首页 / 商业理财 / 股市追踪:非农数据不及预期,内忧外患下美股达到历史巅峰


The equity market seemed unstoppable despite the very slight price correction that took place during the Christmas period. 2020 has definitely not started in the best way given what is happening in Australia (almost half a billion of living creatures died due to the bushfire) and the quickly escalated conflict between the US and Iran, started from the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani assassination through US drones. A Ukraine Airlines airplane has also crashed following its take-off from Tehran airport (some believe it was destroyed by an Iranian missile, some speak of a coincidence).


Back to our market analysis, equities have experienced a strong rebound that led the S&P 500 to reach the historical highest level of 3288 points last Wednesday. The US stocks index has now the highest ever valuation on an EV/EBIT basis and the highest since the Dotcom bubble PE multiple, meaning that has never be as expensive as now (see below our “Chart of the week”).

回到我们的市场分析,股票出现了强劲的反弹,标普500指数在上周三达到3288点的历史最高水平。从企业估值倍数(EV / EBIT)的角度来看,美国股票指数现在位于有史以来最高估值,也有着自互联网泡沫之后最高市盈率,这意味着,股票从未像现在这样昂贵(请参阅下面的本周图表)。

On a positive note, Donald Trump confirmed the Phase One trade deal will likely be signed in a matter of few days, maybe even next week (although no confirmation arrived from China). General sentiment seems to recover after one of the least volatile years I can remember.


Investment Grade bonds and Gold have also rallied due to rising uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. On Friday the infamous market moving Non-Farm Payrolls suggested a weaker than expected job market in the US with “only” 145K jobs added in December and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. Average Hourly Earnings also decelerated to 2.9% compared to the last release of 3.1%. A focal point was the manufacturing payrolls that again confirmed the US currently does not have a strong manufacturing sector as the payrolls declined by 12K (vs +58K in Nov).


We believe the Volatility Index (VIX) is close to the historical minimum point, Gold and the 10Y US Treasuries currently yielding 1.84% have room to grow and definitely offer potential upside although a lot will depend on the Ukrainian plane crash investigation and any further trade negotiation development in the coming week.


Next week our macro spotlight will be on?


Monday: 星期一

Balance of trade – UK 贸易差额-英国

GDP – UK 国内生产总值(GDP – UK

Consumer Inflation Expectations - US 消费者通胀预期-美国

Tuesday: 星期二

Balance of trade – China 贸易差额中国

Inflation rate – US 通货膨胀率美国

Redbook – US 红皮书美国

Wednesday: 星期三:

GDP – Germany GDP –德国

Inflation - UK 通货膨胀率-英国

Thursday: 星期四:

Inflation – Germany 通货膨胀德国

Retail Sales – US 零售业销量美国

Friday: 星期五:

GDP – China GDP –中国

Retail Sales – UK 零售业销量-英国

Inflation - Eurozone 通货膨胀-欧元区

Chart of the week 本周图表

Fact of the week 本周事件

President Donald Trump said the Phase One trade deal might be signed as soon as next 15th of January or “Shortly Thereafter”.


Quote of the week 本周语录

"2019 was the worst year on record and the first year to show an overall decline in retail sales."——Helen Dickinson, BRC, CEO UK

“ 2019年是有记录以来最糟糕的一年,也是首次零售业销量全面下降的一年。”——英国零售商协会首席执行官海伦·狄金森 

Stefano Sciacca


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