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全球病例增长放缓,市场趋于稳定,经济何时才能摆脱封锁?


本周开始,Covid-19的确诊曲线终于从扁平化发展到开始下降。尽管并非所有疫区都是如此,但一些受影响最为严重的地区,例如法国、意大利、西班牙和美国的某些州,正展现出新增病例逐渐减少的趋势,这无疑使人们感到宽慰,也是目前经济迫切需要看到的。

We start the week on a firm footing as cases of Covid-19 finally move from flattening to reducing. Obviously, this is not the case everywhere, but the fact that some of the worst affected areas such as France, Italy, Spain and some states in the US are showing a shift to a reduction of cases is certainly proving to be the relief the populations and economy was sorely in need of.

接下来面临的问题仍然是,政府将如何以最安全的方式重启经济?中国是最早经历这种情况的,最有参考价值的是中国受影响最严重区域采取的措施。但问题是,尽管是出于对人们自身的考虑,但他们是否会遵守这样严格的监督和控制措施?此外,即使是在西方国家中最富裕的这群经济体中,受检测人群的占比仍然很少,因此如何定义“健康”也将是问题。

The next big question remains, how do governments kick start economies in the safest way possible. With China having come through this situation first, the obvious path to follow would be the one deployed in some of their worst affected areas, but whether people would adhere to such rigorous monitoring and controls albeit for their own good, would be questionable, as too would the technologies and the definition of health, with such a small number of the public having been tested across even the richest of economies in the western world.

本周,所有的焦点都将集中在各国政府的决策上:是否缩短封锁期,或宣布逐步复工的日期。德国和奥地利已经开放或部分解除限制,开了欧洲的先例。在确诊病例和死亡人数下降的情况下,进行这样有建设性的规划是合理的。有传言称,法国和西班牙计划将在5月的第一周或第二周采取初步解封步骤。

For this week all eyes will be on the government announcement of dates for a reduction or scaled approach for a resumption of working ability. With Germany and Austria already having opened or partially permitted a lift of restrictions, a European president has been set, and with cases and death numbers falling, there is justification for constructive planning, with talk being that France and Spain are targeting the first or second week of May to take the initial steps.

英国方面,首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在因感染Covid-19住院后,本周重返工作岗位。考虑到他本人曾感染过病毒,这可能会让他对迅速解除限制更加迟疑。由于英国是开始受到病毒影响较晚的几个国家之一,因此也许可以采取更谨慎的方法,先观察欧洲其他国家的应对方式及结果。在美国,由于此前总统特朗普让市民注射家用清洁剂来抗击病毒的言论受到严厉批评,他减少了病毒新闻发布会。

In the UK Boris Johnson returns to work this week after his hospitalization with the virus, and consideration should be given whether his personal brush with the illness may make him more reluctant to lift restrictions quickly. With the UK having been one of the last countries to bear the impacts of the virus they can perhaps take a more precautionary approach watching Central Europe’s reaction and the consequences thereof.  In the US, President Trump has scaled back his virus briefings following heavy criticism after his comments regarding injecting household cleaners into citizens to fight the virus.

随着病例数字增长缓慢,明显地出现转折,市场渐趋平稳,找回了三月份的部分损失。与之前几周的惊心动魄相比,股票市场如今看起来颇为“无趣”。本周亚洲开盘时,新的避险资产——美元受到抛售。澳元表现非常积极,因为有消息称,澳大利亚某些地区可能会解除封锁,而此前澳大利亚政府曾警告称封锁可能持续6个月。

With the evident albeit slow turning point in virus numbers, the markets have certainly stabilised with the stock markets seeming almost boring in comparison to recent weeks as they gradually grind back some of losses felt in March. We open the week positively with the new risk haven the US Dollar being sold at the Asian open. The Australian Dollar was also very well bid as there was talk lockdown may be lifted in certain parts of the country, this after the Australian government had previously warned the lockdown could last 6 months.

美国越来越多的人因为封锁而失业,仅一个多月的时间里,就有超过2600万的新失业救济申请。导致这一情况的主要原因之一是石油行业。由于航空公司陷入困境,全球航空客流量被限制在最低水平,因此需求一直处于低位。

尽管长远来看,每桶低于40美元是很好的买入价格,但上周的经历表明了抄底原油是个“危险游戏”。WTI原油的关键问题在于存储,如果物理原油需求量很低,而油井需要维持产量最低水平,过剩的原油需要花费存储费用。上周,当5月期货合约过期,需要续约至6月时,市场出现突然恐慌,油价跌至每桶负37美元;而当6月的期货合约开始后,价格又回到了10-20美元的区间,因为市场预期未来原油交易会回复高位。

Whilst a reflective approach over the long term may be that anything below $40 per barrel is good value for Oil, last week showed exactly how that can be a dangerous game. The key issue with certainly WTI is storage, nobody wants it, the mines need to keep rolling at the most reduced of production levels, but this causes the problem that it's costing companies’ money to store.  Last week as the Futures Contract rolled from the May to the June contract suddenly panic set in and the commodity crashed to minus $37 per barrel into the fix.  As the June contract opened it drifted back into a positive $10-20 range with expectation that it will continue to trade heavy.

这个星期相当关键,不仅因为日本银行、美联储和欧洲央行将举行中央银行会议,还因为众多跨国公司和科技巨头将发布营收报告,包括谷歌、亚马逊、脸书、特斯拉和辉瑞制药等大型企业,还有预期受Covid-19疫情影响较大的企业,例如埃克森、波音、壳牌和默克。当然,市场将继续关注政府的最新消息,病例数和封锁期日程将是主要驱动力。

As US employment numbers continue to fall due to the lockdown, with now more than 26 million new unemployment claims in just over a month, one of the major contributors is the Oil sector. With the Airlines struggling and global freight restricted to the minimum, demand is at all time lows.

This week is a big week not only for Central Bank meetings with the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve of the US and European Central Bank, there will be a plethora of multi-national and tech giants reporting their earnings with leading brands such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, Tesla and Pfizer reporting as well as brands expected to suffer in light of Covid-19 such as Exxon, Boeing, Shell and Merck.  Of course, the markets will remain vigilant to governmental updates on cases and lockdown schedules as the primary driver.

The Week Ahead:
本周展望
Monday

·   Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - US达拉斯联储制造业指数-美国

Tuesday

·   Unemployment Rate – Japan 失业率–日本

·   Wholesale Inventory – US 批发库存–美国

·   Home Price Index – US 房屋价格指数–美国

·   Retail Sales - US 零售销量-美国

·   CB Consumer Confidence – US CB消费者信心指数-美国

·   Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US里士满联储制造业指数-美国

Wednesday

·       Loans to Companies/Households – Eurozone 公司/家庭贷款–欧元区

·       Economic Sentiment – Eurozone 经济情绪–欧元区

·       Industrial Sentiment – Eurozone 工业情绪–欧元区

·       Consumer Confidence – Eurozone 消费者信心–欧元区

·       Inflation Rate – Ger 通货膨胀率–德国

·       GDP Q1 – US 第一季度GDP –美国

·       Fed Interest Rate Decision 美联储利率决定

Thursday

·       NBS Manufacturing PMI – China NBS制造业PMI –中国

·       Unemployment Rate – Ger 失业率–德国

·       Housing Price – UK 房屋价格–英国

·       GDP Q1 – Eurozone 第一季度国内生产总值–欧元区

·       Unemployment Rate – Eurozone 失业率–欧元区

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision 欧洲央行利率决定

·       Personal Income/Spending – US 个人收入/支出-美国

·       Jobless Claims - US 失业救济人数-美国

Friday

·   BoE Consumer Credit – UK 英国央行消费者信贷–英国

·   Mortgage Approvals/Lending – UK 抵押批准/贷款-英国

·   Markit Manufacturing PMI – US 马基制造业PMI-美国

·   ISM New Orders – US ISM新订单–美国

·   ISM Manufacturing PMI - US ISM制造业PMI-美国

Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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