首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:梅姨被逼明确下台时间,英镑承压连续十天下跌


In what has become customary for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, it has been another tough week. However, this week saw the inevitability of her departure come significantly closer.  The British Pound has recorded 10 straight down days as it fell to 1.2720.  The Conservative party leader had been engaged in negotiations with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as she tried to reach cross party agreement to reach the required parliamentary majority on her EU withdrawal agreement. Collusion between both parties remained unpopular with MP’s from both sides, in particular the Conservative party. As such, Conservative MP’s forced Mrs May to outline the timetable of her departure following the final vote on her agreement. On Friday the markets tumbled further as Jeremy Corbyn released a statement that his negotiations with May had gone as far as they can and negotiating with a Government that was facing an imminent leadership reshuffle was futile, especially considering the damage it was doing Labour in the polls. Corbyn reverted to calling for confirmatory public referendum on Brexit.


英镑已经连续贬值了十天,跌至1.2720。保守党领导人一直在与工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)进行谈判,因为特蕾莎·梅试图达成跨党派协议,以达成欧盟撤销协议所要求的议会多数席位。然而,此次合作倡议并没有受到双方议员的欢迎,特别是保守党。因此,保守党议员催促特蕾莎·梅在她的“脱欧”协议最终投票后,明确她的离职时间表。



The Prime Minister will now likely hold a final vote on the withdrawal agreement on the week of the 3rd June after the European elections. She will now be expected to also release a schedule of her departure afterwards. Despite some assurances from members of her party this week it remains unlikely that amendments made are significant enough to sway parliamentary support. Therefore, it is likely we see a new Prime Minister in the summer. Naturally, we saw a number of MP’s announce their intent to run for leadership with Boris Johnson, Dominic Rabb, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd and Esher McVey to name a few.  It is to be expected that the party will be looking for a pro Brexit leader who would look to avoid a no-deal Brexit, whilst it could be seen as a positive that a fresh approach could invigorate the negotiations with the EU, but the key question remains. How!

All of the available successors have played a significant part of the negotiations to date, Dominic Rabb for one was The PM’s Brexit negotiator, he for one knows the rigidity of the EU as they stand resolute on further negotiations. As the potential candidates start to publicly campaign it will be very interesting to see how they feel the can significantly impact the negotiations and ultimate departure process. Expectation remains that further disruption, will weigh on the UK and the Pound as confidence in the party remains at all time lows.  In the short term, it looks likely that the coming weeks bring a further series of indicative votes within parliament as May looks to gauge what could gain support ahead of the meaningful vote in early June.




迄今为止,所有继任者都在谈判中发挥了重要作用,多米尼克·拉布( Dominic Rabb )就是其中之一,他是英国首相的“脱欧”谈判代表,他知道欧盟的强硬,因为他们在进一步谈判中立场坚定。随着潜在的候选人开始公开竞选,看看他们对谈判和最终退出进程的影响将是非常有趣的。人们仍然预期,进一步的分裂将给英国和英镑带来压力,因为人们对工党的信心仍处于历史低点。从短期来看,未来几周英国议会可能会进行更多的指导性投票,因为首相梅可能会在6月初有意义的投票之前衡量哪些措施可能获得支持。


The market driver of the week was the further escalation of the trade negotiations between the US and China as Trump issued further tariffs in spite of what seemed to be positive progress over the final months. Perhaps banking on the fact he believes that the US economy is in a stronger position and can deal with an elongated period of negotiation more comfortably. Nevertheless, the markets traded heavy as a flight to comfortable assets ensued and stocks plunged. Naturally, the Yuan value fell significantly taking the USD/CNY to concerning levels for the PBOC.

这周市场的主要驱动是中美两国贸易谈判事态的升级,特朗普提高了对中国的进口关税。尽管最近几个月的谈判有积极的进展。 可能他觉得美国强劲的经济可以比(中国)更好地应付漫长的贸易谈判。 但是,股票市场还是承受压力,避险资产受到追捧。 自然,人民币对美元的贬值逼近重要点位让中国人民银行有所担忧。


As the more fraught trade negotiations progress with tik for tak retaliatory tariffs issued and threatened a cloud will remain over the market. In a week that saw the US/Canada/Mexico trade impasse lifted their remains great disappointment that the US/Sino agreement has hit issues. Trade agreement aside, the fall of the Yuan raises a secondary concern, in that the PBOC will be looking to protect the 7.0000 level in USD/CNY. Trump and the US have been historically critical in currency intervention to protect value levels, there is, of course, a large element of irony in that although not currency intervention, Trump could be guilty of verbal influencing markets in his almost daily tweets.




One thing that remains certain is with the latest twist in the trade negotiations, from a monetary policy perspective this could likely give greater cause for concern, in particular from the US Federal Reserves Jerome Powell, who we hear from later this week. As you will see below there is a host of Fed Committee speakers throughout this week and the sentiment expected is likely to be cautionary,l even despite the strong economic data seen from the US last week. 



Over the weekend we saw two significant political developments. In Austria, a further blow to the Eurozone was formed as a snap election was called after Chancellor Sebastian Kurz leadership was compromised by a Junior partner being caught on video offering government contracts for political campaign funding. In Australia, there was a surprising outcome in their general election as Prime Minister Scott Morrison came from behind to gain victory in the nation's elections. The Australian Dollar enjoyed a rally as Morrison pledged to take the necessary steps to get the  Australian economy back on the right path.



The Week Ahead:



Monday -  First up for the week is the UK’s Rightmove Housing data before Japanese Preliminary GDP. In the European session, we receive German PPI and Bundesbank Monthly report. With Canada on holiday, it is a relatively quiet afternoon aside from UK MPC speaker Broadbent and US Fed member Clarida speaking.



Tuesday - First up is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This is shortly followed by the minutes of Australia's Monetary policy meeting, which with them having elected to hold rates at 1.5% against market consensus opinion could prove interesting. In the UK we have the UK Inflation report hearing before CBI Industrial orders at 11 am. Again, very little data of note and more Fed speakers as Evens and Rosengren speak late afternoon UK time.  In early NZ hours, we see their Retail Sales Data.

周二 :我们首先注意到的是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的演讲。澳大利亚货币政策委员会随后公布会议记录,之前会议的投票结果是保持1.5%的利率不变,这个和市场预期不同并相当有趣。在英国,我们在上午11点英国工业联盟的订单数据公布之前将看到英国通胀报告。在英国时间的下午,埃文斯和罗森格伦发言时,几乎没有笔记与数据的公布。在新西兰,官方将公布其零售销售数据。


Wednesday - We start with Japanese Machinery Orders and Trade Balance. Then the focus shifts to Australia, with MI Leading Index, Construction and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Lowe delivering a public address. In the UK its a big day with headline inflation data including RPI, CPI and Core Cpi as well as Public Sector Net Borrowing data. In the US session, we see the release of Canadian Retail Sales and US Fed member Williams speaking. At 7 pm UK time we get the minutes of the April Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting where particular interest will be paid to any hints on the pace and direction of US interest rates.



Thursday - In what will be a big day for the Eurozone the day starts with Purchasing Managers Index data from the broader Eurozone, France and Germany. At the same time, we receive the German Manufacturing data as the markets look to see if Germany can shrug of the downturn in data. Shortly afterwards Germany is under the spotlight again with the IFO Business Climate data. In the afternoon we see US Unemployment claims and Services and Manufacturing PMI’s. In the evening we get a  glimpse of Trade Balance data from New Zealand.



Friday - In a day that will likely be dominated by the run into the European Elections, from the UK we get Retail Sales and CBI data. In the US session, we get Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods data.

周五 :欧洲议会选举进入如火如荼的阶段。在英国方面,我们会获得零售销售和英国工业联盟数据。在美国的相关会议中,我们会收到耐用品和核心耐用品数据。

Duncan Donald


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