As the markets return after the long Easter break, they seem to have a more assured tone to them. The main news over the weekend was that at the scheduled OPEC meeting, as expected a deal was struck to limit the supply of Oil by 10% to try and stem the decline in the price of the commodity. This agreement hopefully shows the willingness of Russia, the Saudis and the US to work together to maintain a competitive price amid the global downturn in demand for Oil.

复活节假期过后，市场似乎呈现出更为乐观的基调。周末的主要新闻是欧佩克会议，正如预期的那样，会议达成协议，减少10%石油供应量，以阻止油价进一步下跌。该协议表明了，俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和美国愿意在全球石油需求下降的情况下，共同协作，维持石油有竞争力的价格。

Whilst we start the week with the news that Europe look to be extending the lockdown into May and with it being likely the UK will do the same later this week, there is a glint of optimism as new cases and deaths are arguably flattening towards turning in some parts of Central Europe namely Spain Italy and Germany, with the Czech Republic, Austria and Denmark discussing kickstarting their economies, albeit, with social distancing and masked protection. 

本周伊始，我们得到消息称欧洲将延长封锁计划至5月，英国也很可能会在本周晚些时候宣布同样的政策。但随着包括西班牙、意大利和德国在内的部分欧洲国家的新病例和死亡人数的曲线趋于平缓，人们开始持有一丝乐观态度。捷克共和国、奥地利和丹麦也开始讨论，如何在保持社会隔离和口罩防护的前提下，重启经济的计划。

In the UK the rate of deaths has broken through 11,000 with data suggesting nearly half of thoses coming from old age care homes. However, the turning point has still to be reached with the UK remaining in the eye of the virus storm.

在英国，死亡例数已突破11000人，数据表明，其中将近一半的人来自养老院。但是，英国目前仍处于病毒风暴高峰，还未到达转折点。

In the US as President Trump remains more concerned by public perception of his performance than the facts, there was positive news as New York state, one of the worst affected finally showed a contraction in numbers with the President seems intent on getting the workforce mobilized to thwart the effects of the mass unemployment, underlined by a further 6 million freshly unemployed reported last week, bringing the total to above 16m in the last 3 weeks. The Federal Reserve stepped in again with another huge package of $2.3 trillion aid in the form of loans to businesses.

美国方面，总统特朗普更关心的仍是公众对他的看法，而不是事实。积极的消息是，作为受影响最严重的地区之一，纽约州的失业人数终于开始有减少迹象。特朗普的意图似乎是通过不限制劳动力的出行，来减轻大规模失业的负面影响。上周，美国报告了600万新失业人数，这使得最近三周的失业人数总数超过了1600万。美联储再次介入，通过向企业贷款的形式提供了2.3万亿美元的巨额援助。

The scale of the global Central Bank aid packages have forced the markets to sit up and take note, and whilst many participants were thinking the rally from the lows were an opportunity to sell again, we are now close to the tipping point where a continuation of the bounce will flush out the short sellers and have those who awaited what was seeming like an inevitable dip being forced to buy in at higher levels. With last week’s pullback looking intact as we kick off the new trading week it could be interesting, however the trading sessions won’t be without volatility, as it seems a trading range of around 2% is becoming the new norm. For now, the Central bankers’ assurances have set the doom mongering markets at ease, however the inflation problem caused by such stimulus, will of course remain a problem for another day.

全球中央银行大规模的援助计划让市场不得不开始正视，尽管许多投资人认为，低点后的反弹是再次抛售的机会，但我们现在已经快到了持续下跌的转折点。持续反弹将清场做空者，并让等待下跌的空头被迫以更高的价格买入。

随着新的交易周的开始，上周的回调仍保持得很好。然而，本周并非不会有波动，因为如今，2％左右的波动范围似乎已成为新的常态。就目前而言，央行让曾被认为注定陷入厄运的市场稍微安心了一些，但是，这种刺激所带来的通货膨胀问题也必然是个隐患。

Whilst we remain hopeful that the reduction in virus cases persists, the timely management of the reintroduction of global workforces will be crucial. Whilst the temptation to stimulate the economy quickly will be hard to fight, a worry will always be a second wave of cases as a result of premature action.  Trump seems intent on lifting bans as soon as possible whether at the advice of his top medical representation or not, as he clamors to lift the stock markets to emulate the progress the data is suggesting China has seen since coming out of lockdown.

尽管我们仍寄希望于病毒病例持续减少，但是及时解决全球劳动力再次就业的问题将也至关重要。虽然各国都很想迅速刺激经济，但令人担忧的是，过早采取行动可能会带来第二波感染。特朗普似乎完全不在乎他的首席医疗代表的建议，有意尽快取消禁令，大声疾呼提振股市。

This week’s key focuses will be on Chinese GDP and Retail Sales on Friday. Again, US weekly jobless will be in focus on Thursday. This week also sees the start of earnings season with the banks leading the way.  With so much of Q1 being blighted by the impacts of the virus not a great deal will be expected of the reporting companies, with more attention focused on the forward guidance given for the rest of the year.

本周的重点数据是周五的中国GDP和零售额。周四的焦点是美国每周失业人数的发布。本周还是营收季的开始，银行将最早发布数据。由于第一季度的大部分时间都受到病毒影响，外界对公司的预期并不多，更多的注意力将集中在今年后半段的业务前瞻指引上。

The Week Ahead

 本周展望

Monday 星期一

·   Bonds Data - US 债券数据-美国

Tuesday 星期二

·       Retail Sales – US 零售销售额-美国

·   Fed Bullard and Evans to speak – US 美联储Bullard和Evans发言–美国

Wednesday 星期三

·       Industrial Production – US 工业生产量–美国

·       Manufacturing Production – US 制造业生产量–美国

·       Capacity Utilization – US 产能利用率–美国

Thursday 星期四

·       Unemployment Rate – Aus 失业率-澳大利亚

·       Credit Conditions Survey – UK 信用状况调查-英国

·       Jobless Data – US 失业数据–美国

·       Housing Starts – US 新屋开工数–美国

Friday 星期五

·   GDP – China 国内生产总值 –中国

·   Inflation Rate – Eurozone 通货膨胀率–欧元区