Whilst we have become used to surging stocks since the first quarter fall out seen at the height of the impacts of the pandemic in the western world, the performance of stocks in this last week certainly leaves the professional trading community scratching their heads. With reports of over 5 US states reissuing lock down measures after a significant spike in new cases, and over 55,000 reported on Thursday alone this week in the states there is great cause for concern, which the stock markets do not seem to be acknowledging, with new highs in the cross hairs.
在西方世界受到疫情冲击最严重的峰期，我们度过了低迷的第一季度。尽管自那之后，我们已经对股票的一路飙升习以为常，然而股市在过去几周里如此高涨的程度仍然让专业投资者们摸不着头脑。
尤其当你考虑到，美国有5个州在出现明显的新病例激增后恢复了封锁措施，且美国仅在本周四一天就有5.5万新增病例，诸多负面消息本应引来市场的担忧情绪，然而股市却好似没有看到一样，继续不断创造新高。
Granted, it has not all been bad news in the States and this week’s employment data beat with 4.8m new jobs created, versus the 3m expected. The unemployment rate also fell to 11.1% against expectation of 12.4% and the 13.3% level seen last month. On the face of it, this is good news that the workforce is again being mobilized. But, consideration must be given to the fact that this data is historic, and markets typically react to where we are now, not where we have been, and with lockdowns going in place across the US daily, expectation would be that this data could well start to reverse next month. So why isn’t this being reflected in the markets?
诚然，美国方面不是只有坏消息。通过本周的就业数据我们得知，本周新增了480万个工作岗位，高于预期的300万个。失业率也从上个月的13.3%下降到11.1%，好于预期的12.4%。
表面上来看，劳动力能够复工是件好事。然而我们别忘了，这个数据代表着过去，而市场在意的是当下的形势。随着美国每日都在宣布更多地区进入封锁状态，就业情况可能在下个月出现反转。那么，为何市场却对此视若无睹呢？
As we know President Trump is hell bent on higher stock markets as the driving force in his Presidential campaign, with this added to the rising numbers of individuals migrating from bank savings accounts to stocks in search of value during a low interest rate environment, we perhaps have 2 reasonable explanations. Funds and investment managers are also underweight on investment and reluctant to get involved at these levels’ liquidity is low, heightening volatility.
我们都清楚，特朗普为了赢得接下来的总统竞选，坚决地捍卫着股市持续走高。另一个原因是，越来越多的储户将存款取出并投入股市，在如今的低利率环境下，投资者转而向股市寻找更高的回报。上述两点可能是解释股市此刻价格行为的原因。同时，基金和投资经理的策略则转为减持，不愿在如今低流动性、波动加剧的情况下出手。
For now it would be foolish to fight the market trend and call a top to it, but if the case numbers keep rising in US States that had previously been felt safe, not only the markets could start to fall, but the probability of a second term for Trump will likely take a significant and perhaps terminal dent. For now, the worrying question remains, just how bad it will have to get before the markets start to take notice. Naturally, hope remains that this isn’t the case, but for now if a turn comes, we could see a reasonable correction.
就目前而言，最明智的做法是顺应市场趋势，然而一旦美国的病例数持续激增，市场可能会应声大跌，并且如果特朗普连任，那么他将很有可能对股市造成不可挽回的严重创伤。目前问题已经存在，我们想知道究竟多久之后市场才会意识到这个问题。当然了，我们仍可以寄希望于这样的情况不会发生，但是就目前来说，一旦趋势发生改变，我们可能会看到股市适度回调。
In the FX space it's been a relatively quiet week. The Dollar is caught between becoming a safe haven currency and experiencing depreciation amid rising stocks and reacting positively to stocks which has led to safe haven currency sales. This merry go round has brought the markets to a relative stalemate, with the Dollar fall seen in the earlier part of the week, particularly against the Euro and Pound starting to reverse into the close of the week. Gold continues to be bought as we approach the 1800 area in XAU/USD, with the pair currently gaining more positively from good news lowering the Dollar value, whilst also gaining from the gold strength of low interest rate environments and those smart investors who see the clear inflation problems coming over the next 24 months due to the global government pandemic stimulus.
外汇市场方面，这周比较平静。美元时而作为避险货币，受到投资者的追捧，争相买入，时而因股市上扬，投资者避险情绪冷却，而遭到抛售。这种“旋转木马式”的循环让市场陷入僵持，美元兑欧元和英镑在本周上半段下跌，并在临近周末时反转。
黄金仍然被投资者买入，黄金美元价格推高至1800水平。黄金美元货币对随着积极消息上涨，美元贬值。黄金升值也有低利率环境的原因，聪明的投资者意识到，未来2年里，全球各国政府为应对疫情而使用的刺激手段终将会导致通货膨胀问题。
In the UK Brexit looms over us, with little in the way of progress this week now we are in “meaningful” talks. A resurgence in northern England is also a worry, and as the UK comes out of full lockdown on 4th July, there has been the need to keep one reasonably large City, Leicester in lockdown due to a spike in cases. With the UK way behind the curve, the next month will be very telling from both a business and relaxed measures new cases perspective, with the governments past and present actions carefully analysed.
英国方面，“脱欧”像一团乌云笼罩在头上，本周进展甚微，如今双方正在“有意义地”对谈。英格兰北部地区出现的疫情反复也令人忧心。随着英国即将在7月4日彻底解除封锁状态，规模较大的城市之一莱斯特却因病例数激增的问题而被封锁。
由于英国政府行动滞后，下个月显然是时候进行关于拯救企业和放松封锁措施方面的讨论了，英国政府在过往和现在的表现将被拿出来仔细分析。
The Week Ahead:
未来一周前瞻：
Monday: Quiet day as the states come back after the extended weekend. US ISM Non-manufacturing data is the highlight as well as the Canadian economic outlook release.
美国结束假期，数据较少，值得关注的是美国ISM非制造业数据和加拿大经济前景预期。
Tuesday: First up is the interest rate decision from the reserve Bank of Australia. In the European session the pick of the data is German Industrial Production. In the US session Quarles of the Fed Reserve is due to speak.
首先将得到澳大利亚储备银行的利率决议。在欧洲时段，我们将得到德国工业产值。美国时段，美联储成员夸尔斯将发表讲话。
Wednesday: Current account and bank lending data from Japan in the Asian session before economic forecasts from the EU.
亚洲时段，日本将发布经常账户和银行借贷数据。之后发布的数据是来自欧盟的经济预测。
Thursday: Business confidence data from New Zealand comes first early in the session. In the European session we get German trade balance data. Weekly jobless claims from the States is the highlight of the afternoon as well as Wholesale Inventories.
这天我们将现货的来自新西兰的商业信心数据。欧洲方面，将得到德国贸易差额。下午最重要的数据是美国失业人数和批发库存。
Friday: French and Italian Industrial Production data in the European session. In the US session we get Core and Non-core US PPI and Canadian Unemployment
欧洲时段将发布法国和意大利工业产值。在美国时段，我们将得到核心和非核心生产者物价指数以及加拿大失业情况的数据。
