This week has been, dare I say it, relatively boring in the markets. We look to be closing the week in or around where we exited last week. This comes after a relatively negative open on Monday as Covid-19 cases across Europe and the UK continued to surge, it felt for what transpired to be just a few hours that the markets were going to focus attention back towards potential implications of a significant second wave of infection.  But, whilst through the week we have continued to see cases grow and lockdowns and curfews increase particularly in France, Spain and the UK the markets attention still sits with the US election and Brexit.

原谅我不得不这么说：这周的金融市场真是无聊极了。本周收盘与上周几乎无异。尽管因受到欧洲和英国新冠病例激增的影响，周一市场低开，起初的数小时仿佛市场终于开始重视第二轮疫情来袭的影响了；然而接下来的一周内，尽管法国、西班牙和英国相继出现病例大幅增长以及发布封锁和宵禁措施，市场的焦点却似乎只停留在美国大选和英国“脱欧”进展。

It has been another week of kicking the can both stateside and in the UK. In the US the much-needed stimulus plan remains deadlocked with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 48-hour deadline to find agreement with Republican cohorts passed and ultimately ignored. Despite the “deadline” talks remain ongoing, with both parties seemingly content just to make the noises of effort whilst perhaps content to just let the clock tick down to the election to the detriment of those sorely in need of the actual benefits the stimulus should deliver for. Last night saw the last leadership head to head between Presidential candidates Trump and Biden. The event was more civilised than previous with Biden not getting dragged into the typical Trump performance.

美国两党间讨论和英国欧盟间的“脱欧”谈判仍然处在“踢皮球的游戏”当中。在美国，为了在大选前达成抗疫纾困法案，众议院议长佩洛西在10月18日设定了“最后48小时”的谈判时限，然而美国两党却未能在这一时限内得出结论。尽管目前讨论并未停止，但双方的商讨似乎都只是做做样子，直至拖到大选的那天。这样的做法，却着实伤害了需要抗疫纾困法案来获得帮助的人。

昨晚，拜登和特朗普两位总统候选人结束了他们之间的最后一场电视辩论。在这一场辩论中，两人相较此前更加有风度一些，拜登也没有被特朗普牵着鼻子走。

With limited impact on the polls following the debate and reasonably solid performance from US earnings season supporting, but not enhancing US Stocks all eyes will be on the tech giants who start to report earnings next week.  As we have already seen so far the bar is set high for US companies and underperformance of the key tech players could be the straw that breaks the camel's back as we move towards the election and perhaps start to see market participants start to de-risk into the event. With Biden in the lead focus shifts to the scope of the blue Democrat wave across the house and senate, IF domination is achieved this will likely herald the best outcome for the stock market, the closer the vote and the more responsibility is shared between the parties the more road blocs there will be in future policy agreement as is being currently exemplified with the stimulus plan.

电视辩论并未对民意调查结果产生太大影响，刚刚开始的美国上市公司营收季数据合格，却没有推动股市上行，现在所有人的目光都聚焦在下周科技巨头公司即将发布的营收数据上。

因为投资人已经对科技巨头公司的表现设立了较高的标准，因此一旦数据不佳，就很可能成为大选前“压死骆驼的最后一根稻草”，并将导致市场参与者的去风险行为。

拜登如今占据优势，他的重点转向了确保民主党在美国众议院和参议院的多数席位。一旦获得多数席位，可能对股市来说是最好的结果。两位候选人的票数越接近，两党分摊的责任就越接近。就像在如今关于抗疫纾困方案的讨论中看到的那样，这将导致未来的任何政策都不能得以顺利通过。

In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a rough week domestically as his cabinet's performance in assisting areas of the country most affected by the virus has left a lot to be desired. It begged the question, if he can't negotiate deals domestically how can it be expected with the EU and Brexit. The Pound enjoyed a good week as between Tuesday and Wednesday it transpired that UK and EU negotiators were again focussed on trying to get a deal. The EU tem travels to London to again attempt what has proven impossible to date. For now the currency is solidifying its position above 1.3000, peaking at weekly highs of 1.3175 against the US Dollar.  There remains concerns a resolution can be found with all negotiating parties fighting virus flares, but for now optimism prevails.

英国方面，首相约翰逊这周并不好过。他和他的内阁成员在帮助疫情最严重地区抗疫的处理上并不能让人满意。这不仅让人质疑，连国内的协商都搞不定，还怎么指望他去与欧盟就“脱欧”谈判展开讨论？

英镑本周表现可圈可点，周二和周三时候我们听到消息，英国与欧盟方面的谈判代表认为仍有达成协议的希望。欧盟谈判代表再度来到伦敦，双方继续对话。目前，英镑兑美元稳定在1.3000以上的位置，本周曾冲击1.3175高点。

人们担心，英国和欧盟在抗击疫情之余是否有足够精力达成一个另双方都较为满意的协议，然而就目前来看，希望仍在。

The Week Ahead:

Monday - German IFO is the only significant data of the morning. In the US session we get New Home Sales and Trade Balance from New Zealand late in the day.

周一上午将发布德国IFO商业景气指数；北美时段，我们将得到美国新屋销售额以及新西兰贸易差额数据。

Tuesday - Japanese Core CPI comes first before Housing data from the UK. Spanish Unemployment is next up as well as Eurozone Money Supply and UK CBI Realised Sales. From the US we get Core and Non-Core Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index.

首先发布的是日本核心CPI，之后是英国房屋数据、西班牙失业数据、欧元区货币供应以及英国CBI零售销售数据。美国方面，我们得到核心和非核心耐用品销售数据、消费者信心指数以及里士满制造业指数。

Wednesday - The main data of the morning is Australian CPI Inflation data before German Import Prices. US Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories comes before the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report, Statement and Press Conference.

周三的主要数据包括澳大利亚CPI通胀数据、德国进口价格、美国贸易差额以及批发库存，加拿大央行将发布货币政策报告和声明，并召开新闻发布会。

Thursday - The Bank of Japan delivers the Interest Rate Decision early in the session. In Europe we get German and Spanish CPI Inflation numbers as well as UK Borrowing data. In the US session we get significant data with GDP and Unemployment Claims before Christine Lagarde's ECB rate decision and Press Conference.

早些时候，日本央行将发布利率决议。欧洲方面，我们将得到德国和西班牙CPI通胀数据以及英国借贷数据。美国时段，我们将获得包括GDP和失业救济申请等重要数据，之后是欧洲央行行长拉加德的利率决议和新闻发布会。

Friday - Japanese Unemployment, Core CPI, PPI and Housing Starts come first. From Europe we get French Consumer Spending and GDP. German Retail Sales and GDP are next up before Eurozone CPI and Unemployment Rate numbers and Italian GDP. In the afternoon session we get GDP from Canada and US PCE and Personal Spending and Chicago PMI and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

首先发布的数据包括日本失业数据、核心CPI、PPI以及房屋数据。欧洲方面，我们将得到法国消费者支出和GDP数据、德国的零售销售额和GDP、欧元区CPI和失业率，以及意大利GDP数据。下午时段，我们将得到加拿大GDP数据，以及美国个人消费支出、芝加哥PMI和UoM消费者情绪数据。