Whilst the Coronavirus continues to dominate the headlines globally the overwhelming feel of the markets remains “risk-on” with global stocks and indices continuing to push at all-time highs.  As cases of the virus continue to grow and spread, aside from a significant jump midweek last week as the methodology of case confirmation brought a surge of new cases, which was quickly realised and countered, the rate of growth appears to not be spiralling out of control. Of course, this cannot be taken for granted with over 70,000 cases globally and 1770 deaths this does remain a serious threat not only to the people of China but the Chinese and global economies.

随着冠状病毒继续占据全球新闻头条，市场的整体表现仍然为“偏好风险”，全球股票和指数继续不断创造历史新高。尽管新增病例仍在持续增长，但除了上周中，由于重新规范病例确认方法而造成了新病例激增以外，新增病例的增长并未表现出不受控制的趋势。当然，世界范围内仍有超过7万例病例和1770例死亡，意味着新型冠状病毒肺炎不仅影响了中国人民，对中国乃至全球经济来说都构成了严重威胁。

In the last week, we have seen China, Singapore and the Philippines pledge to add stimulus to their economies to make up any cash shortfall caused by the virus. Of course, the slow down in production and operations in Asia will have real impacts on global companies which we will likely see in Q2-Q3 of this year, but for now, the stock markets led by the US Indices seem positively buoyant. This resilience is also evident in the currency markets with the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen trading heavily on the week and Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar which also benefited from a hawkish outlook from the NZ Central Bank last week.

上周，我们看到中国、新加坡和菲律宾均承诺进一步采取措施刺激经济，以弥补由冠状病毒风波引起的现金短缺。当然，亚洲地区生产和运营的放缓将对全球各地的公司产生很大影响，我们可能将会在今年第二季度至第三季度看到这种影响。

但就目前而言，以美国指数为首的股票市场似乎表现良好。这种弹性在货币市场中也表现得很明显，投资者上周大量买入瑞士法郎和日元，而澳元和新西兰元也得益于上周新西兰央行的鹰派前瞻指引。

For now, it’s hard to fight the trend of the markets, but a close eye must be kept on developments and spreading of the virus with cruise ships certainly looking like a danger spot for contamination, leading to a 40% fall in new holidays booked year on year.

目前，市场呈现难以抵挡的趋势，但同时我们也必须密切关注病毒的发展和传播。邮轮被认为是最容易传播病毒的潜在危险，因此今年的邮轮假期预订数量同比减少了40％。

In the UK it was a turbulent week and PM Johnson and Dominic Cummins wielded the axe in Parliament. In protest to losing his team, Chancellor Sajid Javid resigned from his post sparking concerns over the UK Budget which comes in less than 4 weeks. Far from weighing on the currency we actually saw the Pound actively bought as it was felt that this could open the opportunity to greater fiscal stimulus making a UK interest rate cut less likely.

英国方面，上周市场非常动荡。首相鲍里斯·约翰逊和首席特别顾问多米尼克·康明斯对议会进行重新洗牌。财政大臣赛义德·贾维德因为不满自己团队被解散而辞职，这让人们开始担忧不到4周时间里就要发布的财政预算。然而，这并没有给英镑带来压力，反而使英镑走高，因为人们认为这可能会成为推行财政刺激措施的机会，从而降低了英国降息的可能性。

In the week ahead we have Presidents Day in the US with markets shut. Wednesday brings the minutes of the last rate-setting meeting from the Federal Reserve which will likely be the weeks most significant release. Inflation data and Retail sales will give us a strong idea of the health of the UK economy. We also get the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia rates meeting where the reference to the economic effects of Coronavirus will be watched for.

接下来的一周，美国市场在总统日（周一）这天休市。周三，美联储将发布上一次利率决定会议的会议记录，这可能是这周最重要的信息。通货膨胀数据和零售销售额将会让我们更深入了解英国经济的健康状况。我们还将得到澳大利亚储备银行利率决定会议的会议记录，我们需要关注他们如何评判冠状病毒可能产生的经济影响。

The Week Ahead 本周展望

Monday:星期一：

·         Industrial Production – Japan 工业产量–日本

·         Outstanding loan growth – China 未偿货款增长–中国

Tuesday:星期二：

·         Employment change – UK 就业变化–英国

·         ZEW Economic Index – Eurozone & Germany ZEW经济指数–欧元区和德国

·         NY Empire State Manufacturing Index – US 纽约帝国大厦制造业指数–美国

·         Machinery Orders - Japan 机械订单-日本

Wednesday: 星期三:

·         Inflation Rate – UK 通货膨胀率–英国

·         Housing Starts – US 新屋开工数–美国

·         FOMC Minutes 美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要

Thursday:星期四：

·         GfK Consumer Confidence – Ger GfK消费者信心–德国

·         Retail Sales – UK 零售业销量-英国

·         Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – US 费城联储制造业指数–美国

·         Inflation rate – Japan 通货膨胀率–日本

Friday:星期五：

·         Manufacturing PMI – Japan 制造业采购经理人指数–日本

·         Markit Manufacturing PMI – Ger 马基制造业PMI  –德国

·         Markit Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone 马基制造业PMI  –欧元区

·         Markit Manufacturing PMI – UK 马基制造业PMI –英国

·         Markit Manufacturing PMI - US 马基制造业PMI –美国

如果您对新型冠状病毒感染疫情有自己的看法、思考和分析，欢迎投稿至：[email protected]。

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