For the last few weeks when the time comes to summarise the week’s events and investigate what’s coming up in the week ahead, it’s felt like Groundhog Day with the key outstanding issues at a critical point seeking immediate agreement at a looming deadline. Nevertheless, agreement is prolonged to a new fresh critical deadline, yet markets are gaining traction towards the thought agreement.

在过去的几周里，每当临近周末，想要回顾总结这一周都发生了什么的时候，你或许会一直重复这样的感受——那就是关键问题已到了急需立刻解决的紧要关头，但等来的却是新一轮的“最后期限”。即便如此，市场还是始终持乐观态度。

This is exactly where we find ourselves again this week, with major indices persisting in the uptrend into year end with those risk safe haven currencies, namely the US Dollar slipping as the markets view critical agreement between Europe and the UK on Brexit and across the parties in the US bringing a stimulus deal.  

本周亦是如此，市场对英国和欧盟之间的“脱欧”协议以及美国两党能够商议出一个抗疫纾困计划抱有信心，因此主要股指继续保持上升势头，包括美元在内的避险货币下跌。

Brexit has dominated the newswires this week after no agreement was reached between Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen last weekend. Whilst the sands of time drawdown, and as verbal assurances of a deal being reached shifted towards there being a greater chance of the UK departing the EU on Australian trade terms, we did start to hear that concessions were being made on the level playing field and governance issues from the UK and EU this kept GBP trading firm albeit aided by a weaker USD we saw GBP/USD reach the heady heights of 1.3600 not seen in 2 years.  

“脱欧”成为本周最引人关注的新闻。上周末，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与英国首相约翰逊见面后，双方并没有得出结论。随着最后期限越来越近，双方的口风从能够达成协议逐渐向英国将采取澳大利亚模式与欧盟进行贸易靠拢。然而，随着双方在公平竞争环境问题上拉近了距离，英镑受到提振，再加上美元的疲软，英镑兑美元达到了两年来的最高点1.3600。

Despite the positive sentiment the outstanding issue remains fishing rights in UK waters. This contentious issue may yet derail the possibility of a deal, with crucial talks ongoing into the weekend and parliaments across Europe looking to get dragged back from the holiday period should agreement be sought. At this stage the UK are persisting with their hard-line approach to depart on WTO terms at the end of the year with no negotiations on the topic beyond that date. Naturally hard deadlines have come and passed and with all of them having been set by the UK and ultimately retracted due to ongoing optimism of agreement, this is why the markets perhaps remain unperturbed by such a tight deadline magnified by the looming holidays.  Naturally, the risk remains a collapse of progress and talks as we head into the liquidity vacuum of the holiday season, and this of course raises concerns but for now optimism prevails.

然而，双方目前仍然在一个问题上存在较大分歧——那就是捕鱼权问题，并且这一问题很有可能将成为让“脱欧”协议最终翻车的绊脚石。这个周末，英欧双方将继续对话。必要的时候，那些已经开启圣诞假期模式的欧洲议会议员们将被召回商议。

就目前阶段，英国仍然坚持不惧怕“硬脱欧”的态度。如果在12月31日之前未能与欧盟就“脱欧”协议达成一致，那么英国与欧盟将在世界贸易组织的框架下开展贸易。

此前的协商“最后期限”都是英国设定的，并且英国也屡次因为看到谈判的希望而延长了“最后期限”，因此，即便最终的“最后期限”（12月31日）步步逼近，即便圣诞假期马上到来，市场仍然十分“淡定”。然而随着假期到来，市场的流动性将大幅降低，如果此时谈判“崩坏”将引发较大风险。除了上述担忧外，市场总体上仍然持乐观态度。

In the States the status of the much-needed stimulus plan almost mirrors the negotiation path in Europe, with the Republicans and Democrats seemingly making progress towards a plan verbally, yet micro daily deadlines for agreement still not quite getting there. There remains optimism that a deal will be reached today to halt a government shutdown and most importantly help those in need of this vital cash stimulus, highlighted by the ever-rising weekly unemployment numbers we are seeing. There was positive news early in the week as the Electoral College vote went to now firmly President Elect, Joe Biden. Yet despite this Donald Trump hasn’t shifted his desire to stir the pot on international relations before his departure early next year. US markets remain buoyant into year end with rotation present but not dominating as year end position squaring being absorbed by fresh vaccine optimism into year end, meaning 2021 will likely start at record market highs on many of the major indices.

美国方面，抗疫纾困计划的商议过程仿佛在照抄“脱欧”的剧本。相似地，美国共和党和民主党就抗疫纾困计划方面的讨论进展也只存在于口头上，而每日的新闻推送则迟迟没带来好消息。

目前支撑着美国政府继续运转的临时支出方案将于今天（周五）午夜到期，议员们希望通过暂时延长临时支出法案来为商议抗疫纾困计划争取更多时间，而一旦今天参议院投票时参议员们反对临时拨款，那么美国联邦政府将可能会在周末短暂停摆。目前美国周失业人数不停攀升，很多美国民众正焦急等待着来自抗疫纾困计划的资金援助，因此今日的决策至关重要。

本周，美国选举人团投票结果确认拜登在总统选举中胜出。尽管如此，特朗普仍不服输，且似乎并没有放弃在明年离职前继续搅动国际关系的想法。

美国市场保持涨势，板块轮动存在但并不足以主导市场，新冠疫苗大规模接种的积极消息抵消了年终获利平仓的影响。因此2021年开年，各大股指将很可能再创新高。

The nagging doubt to the overriding optimism and focus on the post Covid promise brought by now deliverable vaccines is the case numbers that are in front of us. With global figures now indicating greater than 75 million cases worldwide the virus continues to accelerate across the western world. The inevitable mixing of households over the holidays at a time of heightened case numbers brings material risks. In the UK this week brought nearly two thirds of households into the highest level of lockdown with seeded hints of more stringent lockdowns post festivities. We have to expect cases to keep rising over the next months and be mindful there may come a confidence tipping point in the markets bringing short term pain back into focus over longer term optimism.

随着各国开始逐步接种疫苗，人们保持着乐观情绪和对后疫情时代的憧憬，然而我们不能忽略的事实是——新冠确诊病例数仍在继续增长。全球累计新冠确诊人数已超过7500万，西方国家的病例增长丝毫没有减速。圣诞假期难以避免的走亲访友也将加速病毒的传播。

英国本周宣布了新的“三级封锁”地区名单，三分之二的英国家庭如今生活在高等级的封锁状态中，并且英国政府很有可能在节后进一步升级封锁措施。在未来的几个月里，新冠病例数将持续增长，因此我们要做好短期内市场下跌的心理准备。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - A very light data day at the start of what will be a light week. Australian Economic and Fiscal Outlook and New Zealand's Credit Card Spending comes early in the session before UK CBI and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.

本周数据较少，周一仅有澳大利亚经济和财政前景报告、新西兰信用卡消费、英国CBI以及欧元区消费者信心指数等数据。

Tuesday - Australian Retail Sales is first up before German Gfk and Import Prices. From the UK we get Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Public Sector Borrowing and Business Investment Data.In the US session we get GDP, Consumer Confidence and Home Sales Data then late on at the turn of the day Japan;s Monetary Policy Meetings minutes.

首先发布的数据是澳大利亚零售业销售额以及德国Gfk消费者信心指数和进口价格，英国方面将发布经常账户、最终GDP、公共部门贷款以及企业投资等数据。美国方面，我们将得到GDP、消费者信心指数、房屋销售额等数据。晚些时候，日本货币政策委员会将发布会议纪要。

Wednesday - Inflation Data from Japan starts the day. With no European data the US session brings GDP from Canada and Durable Goods, PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Weekly Unemployment and UoM Consumer Sentiment and Spending.

最先发布的数据是日本通胀数据。北美时段，加拿大将发布GDP，美国将发布耐用品订单、个人消费支出物价指数、个人收入与支出、周失业人数以及密歇根大学消费者信心和支出等数据。

Thursday - With Bank holidays across Europe and North America the only notable data is from Japan with CPI, Unemployment and Retail Sales as well as a speech from BOJ Governor Kuroda.

周四是欧洲和北美国家的公共假期，唯一值得关注的数据就是日本CPI、失业人数以及零售业销售额，日本央行行长黑田东彦将发表讲话。

Friday - Bank Holidays

圣诞节假期