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全球封锁,企业营收下滑,股市为何仍能快速增长?


As of 27th of April 2020, among the eleven S&P 500 sectors that have already reported numbers, only 4 are expected to show year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) gains for the first quarter of the year. The consumer staples sector is expected to post the largest gain of 4.2% growth on EPS yoy, while Energy has so far declined by 68.4%. 

截至2020年4月27日,在标普500指数的11个板块中,只有4个有望在今年第一季度出现每股收益同比增长。据预测,必需消费品行业将实现最大增幅,每股收益年增长4.2%,而能源行业迄今已下降了68.4%。

Earnings deterioration, operating margin contraction, top-line decline, combined with the unprecedented bear market bull-run, purely based on Central Bank money printing, created upside pressure which has pushed the S&P 500 30% off the lows reached on the 23rd of March (at roughly 2200), leading the US stock index to trade at the all-time-high multiples (see “Chart of the week” below). Compared to the 10Y historical average, the SP500 is currently trading at 22x forward PE and 13.3x forward EVEBITDA, meaning 54% and 67% premium, respectively. 

营业盈余缩减、营业利润率下降、收入下降,再加上疲软经济下反向出现的股价上涨(完全基于央行印制货币)等多重因素,构成上行压力,已致使标普500指数从3月23日的低点(约2200)回升了30%,美国股票指数达到历史最高倍数(详见“本周图表”)。与10年来历史平均水平相比,标普500当前的预期市盈率为22倍,预期企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为13.3倍,分别溢价54%和67%。

If business performance and companies valuations still mattered, then despite plunging underlying top-line & bottom-line due to operating leverage mismanagement, decrease in dividends, shares buyback halting, lack in corporate guidance and outlook (causing sell-side analysts not only big headaches, but also greater than usual estimates variance across the vary research houses) and, in case anyone has already forgotten it, two thirds of the world remains under lockdown. With that being said, many might ask what is the catalyst driving the stock market to such a high valuation, given the current economic and financial circumstances?

如果公司的业务绩效和估值还有参考意义,那么即便基本收益和利润跳水式下滑(由运营杠杆管理不善导致)、股息减少、暂停股票回购、缺乏企业指导和前瞻指引(这不仅使得卖方分析师头痛不已,而且导致各研究机构的预测结果差异更大),股票仍然以历史上最快的速度增长。而且别忘记了,全球大部分国家和地区仍处在封锁状态。那么,鉴于当前的经济和金融状况,让许多人疑惑的是,什么因素促使股票市场达到如此高的估值?

The answer is very simple: the FED. The US central bank is implementing an expansionary monetary policy, by enlarging its balance sheet by roughly 80bn USD a day, which is unprecedented. All this money is flowing into the same pockets of those people who already enriched the most over the past decade. With wealth-gap issues aside, the real problem is that this “risky” asset price distortion/manipulation is increasing the risk of moral hazard. Think of this, why wouldn’t you buy discounted stocks (in absolute terms and by not looking at the multiples) of PROTECTED sectors if the cost of GOVERNMENT-BACKED money if basically zero? 

答案很简单:美联储。美联储正在实施扩张性货币政策,其资产负债表每天增加约800亿美元,这是前所未有的,而这些钱正向过去十年中获利最多的那部分人流去。况且不谈这加大了贫富差距,真正的问题是,这样的“风险”资产价格扭曲/操纵逐渐加重了道德风险问题。试想一下,如果有政府和央行的货币支持,成本基本为零,你有什么原因不购买“受保护”行业的折价股票(以绝对价格而不是倍数来考量)?

At the end of the day, everyone knows the stock market is cyclical but eventually it returns the higher risk premium in the long-term. The focus of investors does not seem to be driven by business fundamentals or idiosyncratic opportunities anymore, but rather by the likelihood of extra “free” money printed by the FED, pushing the stock market even higher and leading investors to realise quick capital gains (sometimes even by investing in loss-making businesses). An investor could make money right now simply by investing at stocks trading below their book value. Is there a deadline for this madness? Perhaps not, but it is a vicious circle and it could potentially cause prolonged pain to middle-class taxpayers. 

归根结底,每个人都知道股市是周期性的,但长期来看,它最终会带来更高的风险溢价回报。投资者在做决策时,关注点似乎不再是业务基本面或偶然出现的机会,而是美联储印制更多“免费”货币的可能性。股市因此被进一步推高,投资者能够迅速实现资本收益,有时甚至通过投资亏损企业。投资者现在只需投资低于其账面价值的股票即可赚钱。这种疯狂会有尽头吗?也许不会,但这是一个恶性循环,可能日后会给中产阶级纳税人带来长久的痛苦。


Next week the macro spotlight will be on?

下周宏观焦点

Monday:

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone 马基制造业PMI –欧元区

  • Factory Orders – US 工厂订单–美国

Tuesday:

  • Markit Services PMI – UK马基服务业PMI –英国

  • Balance of trade – US 贸易平衡–美国

  • Markit Composite PMI – US 马基复合PMI –美国

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – US ISM非制造业PMI-美国

Wednesday:

  • Caixin Services PMI – China 财新服务业PMI –中国

  • Markit Services PMI – Eurozone 马基服务业PMI –欧元区

  • Construction PMI – UK 建筑业PMI –英国

  • ADP Employment Change – US ADP就业变化–美国

  • Oil Data – US 石油数据–美国

Thursday:

  • Construction PMI – Eurozone 建筑业PMI –欧元区

  • BoE Interest Rate Decision – UK 英国央行利率决定–英国

  • Jobless Claims – US 失业救济申请–美国

  • Consumer Credit Change – US 消费者信贷变化–美国

Friday:

  • Gfk Consumer Confidence – UK Gfk消费者信心指数-英国

  • Non-Farm Payrolls – US 非农就业数据–美国

  • Unemployment Rate – US 失业率–美国



Chart of the week

本周图表

  

Tweet of the week

本周推文

“The Fed's policies are poisoning markets and the economy.

But without the Fed’s monumental interventions the system would collapse under its own broken facade.

The system is broken. “

“美联储的政策正在毒害市场和经济。

但是,如果没有美联储的重大干预,这个系统将在破碎的外表下崩溃。

这个系统已经坏掉了。 ”

Sven Henrich

斯文·亨里希


Fact of the week

本周事件

30mn Americans have been laid-off since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the US causing economic disruption and general lockdown. 

自从COVID-19大流行袭击美国以来,已经有3000万人失业,造成经济中断和广泛封锁。


Stefano Sciacca

Sciacca拥有专业的资产投资经验,曾就职于大型金融机构如伦敦证券交易所和高盛。现任职瑞麟资本的投资经理一职。Stefano在股票公开市场有非常深入的研究和丰富的知识。

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