As outgoing President Donald Trump remains in the headlines, the impact of his actions and ultimate eventuality of his term drifts from the focus of the markets, with all eyes and drivers shifted to the soon to be inaugurated President elect Joe Biden. With the ceremony next week (20th January) security will be at its highest level to try and ensure angry protesters from both sides are kept subdued and of course avoid a super spreader event. The impeachment of Trump this week for the second time means he will be departing the White House having lost the election and both the House of Representatives and Senate for the Republican party, as well as being the first President in history to have achieved a brace of impeachments, such a legacy has even some hardened Republicans encouraged at a more stable incoming President, willing Biden to bring economic and social stability in the US.

尽管现任美国总统特朗普仍然以他的方式在霸占着媒体头条位置，然而金融市场已经开始对他的行为变得无感。随着特朗普的任期即将画下句点，如今市场的目光全部聚焦在即将就任的当选总统拜登的身上。

拜登的就职典礼将在下周二（1月20日）举行，为了保证典礼有序进行，防止双方支持者造成混乱，华盛顿已做好高度警戒准备。

本周三，美国国会众议院通过了对特朗普的弹劾议案。因此当他离开白宫的时候，不仅是一个败选的前总统，一个未能帮助共和党保住参众两院大权的人，还成为了美国历史上首位被二度弹劾的总统。特朗普所留下的“政治遗产”让最坚定的共和党人都开始期待起了拜登的到来，希望新总统能为美国带来期盼已久的经济稳定和社会稳定。

Biden has begun his pre-inauguration tenure with a strong start, bringing a $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package to the fore, thus ensuring those suffering due to the economic impacts of the pandemic are sufficiently supported. He is seeking bipartisan support for this package but there may well prove to be questions raised about who will carry the can in the form of taxes to make this happen. This enormous stimulus package was very much expected meaning it bore little impact on the equity markets which have on the whole enjoyed another strong week. It was a week of speakers from the US Federal Reserve with the party line trotted out by all contributors that the Federal Reserve remained in no hurry to taper stimulus and hike rates until inflation sits above 2% again. So with the Government and Central Bank stimulus firmly in place, it's of little surprise that the equity markets are enjoying the buoyancy that we are seeing, indeed the house view remains that we continue to see upside, but in the shorter term there could well be scope for downside corrections with the pace of appreciation slowing somewhat. The swiftly rising cases of the virus in the States could be the most obvious cause and of course any scenes of violence across US cities over the inauguration period are a concern and we wonder if we could see position lightening into the start of next week, potentially drawing the indices off of these highs.

拜登这边，仍未正式就任的他已经为自己的总统任期开了一个好头，公布了一项规模达到1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，旨在挽救新冠病毒肆虐下的美国经济。想要通过这项刺激计划，拜登势必需要来自两党的支持，然而如此庞大的资金从何而来却是个问题，谁想背上提高税收的“这口黑锅”呢？

由于这一巨大的刺激计划早就在市场的预期之中，因此并未对股市产生太大影响。多位美联储成员在本周发表的讲话则至关重要，他们的字里行间均持鸽派立场，并且表示，在未达到2%的通胀目标前，美联储不会急于升息或缩减购债。因此，在吃下美国政府和央行的双重定心丸后，股市受到提振。

的确，我们将在未来一段时间里继续看到上行空间，然而也不能忽视短期修正。美国持续增长的新冠病例数以及对总统就职典礼期间可能会发生暴力事件的担忧或许会促使部分投资者减轻仓位，甚至将美国各大股指拉下历史新高位置，下周我们拭目以待。

It's also been a tough week for the Euro, with Brexit out of the way the galvanising factor of European solidarity has diminished and the cracks are starting to show with outbreaks of political turmoil in Italy and Holland, bringing the Euro significantly lower.  If we add to that rising case numbers across the block with Germany in particular recording their highest daily deaths since the spring and Merkel discussing a “mega lockdown” alongside an increased curfew in France. There are also concerns that the vaccine is not being rolled out fast enough with distribution across the collective bloc adding fuel to in-fighting. For this reason the Euro could well see further downside pressures over the coming weeks, with the ECB minutes this week clearly showing that recent price appreciation in 2020 is cause for concern.

欧元本周不太好过。随着英国“脱欧”这一重大事件落幕退场，让欧盟各国团结起来一致对外的因素不复存在，因此欧盟内部的裂痕也开始显现出来，再加上笼罩在意大利头上的政治阴云，欧元受到波及。

疫情方面也没有任何好消息，德国单日新增新冠死亡病例破纪录，默克尔表示将执行最严格的封锁措施；法国方面也加强了宵禁。由于新冠疫苗分发速度过于缓慢，更是给欧盟各国的暗斗“火上浇油”。本周发布的欧洲央行会议纪要就2020年欧元升值的鸽派看法，更是加剧了欧元近期的下跌势头。

In the UK the Covid infection and death numbers remain unpleasant to say the least. Being front and centre of the second wave and aggressive mutation of the virus is bearing significant implications on the statistics. But the markets are taking solace from the fact for all the UK Governments' faults over the last year, they have been proactive in the handling of vaccination approval and distribution meaning the UK could be well placed to emerge from this sooner. The next few weeks infection numbers will be crucial as we look to see them first plateau before reversing following the heightened lockdowns as the vaccination effects are awaited.  It does seem the markets are looking ahead and the Pound has enjoyed a stronger week briefly touching the 1.3700 area against the US Dollar, and touching critical support levels around 0.8865 against the Euro. Domestically, Prime Minister Boris Johnson does remain under pressure with Conservative peers questioning his roadmap of progression for both the virus and Brexit as we start to see procedural delinquencies of the trade deal start to come to light.

英国本周继续看到新冠确诊病例和死亡人数的增长。作为第二轮新冠疫情的“排头兵”，再加上发现新变种毒株，英国的疫情一直无法得到缓解。然而令市场感到宽慰的是，英国吸取了2020年抗疫过程中获得的经验教训，在近日的疫苗分发中表现出色，这意味着英国或许可以更早从疫情中恢复过来。

接下来的几周至关重要，随着接种疫苗和严格封锁的效应逐渐显现，我们本周已经看到病例增长曲线逐渐平稳化，人们都在关注疫情曲线是否将会出现转折。在这一点上，市场是向前看的，本周英镑表现强劲，兑美元试探1.3700水平，兑欧元触及0.8865水平的关键支撑位。

英国国内方面，由于“脱欧”贸易协议存在程序不清楚等问题，受到英国议会质疑的首相约翰逊倍感压力。

Next week all eyes will be on the US with hope that political sanity can be resumed and a smooth transition of power. There is suggestion that Trump could resign early to stave off the secondary impeachment, but that remains far from what we have come to expect of the nature of the man.

下周的最大关注点无疑是美国的新总统就职，希望这将是一次和平的权力交接。有人建议特朗普提前辞职，从而避免被二度弹劾，但以我们对他的了解来看，似乎可能性不大。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - A busy start to the trading week with the UK Rightmove House Price data up first before a plethora of Chinese data: Industrial Production, Unemployment, Retail Sales and GDP. Industrial Production from Japan is up next. With the US being on holiday the main event in the afternoon is BoE’s Andrew Bailey speaking a Eurogroup meetings throughout the day.

周一数据较多，最先发布的是英国Rightmove房屋价格数据，之后是中国工业产值、失业数据、零售业销售额以及GDP等众多数据。紧接着是日本发布的工业产值。英格兰银行行长贝利将在下午发表讲话。全天均有欧元集团会议。

Tuesday - ECOFIN meetings run throughout the day. Eurozone data comes with Europe and Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment data, Eurozone Current Account numbers, German CPI and Italy's Trade Balance. In the US session we get Canadian Manufacturing and Wholesale Sales and BoE MPC member Haldane speaks.

欧盟经济与财政事务理事会的会议将持续一整天。欧元区数据包括德国ZEW经济景气数据、欧元区经常账户、德国CPI以及意大利贸易差额。北美时段，我们将得到加拿大的制造业数据和批发销售额，英格兰银行货币政策委员会成员Haldane将发表讲话。

Wednesday - From the UK we get CPI, PPI, RPI and HPI data, with German PPI and Eurozone Core and Non-Core CPI. The US session will be focussed mainly on Joe Biden's inauguration as President, but also brings the Bank of Canada rate decision and late on Japanese Trade Balance.

英国将发布CPI、PPI、RPI和HPI数据。欧洲方面，我们将得到德国PPI以及欧元区核心和非核心CPI。拜登将在这一天正式就职美国总统。加拿大银行将发布利率决议。晚些时候，日本将发布贸易差额。

Thursday - Australian Employment and Unemployment data and a BoJ rate decision kicks the day off. From the UK we get Gfk, Credit Conditions and CBI numbers. The ECB rate decision comes at 12.45 with Lagarde's conference 45 mins later. From the US its weekly Unemployment and Philly Fed as well as Building Permits and Housing Starts.  Later in the afternoon we get Eurozone Consumer Confidence and BoE’s Andrew Bailey  bere New Zealand's CPI numbers.

周四最先得到的数据包括澳大利亚就业和失业数据，以及英国央行利率决议。英国将发布Gfk、信贷条件以及CBI数据。欧洲央行利率决议将在12:45发布，拉加德将在公布决议45分钟后举行新闻发布会。美国方面的数据包括周失业人数以及建造许可和住房数据。下午时段，我们将得到欧元区消费者信心指数、新西兰CPI以及英国央行行长贝利的讲话。

Friday - Retail Sales from Australia and Manufacturing PMI from Japan comes first. In the European session we get UK Retail Sales, PSNB and Manufacturing and Services PMI’s. From Europe we get Services and Manufacturing PMI’s from Germany, France and the Euro bloc. In the US session we get PMI’s from the US as well as Home Sales data as well as Canadian Retail Sales.

最先发布的数据是澳大利亚零售业销售额和日本制造业PMI。欧洲时段，我们将得到英国零售业销售额、公共部门净借款以及制造业和服务业PMI，另外德国、法国和欧元区将发布服务业和制造业PMI数据。北美时段，我们将得到美国PMI数据和房屋销售额数据，以及加拿大的零售业销售额。