The markets started the week in Asia on Sunday night buoyed by the fact that Joe Biden looked to have secured the Presidency in the US lifting all major indices. Whilst at this time his title still remains officially unconfirmed all major news agencies are now recognising he will ultimately take the White House from Donald Trump. With Trump still failing to understand how the democratic voting system his government put in place works, he remains resolute that cheating had taken place, allowing Biden to have late surges in votes across the country. Whilst logically postal votes (typically supportive of Biden) take longer than polling station votes (more supportive of Trump) this was in hindsight always going to be the case.
从周日晚上亚洲市场开盘开始，“拜登效应”就让各大股指直线上涨。尽管拜登目前还未正式就任总统一职，但各大新闻媒体都已经认定了他终将代替特朗普的事实。
特朗普还没搞清楚民主投票制度是如何运作的，仍然坚持认为是由于大选过程中存在欺诈行为，才使得拜登在计票的后半段反超。理论上来说，邮寄选票（大多数拜登支持者选择的投票方式）必然会比投票站的选票（大多数特朗普支持者选择的投票方式）更晚计算，每次选举往往都是这样。
Generally markets are fearful of contested elections, but the incredibility of Trump's claims with a distinct lack of substance, leaves few with any view other than an eventual Biden win. As such the US markets and markets of countries that had experienced fraught trading relationships with Trump (China, Mexico, Canada and Europe) saw stocks and currencies significantly appreciate as the risk haven US Dollar took a tumble. However with the election contention seemingly out of the way the focus was always going to drift towards a breakthrough in a potential vaccine and late Monday afternoon Pfizer and Biontech announced that they were in the final stages of a vaccine solution which was 90% successful a percentage way higher than even the more optimistic could perhaps have anticipated.
总体上来说，市场很惧怕充满争议的选举结果，但由于特朗普的质疑缺少实质证据的支持，大多数人还是认为，拜登终究会获得胜利。因此，美国股市以及那些曾受特朗普贸易政策困扰的国家的股市（中国、墨西哥、加拿大和欧洲）都出现大涨，并且随着避险货币美元的贬值，上述国家的货币也都随之上涨。
随着选举的尘嚣渐渐远去，人们的注意力又开始转移到了新冠疫苗的研发进展上。本周一下午，美国辉瑞和德国Biontech宣布，其共同开发的新冠疫苗已完成最终阶段试验，并证实疫苗有效性高达90%，远远高出所有人的预期。
With a market underweight in equity investment prior to the election and fearful of the escalation of Covid across the western world, the vaccine news brought stocks sharply higher. Suddenly, the stay at home staples of Zoom and Peloton lost popularity as stock pickers rotated back into old economy favourites buoyed by the thoughts of a potential return to normalisation as we saw a record one week flow into equities. Obviously this news and the fact many other drug companies are alluding to immanent completion of vaccines will likely push stocks higher into Q1 2021.
此前，由于美国大选和欧洲新冠疫情升级等不确定因素的影响，市场一再减持股票投资。而疫苗这一重大消息，让股市立刻受到提振。突然间，因疫情受益的“居家股”，如视频通讯软件Zoom和健身器材公司派乐腾失宠了，投资者开始觉得生活将回到正轨，资金重回传统板块。此外，其他制药公司也各自放出了疫苗研发几近收尾的消息，股市将有极大可能在2021年第一季度冲击新高。
But in the short term, there does still remain headwinds. Firstly, whilst the Presidency race seems run, the transition of power is a lengthy process. With no immediate relief package looking to be agreed until Biden is sworn in, and the trajectory of new cases in the US just at the beginning of the scale of infection seen in Europe and the UK in the second wave it looks like it will be a bleak winter as we wait for the finalisation, production and distribution plan for a vaccine. Indeed across Europe infection rates seem to be topping out, but at critical levels with economic damage that could hamper for years to come.
从短期来看，仍有阻力在限制着股市的上涨。首先，美国总统的权力过渡是一个漫长的过程，在拜登正式宣誓就职前，美国政府不可能立刻拿出一个抗疫纾困法案。第二，参考欧洲和英国此前第二轮疫情的发展轨迹，美国的第二轮疫情才刚刚开始，这个冬天势必将是一个严冬，只能静待疫苗的审批、生产以及分发。
的确，欧洲的新冠感染率似乎已经达到了高峰期，接下来将逐步下降，然而经济所承受的重创将在未来数年持续阵痛。
In the UK, it feels like groundhog day when it comes to Brexit. With England in full lockdown and cases rising the developments Stateside and positive vaccine news has masked the lack of Brexit progress. With the mid November line in the sand date for a deal upon is, there remains little to no meaningful progress. As Boris bill failed in Parliament and with the added weighted pressure of incoming Biden being adamant he won't offer a US/UK trade deal if the UK breach the Irish Good Friday agreement, the pressure is on Boris. For this reason, it seems almost inevitable that concession is given by the UK to formulate a deal, perhaps not within the timescales which are solely set by Westminster. But AGAIN, the next week will be crucial in the Brexit saga with the UK hoping, but not expecting that the PM can impress at this late stage. The markets seem to be pricing in some form of deal as the pound hovers around the 1.3200 level against the US Dollar, with the Footsie also benefiting enormously from the stock and Oil related pick up seen this week.
英国方面，“脱欧”还是日复一日地毫无进展。在英格兰宣布进入封锁期、美国病例激增，大选以及新冠疫苗等众多新闻的掩盖下，似乎没人注意到，尽管11月中旬的“脱欧”谈判最后期限已经逼近，然而我们目前还没有看到任何实质性进展。
英首相约翰逊倍感压力，他的“脱欧”协议并没有在议会得以通过；另一方面的压力来自于拜登的当选，因为拜登此前曾表示过，如果英国执意违反《星期五和平协定》，他在当选总统后将不会与英国签订贸易协议。
因此，英国势必需要作出让步。无论如何，下周对于“脱欧大戏”来说是至关重要的一周，英国将希望寄托在了约翰逊的身上，期盼他能在最后关头完美应对这一危机。
市场价格中反映了达成“脱欧”协议的可能性，英镑兑美元维持在1.3200水平，富时指数也从本周上涨的股票和石油价格中获益。
The Week Ahead:
Monday - Japanese GDP comes in the early hours of Monday before Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment numbers from China. The ECB deliver their Financial Stability Review in the european session with ECB President Lagarde due to also speak. In the US session we get Empire State Manufacturing and the Fed’s Clarida and UK MPC member Haskell speaking.
周一早些时候，日本将发布GDP数据，紧接着是中国发布的工业产值、零售业销售额以及失业数据。欧洲央行将发布《金融稳定报告》，欧洲央行行长拉加德将发表讲话。美国时段，我们将得到帝国州制造业指数，美联储成员Clarida将发表讲话。英国方面，央行货币政策委员会成员Haskell将发表讲话。
Tuesday - Firstly, we get the minutes of the Australian RBA’s MPC meeting. A quiet morning is followed by a busy afternoon, with UK MPC’s Bailey and Ramsden speaking and Retail Sales from the US, and laterly the RBA’s Lowe and Kent both speaking.
最先发布的数据是澳大利亚联储货币政策委员会发布的会议纪要。下午数据较多，在英国货币政策委员会多位成员发表讲话之后，美国将发布零售业销售额数据，澳联储多位成员将发表讲话。
Wednesday - Inflation data dominates the day with numbers from Europe and the UK in the morning and Canada in the afternoon. UK MPC member Haldane and the Fed’s Williams are also speaking.
周三是通胀数据集中发布的一天，包括了欧洲、英国和加拿大。英国货币政策委员会成员Haldane和美联储成员Williams将发表讲话。
Thursday - First comes Australian Employment/Unemployment data before UK CBI Industrial Orders and Eurozone Current Account data. In the US Session we get Philly Fed Manufacturing data and Weekly Unemployment numbers from the US. THe ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks at 3pm.
首先是澳大利亚就业/失业数据，之后是英国CBI工业订单以及欧元区经常账户数据的发布。北美时段，我们将得到费城联储公布的制造业数据和美国周失业人数。下午3点，欧洲央行行长拉加德将发表讲话。
Friday - UK GFK Consumer Sentiment, Aussie Retail Sales and Japanese Manufacturing PMI come very early on in the Asian session. In the European session we get German PPI, UK Retail Sales and Public Sector Net Borrowing before Lagarde speaks at 8.15. In the US time zone we get Canadian Retail Sales and the Fed’s Kaplan speaks.
亚洲时段发布的数据包括英国GFK消费者情绪、澳大利亚零售业销售额以及日本制造业PMI。欧洲时段，我们将得到德国PPI、英国零售业销售额和公共部门净贷款，之后是拉加德的讲话。北美时段，我们将得到加拿大零售业销售额数据，美联储成员Kaplan将发表讲话。
