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双语:股市陷入停滞,投资者担忧第二轮疫情卷土重来


Whilst we have become accustomed to high volatility of late, this week was far more somber as the markets switched from macro data watching to again monitoring the daily virus case numbers.  The recent resurgence has in both the US and China and has been met with the most opposite of responses. China has acted swiftly closing markets and schools in Beijing as well as air travel in the region to limit contagion, whilst the US remain in the stance that they will not lock down again, what could turn out to be an expensive gamble as cases grow in six states including Alabama and California.

尽管我们近日已经习惯了市场的强烈波动,但这周仍然令人忧心忡忡,因为市场的关注点再一次从宏观数据变回了每日新冠病例增加的数据上。

近日,美国和中国均出现疫情复燃的情况,但应对措施却截然相反。中国方面立即关闭了北京的集市和学校,大面积取消出入的航班和列车,从而限制病毒传播。美国方面则坚持称不会重新实施封锁措施,在包括阿拉巴马州和加利佛尼亚州在内的6个州都有显著病例增加的情况下,这可能是带有赌博性质的一步险棋。

Whilst the emergence of case increases had the markets sliding at the Monday open, since that time things have broadly stalled, not giving up the gains seen with all major indices holding in touching distance of the highs brought by the recent surge of buying seen in May and June. Much is being made of the source of the recent buying with it being linked heavily to retail investors, or in simple terms the man on the street. As a career long trader it was perhaps arrogant to assume that retail investors wouldn’t have the collective volume to dictate the pace and direction of the markets, but with volume lower and institutional players sitting underinvested it would appear they have been the recent driving force. For example, we only have to look at the plight of Hertz whereby the company filed for bankruptcy one day plunging price only to be bought up despite self-declaring worthlessness.

病例激增的紧急情况让市场在周一早盘时段略有下滑,之后便变动较小,所有重要指数守住高位,保持住了5、6月份以来的买入潮所带来的利润。这股买入潮主要是来自于散户投资者,甚至直白点说是“韭菜们”。

作为一名所有职业生涯都投注在市场上的交易员,可能会傲慢地认为,散户投资者那微小的交易量不足以改变市场的步伐和走向,但随着市场交易量减少和机构投资者减持,散户投资者如今的确是驱动市场的主要力量。举例来说,租车公司赫兹陷入了破产困境,但它的股价仅在“跳楼”后的第二天就被纷纷买入推高,尽管破产可能让其股票变得一文不值。

Whilst we perhaps enjoy a moment of almost normality in daily price action rarely seen this year, we have to look forward to predicting the next move. While the stock markets are absorbing the recent surge of risks brought by the diminishing Trump populism, even within his own party, fears of a full-scale second wave of the virus and a breakdown of US/Sino trade relations, the Foreign Exchange market has shifted towards safe haven buying, with the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and inadvertently the US Dollar all being bought up with the UK’s Pound and Euro somewhat on the backfoot.  For stocks, the obvious opinion would be for downside in the short term, but this week’s markets close then the weekend Covid case numbers data and Mondays open will be crucial, if we weather a potential storm then we could go on to test the highs. A resurgence of cases will see panic ensue in the retail sector who will see screens turn red before hitting the eject button sharpening the trajectory of the move.  

尽管我们在今年罕见的市场波动中享受了一段可被称为“正常”的时间,但同时仍然要预测接下来的市场走势。特朗普正在逐渐失去民心,不仅股市正在为因此可能带来的风险作准备,就连他自己的党派也如此,担心第二轮病毒来袭的全面冲击和贸易关系的紧张,外汇市场已经转为买入避险货币,日元、瑞士法郎以及美元都有所上涨,同时英镑和欧元停滞不前。

股市方面,投资者认为短期将有下行空间。当然这还取决于本周的收盘价,周末的新冠病例人数,和周一早盘表现。如果市场能顺利驶过险滩,,那么我们可能将会继续测试高点。

The Federal Reserve further deviated from the Trump plan this week as following the cautionary tone set at the Federal Reserve rate setting meeting, Jerome Powell and team further underlined their conservative and realistic outlook for the US economy for this year and next, a view that’s been supported by again a miss on more optimistic unemployment and retail estimates this week.

In the UK the Monetary Policy Committee met on Thursday and whilst leaving rates unchanged at historic low levels as expected, question marks remained on the amount of asset purchases that would be announced and whether there would be talk of negative rates moving forward. On both counts the BoE kept their cards close to their chest, electing to add a more cautionary £100 bln stimulus and leave the ammunition of larger stimulus and negative rate talk to another day. Whilst there were Brexit talks this week between Johnsons team and the EU they were more preparatory for the meaningful discussions that kick off at the end of the month, the only notable action was agreement that the UK will leave the EU at the end of this year and extension remains no longer an option, for good or for bad!

美联储这周再度偏离了特朗普为他们铺设好的轨道,在利率决议会议上采用谨慎的语气后,鲍威尔和他的团队这周再次强调了他们对于美国经济在今明两年的保守的、实际的预期。这周发布的不佳的失业人数和零售销售额数据也佐证了这一观点。

英国方面,周四举行了货币政策委员会会议,尽管如同预期,利率维持历史最低不变,市场的关注点还聚焦在即将宣布的资产购入的资金金额上,以及英国未来是否会讨论发布负利率的可能性。英格兰银行在这两点上均没有发布明确观点,只是宣布目前将较为谨慎地注入1000亿英镑刺激资金,保留更大刺激资金和负利率的强力弹药直至必须。

尽管这周英国首相约翰逊和他的团队与欧盟之间有就“脱欧”问题的谈话,但更有意义的协商将在本月底发生。唯一已知的是,英国将在年底离开欧盟,任何延期都不再可能,无论什么结果!


The Week Ahead:

Monday: A relatively quiet day with the Reserve Bank of Australia's Lowe the only significant speaker at the start of the day. In the European session we get UK CBI Industrial Orders and the Bundesbank Monthly report from Germany before Eurozone Consumer Confidence in the afternoon. We also receive US Existing Home Sales and Canadian Governor Macklem speaks.

澳联储主席洛威发表讲话。欧洲时段,我们将得到英国CBI工业订单、德国央行月报告以及欧元区消费者信心指数。我们还将得到美国现有住房销售额数据,并听到加拿大央行行长马克勒姆的讲话。

 

Tuesday: Australian and Japanese PMI’s start the day before PMI data out of France, Germany the Euro Bloc and the UK early in the European session. US Manufacturing and Services PMI, New home sales and Richmond Manufacturing in the US session.

上午将得到澳大利亚和日本的采购经理人指数,接着是法国、德国、英国和欧元集团的采购经理人指数。美国时段将有美国制造业PMI和服务业PMI指数发布,以及新屋销售额以及里士满制造业指数。

 

Wednesday: First up is the New Zealand interest rate decision. German IFO kicks off the European session in what should be a quiet day in both EU and US sessions.

首先是新西兰利率决议;欧洲时段有德国经济研究所发布的数据。美国方面数据较少。

 

Thursday: Another quiet day of data from the UK/EU side. In the US session there is more in the way of meaningful data with Durable Good, Final GDP q/q and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

英国和欧盟同样数据较少。美国将发布耐用品订单、季度GDP终值以及周申领失业救济金人数。

 

Friday: Japanese CPI data comes early in the session before EU Money Supply and the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. In the US session we get Core PCE and Personal Spending data as well as University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers.

早盘时段有日本CPI数据,接着是欧盟货币供应和英格兰银行的季度公报。美国时段,我们将得到核心个人消费支出和个人支出数据、密歇根大学消费者情绪报告以及预期通货膨胀数据。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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