Whilst we may not be in a state of absolute knowing as yet, the likelihood of a new President in the United States is seemingly obvious, as we await the states which are proving slow to count. Whilst the markets were pricing in a Biden victory, it wasn't all plain sailing on election day, as early in the US evening Trump took a lead in those fast counting states taking stocks off and surging the US Dollar from a “risk” perspective. This wasn't what anyone was expecting and took the world off guard. The Trump victory in Florida, his self declared home state really started to solidify the possibility of him remaining in power.

尽管我们现在还不能下定论，但看上去美国有很大可能会迎来一位新总统了，现在只待计票较慢的州算出结果。

尽管拜登获胜的情况已经被反应在了市场价格中，但大选日还是出现了反转，当日傍晚，特朗普在计票较快的州均处于领先位置，股市因此下跌，避险模式全开使得美元飙升。

这种情况谁也没有料到过，因此打了世界一个措手不及。随着特朗普在“关键战场”佛罗里达州获胜，他连任的可能性变得越来越大。

Whilst this was a surprise, in retrospect it really shouldn't have been, as what was playing out was the fast counting of those who visited the polls, with Biden faring better from postal vote the tortoise and hare scenario should have been expected as biden clawed back the lead to surpass on Wednesday. So for now with Biden just one state away from what seems an obvious victory, the markets have swung back and seem to be on a positive footing, clawing back the painful losses of last week.  Despite legal challenges and accusations of cheating by Trump, the nature of these baseless accusations has investors happy to ignore them and the sector which had been reducing positions into the volatility event, seemed happy to reinstate positions with FAANG again being flavour of the month.

尽管在当时看来，这样的情况出人意料，但现在回想起来，这是因为支持特朗普的选民大多亲自前往投票站投票，他们的票计算起来更快；而部分拜登支持者则是采用邮寄投票方式。在这场龟兔赛跑中，支持拜登的票数最终在周三反超。

目前，拜登距离胜利只差拿下一个州的距离，市场积极反弹，收复了上周的惨痛损失。

尽管特朗普声称计票过程存在作弊行为并表示将提出法律质疑，但他毫无根据的指控并不会影响投资者们，那些因动荡事件而被减持的行业重新获得青睐，几大科技股领头羊（FAANG）再度成为本月明星股。

Whilst the blue wave went off the table as Trump gained the early lead it remains not impossible to be achieved but unlikely, benefiting healthcare and tech stocks. With Biden progressing in vote and the outlying states nearing completion of count, we would expect to know the ultimate result in the next 24 hours with the Senate result expected to take a bit longer.  As previously stated the markets have recaptured the losses made last week, but can they push on. This we expect to come down to whether anyone takes Trump's claim seriously, at this stage the manner of which they are being delivered and lack of meaningful evidence will stand against him with markets completely ignoring his claims last night and marching on 6-7% up in the major indices.

由于特朗普在竞逐早期取得优势，拜登所在的民主党同时控制两院（即“蓝色浪潮”）的可能性降低了，但也不是全无可能。医疗健康和科技板块的股票将因此受益。

随着拜登在大选中的优势基本确定，以及外围州的计票也接近结束，我们将可能在接下来的24小时内得到确切结果。参议院的投票结果将可能需要更长时间。

市场已经挽回了上周的损失，现在的问题是，市场能否继续上涨？我们认为这取决于是否有人对特朗普的话当一回事。目前来说，特朗普团队提出这些指控的方式以及缺少证据支持的事实对他并不有利。市场也完全忽略了他的言论，昨晚主要股指都收涨6%-7%。

IF Biden wins, a lot will come down to his ability to act via the House and Senate, its felt he will certainly be more proactive on the wearing of masks but with Trump supporters already aggrieved at the election outcome, there are fears this will lead to civil unrest stateside and that is a real concern. But, with the US posting 100,000 new virus cases just yesterday action is needed to thwart lockdown. If elected, Biden will also need to quickly implement an aid package to get money to those who are suffering economically due to the virus with mortgage delinquencies on the increase.  Last night brought the interest rate meeting from Jerome Powells Federal Reserve, and with Presidential leadership unknown it was no surprise we so no shift in policy with just 7 words changed in the statement. The Fed did signal that as the virus grips again more aid will be needed into the years end. With Fed aid more aimed at companies than the individual, the incoming President will have to act fast to keep the public and markets happy.

如果拜登最终获胜，人们将关注他接下来在参议院和众议院的领导能力。拜登必然会鼓励民众佩戴口罩，但在特朗普支持者已然对大选结果极度不满的情况下，拜登颁布的任何措施都有引发国内矛盾的风险，这也成为人们担心的问题。

然而，美国昨日新冠新增病例达到了10万人，如果想要避免全国封锁，势必要采取行动。另外，拜登一旦当选，首要任务还有推出抗疫纾困计划，让那些因为疫情而在经济上处于困境的人们能够得到帮助，同时避免贷款违约进一步增加。

美联储昨晚召开了利率决议会议，因为总统选举还未尘埃落定，我们早已猜到这场会议不会带来任何新的消息，就连声明也只改了7个词而已。不过，美联储却有所暗示，随着疫情加重，年底前将会释放更多援助资金。由于美联储的援助更多是针对企业，而不是个人层面的，因此继任的总统需要快速采取行动，让民众和金融市场都能够满意。

In the currency markets the winners this week were the currencies in China, Canada and Mexico, with Biden expected to take a more global approach to leadership and amid the falling US Dollar environment these currencies thrived. The same can be said for the British Pound and the Euro which both had strong weeks against the greenback even despite the escalation of the virus in their territories leading now to significant pressure on hospitals and country wide lockdowns being introduced into early December.  With Brexit still being very much up in the air despite the progress on fishing rights, Barnier commented yesterday that there were still significant concerns that a deal can be reached by mid-month. The outcome of the US election also places pressure on the UK with Biden having previously signalled trepidation on a deal with the UK due to the handling of the Brexit negotiations. On the other hand Europe will be better placed with Biden due to a strained relationship with Trump, however the fact that this is strengthening the Euro causes another headache for the ECB’s Lagarde as she tries to control the spiralling cost of European exports and stimulate the economy internally.

外汇市场方面，本周的大赢家是人民币、加拿大元以及墨西哥比索。这些货币表现强劲，一方面归因于拜登的施政纲领更有利于全球化，另一方面则是因为美元缩水。

同理，尽管英国和欧洲仍然深受新冠影响，医院压力难以化解，并且宣布了全国封锁，但英镑与欧元本周表现也相当不错。

在捕鱼权问题得以解决之后，“脱欧”谈判仍然悬而未决。欧盟首席“脱欧”谈判代表巴尼耶昨天表示，对在本月中前达成协议深表怀疑。

美国大选也让英国倍感压力，因为此前拜登曾表示，由于看到了英国在处理“脱欧”谈判上的方式，他对英美之间的贸易协议谈判深表担忧。

但另一方面，由于此前与特朗普之间的关系并不那么愉快，欧洲乐于看到拜登获得胜利。然而，欧元上涨却让欧洲央行行长拉加德感到头痛，这给她想要控制欧洲出口成本并刺激内部经济的想法增加了难度。

The week ahead will be dominated by headlines on the outcome and potential consequences of legal challenge of the US election result. For now, the market is in buy mode and not even the increased virus cases seem capable of standing in the way of it.

下周的新闻头条仍然将关注在美国大选结果上，以及特朗普是否会对结果提出质疑。目前来看，市场的买入势头正旺，就连新冠病例激增的事实也无法阻挡。

周一 Monday

周一上午将发布德国贸易差额；北美时段，我们将得到美国贷款拖欠数据。

A quiet start to the week with German Trade Balance in the morning and in the US session we get US Mortgage delinquency data.

周二 Tuesday

首先发布的是中国CPI和RPI通胀数据，紧接着是英国失业数据。之后我们会得到法国和意大利的工业产值，以及欧元区ZEW经济景气指数。

First up is CPI and RPI Inflation data from China before UK Unemployment data. We then get French and Italian Industrial production and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment.

周三 wednesday

这天最重要的是新西兰联储发布的利率决议以及声明。美国和加拿大是公共假期，下午时段数据较少。

The main and only significant release is the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed by the statement and press conference. A quiet afternoon with national holidays in the US and Canada.

周四 Thursday

上午来自英国的数据较多，包括GDP、建设数据、贸易差额、工业产值以及制造业数据。之后我们会得到欧元区工业产值，以及美国发布的CPI以及周失业情况。

A big morning of data from the UK, with GDP, Construction, Trade Balance, Industrial Production and Manufacturing numbers. We get Industrial Production from the Eurozone before CPI and weekly unemployment from the US.

周五 Friday

欧元区方面，我们会得到就业数据和季度环比GDP。下午发布的数据包括美国核心和非核心PPO以及密歇根大学消费者情绪以及预期通胀数据。

From the Eurozone we get Flash Employment and GDP q/q. In the afternoon we receive US Core and Non-Core PPI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.