In what seemed an all to obvious conclusion to the Trump/Covid 19 panic, the reigning President bounced back from the infection in no time at all. It appears almost as if he did not have it in the first place with the way he has conducted himself this week. Of course, the conspiracy theorist will question the authenticity of the President's infection, speed of recovery and whether the Lazarus style bounce back will aid his campaign or not. But it seems the President has again done himself no favors during this time due to his actions. First came a unplanned and unpermitted trip, leaving the hospital to drive to wave at some hardline street campaigners, which seemed to be a manipulated show of resilience, but what it in fact showed that his thoughts remained with self-gratification, whilst endangering the security services men around him who were being potentially exposed to the virus. This brought outrage on US soil and somewhat out shone what he was trying to achieve.

对于这次的“特朗普新冠危机”，结论显而易见，那就是他已经迅速康复回归，且他这周的表现让人有一种他从未被感染过的错觉。当然了，阴谋论者质疑他是否真的感染了新冠，并对他如此快的恢复速度表示质疑，人们不仅想问，这种“奇迹式的康复速度”是否会对他的竞选有所帮助？

特朗普这次的表现还是一如既往地并没有为自己加分。他先是没有经过允许突然离开医院外出“兜风”，并向他的支持者挥手示意。这场看上去像是被安排好的、体现他坚韧性格的“表演”，实际上却体现出他只以自我为中心，让围绕在他身边的安保人员增加了被病毒感染的风险。

于是，他不仅没有达到原本的目的，并且还激起了美国人民的不满。

Throughout the week he has continued to talk down the severity of the infection whilst highlighting his own metabolic strength, which will of course rightly upset those with family members who have succumbed or are seriously ill with the virus. Early in the week he was back in office underling his intentions of winning the election. With the US enduring the ongoing negotiations on the relief bill for US citizens, which is now sadly being used as a political tool ahead of the election, Trump announced on Tuesday night on Twitter that he was abandoning economic relief talks until after the election in early November. This move brought a sharp panic to the US markets as risk turned to on and Equities took a sharp hit with the S&P 500 falling 100 points to just below 3350. It was an incredibly strange move which was never going to help his populism at street level and was always going to hurt his beloved stock markets, so it was of no surprise that as little as a day later he began backtracking and talking of continued talks between Mnuchin and Pelosi.

这一周以来，特朗普一方面表示感染新冠并没什么大不了，另一方面强调他的新陈代谢多么强大，这引来了在这场疫情中失去家人的人和重症患者的不满。周中，特朗普返回白宫办公室，再次重申他志在赢得这次选举的信心。

关于美国救助法案的讨论仍没有得出结果，并且令人感到失望的是，救济法案已俨然成为总统竞选前的政治工具。

特朗普周二晚在推特上发文称，在11月初大选结果揭晓前，他将不再继续关于经济救助的讨论。这样的言论让金融市场顿时陷入恐慌，避险模式全开。股市受打击最大，标普500跌100点至3350点以下。

特朗普的做法令人费解，这不但不能增加他的民意支持度，并且还力挫了他所钟爱的股票市场。因此不出意料之外，第二天特朗普就又表示，将继续与财政部长姆努钦和众议院议长佩洛西进行谈话。

Whilst previously in the UK and Brazil we have seen leaders succumb to the virus and emerge with increased populism, this has certainly not been the case as Biden continues to stretch his lead. It now appears that the markets are quite content with this and the news an aid package is still possible as they flipped back to risk off and all US indices reversed the Tuesdays plunge on Wednesday, and now sit on recent highs, buoyed by the fact it's looking increasingly likely we see not only a Biden victory, but a victory with an uncontestable clean sweep majority. If true, this will make the feared prolonged and messy departure of Trump. At this stage, it cannot of course be taken as a given that this will be the outcome, but for now the markets seem keen to buy with many calling for fresh highs in the stock markets ahead of the election.

此前，英国和巴西的国家领导人在感染了新冠病毒后，支持率都有所增加，但在美国情况却并非如此。特朗普的竞争对手拜登继续扩大领先优势，市场对此较为满意，加之救助计划仍有一丝希望，因此市场回归风险喜好模式。所有的美国股指均在周三有所反弹，目前位于近日高点位置。

从现在的各项指标来看，拜登不仅可能会赢得大选，并且还将是绝对优势获胜。届时，特朗普也将告别白宫。在目前阶段，我们尚不能过早下结论，但市场似乎已迫不及待地开始买入，许多分析师认为，股市在大选前还能再度冲击新高。

Obviously, the UK/EU talks over the Brexit divorce remain ongoing, with little in the way of substantial news other than hints. Whilst we now know the UK’s deadline for conclusion of the 15th of October will not be respected by the EU’s Chief negotiator Barnier, as he sticks to the original agreed deadline of the end of the month. The snippets we receive from the key players have been broadly positive without significant detail this week, as it's being hinted that mutual concessions are being discussed and the pound has had an uncharacteristically buoyant week.

英国与欧盟之间的“脱欧”谈判仍在继续，但我们所能听到的仅仅是一些言语中释放出的信号，而并没有实质性进展。尽管英国此前给出了10月15日的最后谈判期限，但欧盟首席谈判代表巴尼耶却坚持原定的10月底为最后期限。从双方主要人物的只言片语中我们得知，谈判总体上较为积极，双方都在不同程度上作出了让步。英镑本周表现异常活跃。

One surprise this week is how the markets have broadly ignored the increase in Covid-19 cases across the US, Western Europe and the UK. There has been some significant pick up in country and regional case numbers with major cities like Paris and Madrid locked down. In the UK steps have been taken to halt alcohol sales in Northern England and Scotland. Last weekend saw another governmental blunder as the reported cases significantly jumped on Saturday as a corrective measure due to an error in the use of excel leading to past incorrect data being shared. With winter months drawing in and rising infection there could be a tipping point again where the markets must start considering the implications of rising cases and more broader lock downs. This week The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey seemed to brush off fears of economic impact of a second wave, and whilst we hope he is correct it does seem somewhat flippant.

本周最令人感到意外的是，市场选择性忽略了美国、西欧以及英国的新冠病例激增这一事实。包括巴黎和马德里在内的大都市陷入封锁状态。英国方面，北英格兰和苏格兰地区将停售酒精饮料。

上周末的新闻爆出，因为对电子表格使用不当，英国政府此前发布的数据并不准确。因为英国政府此前的粗心，周六发布的纠正后的病例数据出现大幅增长。

随着冬日临近，病毒传播情况可能将进一步恶化，从而导致更广泛的封锁措施，因此市场可能随时迎来新的转折点。

本周，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利的讲话想要安抚人们对第二轮疫情带来经济冲击的恐惧，尽管我们都希望他最后是对的，但这样的说法似乎有些草率。

The Week Ahead:

Monday – A slow start to the week with it being national holidays in the US and Canada. In the morning we get Japanese Machinery Orders and PPI. In the afternoon we hear from The Bank of England MPC members Haskel and MPC Head Andrew Bailey.

周一是美国和加拿大的公共假期。上午我们将得到日本机械订单和生产者物价指数。下午，英格兰银行货币政策委员会成员Haskel和央行行长贝利将发表讲话。

Tuesday – First data of the day is Chinese Trade Balance before German CPI Inflation. From the UK we get some meaningful data in Unemployment, Average Earnings and Claimant Count data. German Zew comes later in the morning before US CPI inflation data.

周二将发布的数据包括了中国贸易差额、德国消费物价通胀、德国ZEW数据，以及英国方面发布的失业数据、平均收入数据、失业救济金申请数据等。之后发布的是美国消费物价通胀数据。

Wednesday – Japanese and Eurozone Industrial Production in the am. In the US session we get PPI data then a host of Fed speakers in Clarida, Quarles and Caplan. There is also UK MPC member Haldane talking and Lowe from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

日本和欧元区的工业产值将在上午发布。美国时段，我们将得到生产者物价指数，美联储成员Clarida、Quarles和Caplan将发表讲话。英国货币政策委员会成员Haldane和澳大利亚联储主席洛威。

Thursday – Australian Employment and Unemployment numbers start the day before Chinese CPI and PPI year on year inflation. In the European session we get French CPI. The US session brings Philly Fed Manufacturing index, US Weekly Unemployment and Fed Speakers Quarles and Kashkari.

首先发布的是澳大利亚就业和失业数据，之后是中国消费者价格指数和生产者物价指数。欧洲时段，我们将得到法国消费者价格指数。美国时段将发布费城联储制造业指数、美国周失业数据以及美联储成员Quarles和Kashkari的讲话。

Friday – With a quiet Asian session the first data is Eurozone CPI and Trade Balance. IN the US Session we get Retail Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. There are IMF meetings all day on Friday with run through to Saturday.

亚洲时段数据较少，欧洲方面将发布欧元区消费者价格指数以及贸易差额。美国时段，我们将得到零售销售额以及密歇根大学消费者情绪数据。国际货币基金组织将在周五至周六召开会议。