本周，随着疫情后时代来临的希望越来越大，受经济复苏的乐观情绪刺激，以美国债券市场为代表的债市重获新生，债券收益率最高上涨0.8%。
This week saw the bond markets and in particular the US bond markets wake up to the possibility of life beyond the pandemic with bond yields increasing by as much as 0.8% buoyed by optimism for an economic recovery post pandemic.
全球范围内的新冠疫情逐渐得到控制，英国和美国分别完成了占总人口25%和15%的疫苗接种率。我们欣慰地看到，一切都在朝着好的方向发展。从债券市场的角度来看，财政刺激将带来大量资金注入，那么长期以来持观望态度的世界各国央行决策者们如果想要阻止进一步通胀，就势必会开始考虑实行利率正常化政策。
As global infections continue to fall and vaccinations nearing 25% in the UK and 15% Stateside it seems we are heading in the right direction finally. The bond market seems to be viewing that with fiscal stimulus bringing the required cash injection which could ultimately bring a wave of cash that could prompt the seemingly sidelined global central bankers to think about a normalisation of interest rates to stem higher inflation.
在经历一段低迷期后，投资者从避险资产转向增值型债券的情况并不少见。但我们往往会面临几个问题，第一个问题是时机——“我是不是行动得太早了？”尽管新冠疫情有较大的改善，但基数仍然偏高，以及对病毒变种的担忧仍然存在。
Whist it's not uncommon to see a migration to growth bonds from safe haven assets post a downturn. The first concern of this is are they going in too early, as whilst infection numbers are vastly improving, the base levels are still high, with vaccine effectiveness against strain variants still a concern.
第二个问题则是股债联动关系。在本周初，美股一如既往冲击新高，但却在周中出现盘整，这并不是由于价格恐慌导致的，而是受到债券收益率升高的影响，投资者对股市收益需求提高所导致的。
The second concern that has been mulled, but not overly reacted to this week is the implication on the stock markets. At the start of the week, like many others this year we saw new highs made in the US markets but that started to tail off into midweek as concerns over higher bond yields matching earnings brought consolidation, but not price panic.
外汇市场方面，英镑兑美元触及1.4000水平，是2018年以来最高。英国如今被认为是抗疫方面最新“标兵”，尽管“脱欧”方面仍有部分亟待解决的问题，但随着感染率下降三分之二，疫苗接种有序进行，英国已经展现了复苏的初步迹象。英首相约翰逊将在下周公布他所制定的复苏计划，外界预期这可能将会是英国结束封锁期的开始。
In the currency markets the US Dollar traded heavy bringing the UK’s Pound above and beyond 1.4000 level not seen since 2018. The UK is seen to be coming through the pandemic well and whilst Brexit is not yet entirely behind the country the initial signs of recovery are good, with infections levels down by two thirds and a proactively delivering a solid vaccination programme. As such, it's expected that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will unveil his road map to recovery next week as he signals the start of the nation's release from lockdown.
在英镑因好消息而应声大涨之后，约翰逊随即表示，他将在专业医疗专家的建议下来决定是否结束封锁。鉴于英国感染人数仍然较高，约翰逊如此发言也实属明智之举。
Whilst the Pound has soared on the news of a return towards normalisation, the PM has been quick to quell expectation by underpinning the fact that this time he will be following medical advice to thwart further lockdowns in the future. With infection numbers still high even at the vastly improved levels he would be wise to do so.
在欧元兑英镑这一头寸上，我们仍然坚持此前的观点，即看空欧元，本周的价格变动也的确印证了这一观点。背后的原因依然是欧洲在应对新冠疫情和分发疫苗方面差强人意的表现。
We reiterate our view that a short EUR/GBP position is still our position of choice as it continued to fall this week. The reasons remain constant in that Europe is still struggling to deal with the virus and vaccination programmes.
尽管英镑近日涨势如虹，但目前的价格仍然属于“折扣价”。欧洲央行仍然希望通过欧元贬值来刺激出口，因此欧元是一个很好的做空选择。
Whilst newly elevated in price the Pound still remains heavily discounted and with the ECB resolute in the demand for a lower Euro to stimulate exports the Euro seems a logical choice to short.
在经济数据方面，英国也较欧元区更胜一筹。尽管英国央行利率决策者们总是提及负利率，但市场目前似乎仍然不为之所动。
UK data also continues to outperform the Eurozone, and whilst Bank of England rate setters have continued to jawbone about the possibility of negative rates in the UK, the market isn't buying into that at this time.
Have a great week ahead
The Week Ahead:
Monday - We start the week with German Ifo Business Climate and Bundesbank monthly report. In the US session we get the US Leading Index and late on New Zealand’s Retail Sales.
最早发布的数据是德国Ifo经济景气指数和德国央行月度报告。北美时段，我们将得到美国领先指数和新西兰零售业销售额。
Tuesday - A busy day starts with Australian Trade Balance data followed by UK Claimant Count and Jobless data as well as Average Earnings. Eurozone CPI is next up and UK CBI. In the US session we have Fed Reserve Head Jay Powell testifying and US CB Consumer Confidence and the Bank of Canada’s Macklem talking.
周二数据较多，先是澳大利亚贸易差额；之后是英国失业救济人数、失业数据和平均收入；最后是欧元区CPI和英国CBI数据。北美时段，美联储主席鲍威尔会发表讲话，美国发布美国咨商会消费者信心指数，加拿大央行行长Macklem发表讲话。
Wednesday - A quieter day that starts with The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision, statement and press conference. Later in the morning we get German GDP and hear from the Bank of England's Haldane,
新西兰联储发布利率决议并举行新闻发布会。晚些时候，德国发布GDP数据，英国央行货币政策委员会成员Haldane发表讲话。
Thursday - New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence and Australia’s Private Business Corporate Expenditure. In the European Session we get German GFK Consumer Climate and Import Prices. Next up is Eurozone Money Supply and Private Loans. From the US we get GDP, Durable Goods, Prelim GDP and Weekly Unemployment.
新西兰发布ANZ商业景气指数，澳大利亚发布私人企业开支。欧盘时段，我们将得到德国GFK消费者信心和进口价格，之后是欧元区货币供应和私人借贷数据。美国将发布GDP、耐用品、预先GDP以及周失业数据。
Friday - Starts with Australia's Private Sector Credit and Japan’s Housing Starts. Next up is Swiss GDP, French Consumer Spending, CPI and GDP and Spanish CPI before the BoE’s Ramsden speaks. In the US Session we get Core PCE Price Index, Trade Balance, Personal Income and Spending as well as Wholesale Inventories, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Spending and Inflation Expectations.
周五最先发布的数据包括澳大利亚私人部门信贷和日本住房数据。之后是瑞士GDP，法国消费者开支、CPI以及GDP，西班牙CPI，以及英国央行成员Ramsden发表讲话。北美时段，我们将得到美国核心个人消费物价指数、贸易差额、个人收入和指出、批发库存、芝加哥PMI，以及密歇根大学消费者指出和通胀预期。
