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双语:梦醒时分?欧洲第二轮新冠疫情加重,金融市场遭冲击


This week brought what is starting to look like a reality check to markets, which have been too long ignoring the virus and jumping on the stock market march higher bandwagon. The last few months we have seen US election talk and Brexit play the dominant roles of direction, but rightfully this week, a week that has brought significant rises of cases and hospitalisations across Europe and the UK, the focus has been brought back to the short, medium and long term effects this will bear on communities and economies.

如果说在过去的一段时间里,金融市场似乎对新冠病毒忽视了太久,并义无反顾跳上了股市高涨的花车,那么本周就终于迎来了梦醒时分。

过去几个月来,主导市场方向的变量都来自于美国大选和英国“脱欧”,而在这周,随着新冠病例迅猛激增,英国和欧洲地区的住院治疗人数增加,金融市场开始认真考虑疫情在短期、中期和长期阶段对人们和经济的影响。

Across Europe rising case numbers have led to lockdowns and curfews being enforced across France, Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Holland as they seek to curtail the spread of the virus. With the ECB signalling they wish to see the effects of the second wave before committing to a stimulus plan we have seen the Euro fall from 1.1850 to just below 1.1700 on the week with Eurozone stocks falling more than international peers, with the DAX falling from 13,200 to 12,600. The success of the “circuit breaker” style lock downs that have been effectively implemented in China and New Zealand and borne enormous success in eradicating the spread of the virus are being seriously considered. Whilst this approach brings immediate hardship to employment and business, the long-term results of such action has seen health and economic prosperity return to China and brought New Zealand three weeks of zero cases across the country.

在欧洲,包括法国、德国、捷克和荷兰在内的国家纷纷推出封锁和宵禁的防疫措施,旨在减缓病毒的传播速度。

欧洲央行释放出信号,将先观察第二轮疫情的影响,然后再仔细考虑如何制定经济刺激计划。欧元应声下跌,本周从1.1850水平跌破1.1700水平。欧元区股票市场较其他地区相比有更明显下跌,达克斯指数从13200跌至12600。

中国和新西兰已经试验了“熔断式”封锁方法的可行性,尽管在短时间内对经济和就业来说是重击,但长期来看十分有效。新西兰全国境内已连续三周未发现新病例。

Europe has also been unaided by the implications of Brexit; this week seems to be ending much the same as the last few months despite the clock ticking down on the negotiations. Indeed, this week saw UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s self-imposed deadline for completion of negotiations come and go on the 15th.  In what looks rather weak gamesmanship this deadline was set as a “we need the deal done by the date or we walk away”, the EU’s team naturally saw through this buff and made it clear they were only working towards the official deadline at the month's end. The Pound had an interesting week and strangely had its largest up move, when Johnson flopped on his hard deadline, meaning all was not then lost and hope prevailed that a deal could be reached. However, those gains were all but wiped out as the Pound gave up the 1.3000 handle and retreated sub 1.2900. Significant rises in Covid-19 cases across Northern England also weighed on the Pound and the PM brought what looks likely to be a stop-gap 3 tier system for local lockdowns, with London entering tier 2 on Thursday with the 3rd and most extreme tier meaning full lockdown which the UK government seem to wish to avoid at all costs. However it would not now be a surprise to see a 2 week full lock down imposed in the coming weeks.

并不顺利的“脱欧”谈判让欧洲雪上加霜。尽管最后期限近在眼前,但本周一如既往地毫无进展。本周四(10月15日)是英国首相约翰逊之前自己定下的谈判截止日,并曾放下“在这一天要么达成协议,要么一拍两散”的“狠话”。然而,欧盟方当然看透了他的计策,明确表示将一直努力,直至10月31日的官方最后期限。

英镑本周表现令人感到意外,当约翰逊推翻了自己曾设下的最后期限时,英镑出现最大升幅,这也意味着我们仍有希望看到协议的达成。然而,英镑很快就失守1.3000大关,回撤至低于1.2900水平。

英格兰北部地区新冠疫情加重,更加让英镑承压。首相约翰逊宣布将推行三级抗疫系统,伦敦将从周六起进入二级防疫状态,如果疫情再度升级,政府将实施最严厉的三级防疫措施,当然英国政府仍在尽力避免全面封锁。就目前情况来看,在未来几周内迎来为期2周全面封锁也不是完全不可能。

Brexit negotiations remain ongoing, but with overnight signals from French Premier Macron that he simply will not give up on his fisherman, and the UK unwilling to concede their waters, this remains the sticking point of the negotiations, with middle ground seemingly impossible to find. For now, we expect the pound to continue heavy into month end or until significant concessions are made. The process will of course be unaided by the domestic issues of the virus, with EU Commissioner Von Der Leyen going into isolation overnight after a member of her team tested positive for the virus.

“脱欧”谈判将会继续,在英国海域的捕鱼权问题上,法国总统马克龙显然不会轻易放弃为自己的渔民争取权益,而英国也并不愿意退让,这一问题将成为“脱欧”谈判过程中最棘手、最难折中的部分。我们预期英镑将在现在至月底前这一阶段承压,除非任何一方作出重大妥协。

另外,新冠疫情蔓延也将增加谈判的难度。在一名团队工作人员确诊新冠后,欧盟委员会主席冯·德莱恩也开始了她的自我隔离期。

In the US, with Trump back and active campaign wise he appears weaker with campaign funds said to be running low in comparison to Biden, and him pulling spend in states where he feels the game is already lost. Indeed, the markets are pricing in a Biden victory, with only the magnitude of that victory seemingly in question with a clean sweep of the Senate and House being the more appealing to the markets. However, whilst our expectancy is that Biden wins, it cannot be forgotten that at this stage of the last election, Hilary Clinton held an 81% lead in the polls, so the race is most certainly not run.  It was again a back and forth war of words on the US Covid aid package, as necessary funding became a political tool to the detriment of the people, and whilst it looks unlikely agreement can be reached ahead of the election, it remains possible Trump could commit to spending to increase populism. US stocks lost momentum this week as global health and earnings season took hold. The earnings seen to date are certainly not bad or beyond the realms of expectation but as yet over delivery has been stifled and naturally, the commercial banking sector struggled due to loan defaults.

美国方面,特朗普回归总统竞选,但却似乎暴露出其竞选资金短缺的问题,不再在一些注定已无赢面的州投入竞选资金。的确,市场价格中已经考虑了拜登获胜的情况,市场如今关注的是拜登将以多么大的优势当选,这也将意味着未来美国参议院和众议院的新格局。

尽管众人皆预期拜登会获得胜利,然而别忘了上次大选发生的事,希拉里·克林顿在民意调查中获得81%支持率的情况下仍然败选了。双方仍在美国新冠援助计划的问题上继续拉开口水战,如今援助计划已经成为博弈的政治工具,尽管在选前不可能得出结论,然后特朗普完全有可能通过承诺更高金额的援助资金而重获民心。

本周美国股市不再势头强劲,全球健康问题和营收季数据成为关注重点。目前我们看到的营收数据虽然不差,但也并未超出预期,商业银行领域由于贷款拖欠而陷入泥潭。

The week ahead is relatively light on data, with a number of Central Bank speakers on Monday from the UK and US. Friday brings a raft of PMI data from the Eurozone, Australia, Japan, United States, and the UK. But as ever global infection rates must be monitored as well as US election, stimulus agreement talk and of course Brexit progress, or lack of as we are becoming sorely used to.

下周发布的数据较少,来自英国央行和美联储的多位成员将在周一发表讲话。周五发布的数据较多,来自欧元区、澳大利亚、日本、美国以及英国。下周我们将继续关注新冠疫情的发展、美国大选、经济刺激计划以及“脱欧”进展。

The Week Ahead:

 

Monday - With IMF meetings all day on Sunday the first data we get of the new week is Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Unemployment rate. With a relatively quiet day in Europe there are a number of Central Bank Speakers in the US session with the highlights being Lagarde of the ECB and Jerome Powell of the Fed Reserve, as well as some UK MPC speakers.

世界货币基金组织在前一天举行会议。周一我们首先将获得的数据包括中国的GDP、工业产值以及失业数据。各国央行行长和重要成员将发表讲话,包括欧洲央行行长拉加德、美联储主席鲍威尔以及英国央行货币政策委员会成员。

 

Tuesday - The day starts with the minutes of the Australian interest rate setting meeting. The data of the day is relatively low impact numbers with Swiss Trade Balance, German PPI, Eurozone Current Account and US Building Permits and Housing Starts.

首先发布的是澳大利亚利率决议会议纪要,其余数据包括瑞士贸易差额、德国PPI、欧元区经常账户以及美国建筑许可和新屋开工率。

 

Wednesday - The morning sees UK CPI, PPI and RPI Inflation data and lately the MPC’s Ramsden speaking. In the US session we get Canadian CPI and Core and Non-Core Retail Sales.

上午时段,我们将得到英国消费者物价指数、生产者物价指数和零售业物价指数等通胀数据。之后是英国货币政策委员会成员Ramsden的讲话。美国时段,我们将得到加拿大消费者物价指数以及核心和非核心零售销售额数据。

 

Thursday - In the morning we hear from UK MPC Chief Bailey. In the afternoon we get US Weekly Unemployment, CB Leading Index< Existing Home Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.

上午,英国货币政策委员会主席贝利发表讲话。下午数据包括美国周失业数据、CB领先指数、成屋销售以及欧元区消费者信心指数。

 

Friday - A day of PMI data across the globe starting with Australian before French, German, Eurozone, UK and finally US in the afternoon.

各国这天均发布采购经理人指数,包括澳大利亚、法国、德国、欧元区、英国以及美国。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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