新的一年到来，希望牛年能为我们带来平安顺遂的好运。尽管全球新冠疫情仍然不容小觑，但目前全球股市还是在美股的带领下“牛”气冲天。

As we welcome in the Lunar New Year, it is with the hopes that this will be a better year.  Yet despite the global impacts of the pandemic global stock continue to sustain the upward trajectory with the US markets leading the way.

疫苗所带来的利好渐渐淡去，本周，美元/日元、美元/英镑、美元/欧元回落。西方国家的疫情近日得以极大改善，然而目前的成果还远远不够，确诊病例数仍然在不断增长。英国和德国先后表示，将继续执行保持社交距离的规定、延长封锁期并加强边境管控。

The “vaccine trade” seemed to drift out of favour this week with the US Dollar slipping back against the Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro.  Whilst the western world still toils with vastly improving, but still alarming numbers of cases, meaning in the last 24 hours we have seen leaders in the UK and Germany hint that social distancing, lockdowns and border controls are to remain active certainly in the near term. 

英国和美国央行均重申，未来将继续维持利率水平不变，并继续财政刺激措施，股市因此更加有了上涨的动力。美国营收季报告表现出色，进一步对上涨趋势加以支撑。

Central bankers from the UK and US have continued to reiterate the desire to hold firm on rates moving forward which coupled with fiscal stimulus, has given the Stock Markets a boost.  Earnings season in the US continues to be supportive of the current trend.  

本周重大经济数据较少，因此意大利候任总理德拉吉有望组建新政府的消息为欧元带来了短暂的安慰。不过，考虑到欧元区国家疫苗分发远远滞后于英美，我们对欧元仍然秉持看空的观点。

In a week that was bereft of any significant economic data, Mario Draghi's path to leadership in Italy has brought much needed solace to the Euro at this early stage. But, we continue to favour downside Euro positions due to the speed of vaccinations in the Eurozone which is lagging far behind the UK and US, with not not dissimilar infection rates per capita.

我们认为，针对欧元下跌所应选择的货币应该是英镑。英镑在经历了“脱欧”和新冠疫情双重打击后已经大打折扣，英国目前在疫苗接种方面表现出色，给英镑带来了很大的上涨空间。英镑兑美元本周表现强劲，达到了1.3860高位，随后在1.3800水平下方巩固。

We retain the view that the currency of choice to hold against the Euro is the UK’s Pound, which battered and bruised by the pandemic and Brexit remains heavily discounted and with a seemingly successful vaccination strategy. The GBP/USD rate hit 1.3860 this week showing considerable appreciation before consolidation below 1.3800 again.  

英国与欧盟之间继续就北爱尔兰地区贸易问题进行对话，在经历了“脱欧”这场离婚大战之后，可想而知双方的商议并不是一件易事。临近周末时英国发布数据，2020年GDP下降近10%，符合预期。人们曾经预想过更差的结果，因此这意味着，英国经济或许能够避免“双底性”衰退。

Ongoing discussions between the UK and EU regarding trade through Northern Ireland remains a concern with common ground remaining hard to find in the aftermath of the Brexit divorce. There was comfort at the end of the week with the UK’s GDP numbers, whilst a contraction of nearly 10% is an obvious but not unexpected return, it was however slightly better than educated consensus and indicates that the UK could potentially avoid a double dip recession.

美国方面，特朗普弹劾案正处于辩论阶段，共和党人支持弹劾从而让特朗普无法再次竞选总统的可能性不大。我们将在下周得知对弹劾案的投票结果。

In the US as the Trump trial continues it looks unlikely that the Republicans will turn against the ex President and cast the required votes to impose a second impeachment barring him from running a future Presidential campaign, but this remains in the balance with it being likely we see a result next week.

本周，众议院投票通过了拜登的向美国民众发放1400美元支票的抗疫纾困计划，该计划随之被提交至众议院以获得最终批准。拜登如今的任务，是在参议院得到两党支持。

This week saw President Joe Biden pass his stimulus plan of $1400 cheques through the House of Representatives but now has the tricker task of reaching a bipartisan agreement in the senate.

在包括特斯拉在内的科技巨头公司的看好下，比特币本周表现强劲。特斯拉还表示，将接受比特币作为购车的支付方式。华尔街巨鳄们也纷纷为其背书，纽约梅隆银行表示将为数字资产提供托管服务，比特币直指5万美元水平。

It was a strong week for Bitcoin following endorsements from big tech companies like Tesla, with the innovative car manufacturer endorsing usage and support of the digital asset as well as Wall Street starting to endorse usage and brokerage services for the product as Bank of New York Mellon announces they will facilitate its trading within their Treasury departments taking Bitcoin up towards the $50,000 level.

 最后，祝您和您的家人新年快乐！

Happy Lunar New Year!

The Week Ahead:

Monday - National Holiday in China runs through till Wednesday with the US also off today. The first data of the day comes for the UK with the Rightmove House Price Index. Next up is Japan’s Revised Industrial Production before Eurozone Industrial Production and Trade Balance, with Eurogroup Meetings running throughout the day. We also get the German Bundesbank Monthly Report.

中国处在全国假期中，放假至周三。周一同时也是美国的公共假期。发布的数据包括英国Rightmove房价指数、日本修订后工业产值，以及欧元区的工业产值和贸易差额等数据。欧元集团将在周一召开会议。此外，德国央行将发布月度报告。

Tuesday - We start with the Minutes of the Australian MPC meeting before Italy’s Trade Balance, Eurozone Employment Change and ZEW Economic Sentiment from the Eurozone and Germany. In the US session we get US Empire State Manufacturing data and the Fed’s Daily speaks. At the end of the session we get Trade Balance data from Japan.

澳大利亚货币政策委员会发布会议纪要。此外，我们还将得到意大利贸易差额、欧元区就业变化，以及欧元区和德国的ZEW经济景气指数等数据。美国方面将发布纽约帝国州制造指数，美联储每日讲话也值得关注。另外，日本将发布贸易差额。

Wednesday - Early on we hear from the RBA’s Kent before UK CPI, RPI and PPI inflation data. In the US session its Canada’s CPI numbers and from the US, Retail Sales and Core and Non-Core PPI before the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the session.

澳联储助理主席肯特将发表讲话。之后，英国会发布CPI、RPI和PPI通胀数据。北美时段，加拿大将发布CPI数据，美国将发布零售业销售额、核心和非核心PPI，以及美国联邦公开市场委员会晚些时候发布的会议纪要。

Thursday - Australian Employment and Unemployment Data starts the day before the UK’s MPC member Saunders speaks. At midday we get the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. In the US Fed member Brainard speaks and the data comes with Philly Fed, Weekly Unemployment, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Import price numbers. Following this, its Eurozone Consumer Confidence and late in the session we get NZ Input and Output PPI and Australian Flash PMI.

周四最先发布的数据是澳大利亚就业和失业数据，之后是英国货币政策委员会成员Saunders的讲话。中午时段，我们将达到欧洲央行货币政策委员会账目。美联储成员Brainard将发表讲话，此外美国还将发布周失业情况、新建许可、住房数据以及进口价格等数据。晚些时候，我们会得到欧元区消费者信心指数、新西兰输入和输出PPI以及澳大利亚预览PMI。

Friday - We get UK GFK Consumer Confidence first up before Australian Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMI from Japan. In the European session we get UK Retail Sales and Public Sector Net Borrowing, German, UK French and Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone Current Account data. In the US Session we get Canadian Retail Sales and US Manufacturing and Services PMI and Existing Home Sales.

英国GFK消费者信心指数最先发布，紧接着是澳大利亚零售业销售额和日本制造业PMI。欧盘时段，我们将达到英国零售业销售额和公共部门净借贷数据，德国、英国、法国和欧元区的服务业和制造业PMI，以及欧元区经常账户数据。美国时段，我们将得到加拿大零售业销售额、美国制造业和服务业PMI，以及美国现有房屋销售数据。