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疫情峰值已过?全球股市开始带起上行节奏


市场交易上周继续呈现“不惧风险”的状态,这是来自于乐观情绪的蔓延,在全球与Covid-19的斗争中,人们终于看到了疫情结束的一线曙光。尽管过去几周,营收季报告虽然并非灾难性但也并不乐观,以及数据的持续疲软,但是随着标普指数向3000大关进发,股市价值将继续增长。

The markets continue to trade “risk on” with optimism that there is finally light at the end of the tunnel in the global battle against the Covid-19 pandemic.  Even despite the not disastrous but far from optimistic earning season over the last few weeks, as well continued poor data the stock market continues to grow in value, as the S&P grinds towards the 3000 mark.

随着有消息称,意大利和法国的日病例增长率达到3月初以来最低,本周开盘大涨。尽管全球总病例数现已超过了400万,但即使在美国和英国这两个受疫情影响最为严重的国家,日增率也明显趋于平缓。因此,现在注意力已经转向了解除封锁和刺激经济的计划上。

We opened this week strongly with the news that Italy and France have seen the lowest daily case rates since early March, and despite the total global cases now surpassing 4 million, daily cases are notably turning even in the US and UK which have been two of the worst affected countries. So now concentration has been switched to the pace of lifting lockdowns and stimulating economies.  

昨晚,英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊发表了预先录制的讲话视频,内容似乎并未深入到关键的细节。他今天会在议会发表讲话,并公布长达50页的病历档案,之前未提及的细节问题也将揭开面纱。目前看来,首相应该暂时不会允许复工,而是借鉴其他更早受到病毒影响的国家的经验,例如德国。德国一度放开限制,但在看到新增病例激增后,又重新恢复了限制。

In the UK last night PM Boris Johnson addressed the nation in a pre-recorded video that seemed to skirt the crucial details. This missing detail should be forthcoming when he addresses Parliament today and unveils his 50-page dossier.  But it looks like the PM will not be unleashing the workforce at this stage, with him able to use experiences of those ahead in the virus curve like Germany, who released restrictions only to see a surge in new infections before re-imposing restrictions.

在英国,我们真切地感受到,民众似乎并不急于返工。原因可能正如财政大臣苏纳克上周点出的那样,“强制休假”的补助计划令他们安于现状,因此外界认为,该补助计划的额度可能会从原本薪水的80%下调至60%,并允许员工减少工时继续工作。

In the UK there is a real feel that the public seem more comfortable taking things slowly, with perhaps an element of complacency with the furlough scheme as was highlighted by Chancellor Sunak last week, so it is thought we see a tweak to the scheme with a reduction from 80% of salaries to just 60% and potentially a part time element to it.

而在美国,民众舆论与英国形成鲜明对比,越来越多的人敦促政府让他们复工,并表示愿意接受这将导致进一步感染的后果。上周五,美国发布了意料之中的、较差的就业数据,超过2000万人失去工作,失业率超过了16%。周末,美联储成员卡什卡里警告称,最坏的情况可能还没有到来。

In the US they almost have the opposite public opinion, with growing elements of the population urging the Government to get them back to work, with the acceptance that this will result in further infections.  Last Friday saw the US employment data which was unsurprisingly poor, with over 20 million jobs lost and an unemployment rate of over 16%. Over the weekend the Federal Reserve's Kashkari warned that the worst could be yet to come.

尽管如此,投资者仍乐观地看到了潜在的买入机会,依赖着中央银行刺激措施的担保,他们仍在购买股票。在货币市场上,作为避险货币的日元和瑞士法郎的逐渐被减持,石油在经历了数周的沉重压力后,似乎将要触底反弹,价格逼近每桶30美元。

Despite the data and infection rates market participants are optimistically seeing the potential for value and given the security of the Central Bank stimulus backstop, are buying stock. In the currency markets the safe haven positions in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are starting to be unwound and after a few weeks of heavy pressure even Oil seems to be putting a bottom in as it sits just below $30 per barrel.

本周,中央银行的动作较少,只有来自新西兰联储的消息。英国方面,我们将密切关注首相约翰逊的议会讲话,以及任何有关英国“脱欧”谈判的最新动向。有几位欧盟官员在周末警告称,英国可能会重提“硬脱欧”方案。在欧元区,德国法院上周对欧洲央行购买量化宽松债券的举措进行了裁定,认为其超越了被授予的权限。尽管这一裁定并未立即带来影响,但带来损害性的调查却可能会由此被触发。

This week there is little in the way of Central Bank activity with just an update from New Zealand. In the UK we will be looking out for PM Johnson's address to Parliament today as well as any update in the Brexit negotiations which reignite today with EU ministers warning at the weekend that hard Brexit could be back on the UK’s agenda. In the Eurozone, developments regarding the German court ruling last week that the ECB had overstepped their mandate with Quantitative Easing bond purchases, whilst not immediately impactful, it does open the door to a potentially damaging inquest.

对于那些希望解除封锁措施的国家的关注点,仍然放在感染水平和死亡病例上。当然,对于那些开始放宽限制的国家,将疫情控制在安全范围之内则是重点。

Again, key focus remains on infection levels and death cases for those countries looking to lift lockdown measures, and of course the maintaining of safe levels in those who have started to ease restrictions.

The week ahead: 本周展望

Monday – Little notable data. PM Johnson unveils phased back to work plan

周一–数据较少。英国首相约翰逊宣布逐步恢复工作计划

Tuesday - US CPI Inflation data

周二-美国CPI通胀数据

Wednesday – Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest rate setting meeting. UK GDP and Industrial Production data.

周三–新西兰储备银行利率设定会议/ 英国GDP和工业生产数据

Thursday – Australian Employment data and US weekly Jobless update. German CPI

周四–澳大利亚就业数据/美国每周失业数据更新/德国CPI

Friday – Industrial Production and Retail Sales from China, German GDP and US Retail Sales

星期五–中国工业生产和零售销售/德国GDP/美国零售销售


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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