长换人一事被认为与3月18日土耳其央行加息有关，因为总统埃尔多安先前曾表达过反对高利率的观点。

The stock markets tailed off towards the end of the week starting Monday with a cautionary approach with politics and central banking going head to head in Turkey leading to President Erdogan dismissing the head of the central bank for an unexpected rate hike late last week, with the President having differing views on the control of inflation.

如此重大的事件导致了土耳其里拉开盘暴跌15%，而股市方面，市场密切关注那些土耳其风险敞口较大的公司，土耳其期信用违约互换（CDS）创历史最大涨幅。

Such an aggressive move had a dramatic effect, as the Turkish Lira fell as much as 15% at the open and from a stock perspective the markets looked to see which global Banks and companies had exposure to Turkey, with Turkish credit default swaps being in heavy demand.

英国方面，周末的新闻报道称，英国已有超过半数的成年人接种了新冠疫苗的第一剂。卫生大臣汉考克汇报称，确诊病例数已减少至目标水平。这意味着，英国政府制定的逐步解封计划是可以达到的。

For the UK there was coverage in the press over the weekend that half of the UK’s adult population had now had at least one covid vaccine. Matt Hancock also updated that lower case targets were being met, meaning that the government's path or plan to unlock the nation and economy remain achievable.

今早发出来的一篇文章认为，欧盟可能会在阿斯利康满足欧盟订单之前阻止其对外出口疫苗。对于欧洲来说，接种疫苗之路充满了荆棘。先是在已经落后于其他国家的情况下迟迟收不到阿斯利康的疫苗供给，之后还因为丹麦有人在接种了阿斯利康疫苗后出现凝血现象，欧盟在上周暂停了接种该疫苗。

There is a concerning article in the press this morning alluding to the fact the EU could block the supply of AstraZeneca produced vaccine and ingredients therin, until the manufacturer meets its EU order obligations, however this has subsequently been denied. For Europe, the path to vaccine remains fraught with issues, having had supply of the AZ vaccine cut when they were already behind the curve on vaccine delivery last weeks temporary banning of their vaccine after instances of blood clotting in Denmark will not have helped.

随后，欧盟卫生官员在上周五表示，疫苗的好处大于风险，欧洲各国重新使用阿斯利康疫苗继续接种计划。同时，随着欧洲迎来了第三轮疫情，包括法国、意大利和德国在内的欧洲国家再次推行了更为严格的封锁措施和宵禁措施。

A statement from the EU health authorities on Friday claimed that the vaccine benefits far outweigh the risk has meant many countries have restarted the use of the drug. Many countries across Europe are also having to enter enhanced lockdowns and curfews, France, Italy and Germany acting in the last week as Europe appears to be entering/in a third wave of the pandemic.

本周，美国、英国和亚洲各国的任何疫情变化都将受到密切关注，如果病例数再次出现明显增长，这些国家政府的民意支持将受到影响。

Cases will have to be closely watched this week and with the public looking at the US, UK and Asia progress this will likely scar political populism in these countries.

尽管欧洲疫情不容乐观，但抛开美元上涨的因素来看，欧元受影响却不大，同时继续承受下行压力。

Despite this the Euro has remained undamaged if we strip out the performance against the surging US Dollar, but the downside feels vulnerable.

Have a great week ahead!

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday - A big day of data for the UK with Unemployment, Average Earnings and Claimant Count Employment data, as well as Industrial Orders and Haldane, Bailey and Cunliffe speaking. In the US session the highlight is a testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Brainard and Williams speaking in the afternoon.

英国将发布失业人数、平均收入、失业救济金领取人数和工业订单等众多数据，英国央行货币政策委员会委员Haldane和Cunliffe以及央行行长贝利会发表讲话。美国方面，美联储主席鲍威尔以及美联储成员Brainard和Williams会在下午发表讲话。

Wednesday - Australian Trade Balance and Japan's Manufacturing PMI comes early before UK CPI, RPI and PPI inflation data. Following that we get Manufacturing and Services from France, Germany, Europe, UK and laterly the US. From the States we also get Durable Goods and another Powell testimony. There is also Eurozone Consumer Confidence and the ECB’s Lagarde speaking before a host of Fed speakers.

最先发布的是澳大利亚贸易差额和日本制造业PMI，之后是英国CPI、RPI以及PPI通胀数据，紧接着是来自法国、德国、欧洲、英国以及美国的制造业和服务业数据。美国还将发布耐用品订单数据，美联储众多成员将发表讲话。欧洲方面有欧元区消费者信心指数的发布，以及欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话。

Thursday - BOJ’s Kuroda talks early before German GfK Consumer Climate data. The ECB’s Economic Bulletin and Money Supply data comes in the am as well as Central Bank speakers in the BOE’s Bailey and Lagarde. In the US session we get GDP and weekly Unemployment, with Williams, Bostic, Evans, Clarida and Daly of the Fed all talking.

日本央行行长黑田东彦将在周四发表讲话。德国发布GfK消费者信心数据。欧洲央行发布经济公报以及货币供应数据。英格兰银行行长贝利和欧洲央行行长拉加德都将发表讲话。美国将发布GDP和周失业人数等数据，多名美联储成员将发表讲话。

Friday - German import prices  and Ifo come early alongside UK Retail Sales with the EU Economic Summit running all day. In the US session we get PCE Price Index, Goods Trade Balance, Personal Income & Spending, Prelim Wholesale Inventories and UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

周五最早发布的数据是来自德国的进口价格和Ifo经济数据。英国将发布零售业销售额。欧盟经济峰会将在全天召开会议。美国发布PCE价格指数、商品贸易差额、个人收入和支出、预先批发库存，以及来自密歇根大学的消费者情绪和通胀预期数据。