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病毒不仅影响中国经济,全球市场需做长期应对准备(双语)


In the last week, we have seen a worrying progression of the Coronavirus predominantly in China but the footprint is increasing across the world.  The global toll of cases has risen to over 17,000 escalating at an alarming rate on a daily basis with confirmed deaths sitting at 361 at the time of writing. If we separate the sad material impacts on lives and livelihoods of those affected and focus on the economic implications of the situation what we are seeing could well turn to be the tipping point for a global recession. 

上周,冠状病毒在中国的快速蔓延让人心忧,并逐渐在世界范围内扩散。截至撰写本文时,全球确诊案例已经超过1.7万,并还在以惊人的速度上升,目前死亡人数达到361人。除了那些被感染者的生命和生活将受重创外,此次疫情带来的经济影响也不容小觑,我们所经历的很可能会成为触发全球衰退的转折点。

For the last few years, there has been a question mark hanging over the markets as trade negotiations and Brexit has weighed on the global economy but the impacts of this virus could well engulf the global economy and force the hands of the world's central banks.  Naturally with the virus holding prominence in China, the immediate impacts will be seen there. In order to curtail the spread of infection, companies have had to elongate the New Year holidays till next week, with the very real possibility of a further extension. This halt will unquestionably have a significant impact on the domestic macroeconomic data. With the global reliance on China as a manufacturer, service provider and of course, consumer the markets are already setting themselves for a downturn. 

在过去的几年中,市场一直因为贸易谈判和英国“脱欧”对全球经济产生的压力而存在着不确定性,如今病毒的肆虐很可能压垮全球经济,并迫使世界各国的中央银行采取措施。自然而然,病毒对中国经济的影响也将直接显现。

为避免感染的扩散,企业将春节假期延长至下周,并很有可能会进一步延长。毫无疑问,这一延迟开工将对中国国内的宏观经济数据产生重大影响。随着全球对中国这一重要制造商、服务提供商以及消费者的依赖,市场已经开始陷入低迷。


As the Chinese markets opened up this morning they immediately plunged 9% lower, naturally, they were, of course, playing catch up having been closed for the holidays. Global stocks have of course also been struggling in the last week as a flight to safe-haven assets has ensued.  Even in a week where top US companies such as Apple, Tesla and Amazon reported very strong earnings the weight still remains to the downside. 

中国市场今天早上开盘迅猛下跌9%,当然,这是经过整个春节长假休市期间积累起来的。当然,随着对避险资产的追逐,全球股市在上周也并不好过。即使苹果、特斯拉和亚马逊之类的美国大型公司都取得了可观的收益,但由于悲观情绪主导,市场总体还是在下跌。


In the currency markets the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc have all gained whilst the Australian and New Zealand Dollar’s have fallen. Oil has also had a tough week as many of the major airlines have elected to suspend travel to China, meaning a significant reduction in demand for oil as it toils around 51 dollars per barrel.

货币市场方面,日元和瑞士法郎均上涨,而澳元和新西兰元均下跌。由于许多主要航空公司停飞中国航班,导致对石油的需求量大大减少,石油价格也明显表现出疲软态势,现在价格大约为每桶51美元。 


In the week ahead, all eyes will be on developments and progression of the contagion and how the World Health Organisation (WHO) deal with it. It was viewed as a positive last week when they elected to not impose a travel ban around China, this brought a rare wave of positivity to the markets, however, any change of that or the overall concern level could well have negative connotations. 

在接下来的一周中,所有人的目光都将集中在冠状病毒的发展以及世界卫生组织如何应对上。世界卫生组织上周表示,不会对中国实行旅行禁令,这被认为是积极的影响因素,给市场带来了罕见的积极情绪。但是,一旦积极情绪消散,或整体担忧水平发生变化,很可能会带来负面影响。


Last Friday was the final day of the long-held relationship between the UK and the EU as the UK officially left the EU. Whilst a few saw this as a symbolic day, the hard work for Boris Johnson and his team starts now as he has to come up with an agreeable and workable solution for the UK’s borders and of course advantageous trade deals for the country.  Last Thursday the departing Head of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s MPC Committee elected to keep interest rates on hold surprising an element of the markets and sending the pound up above 1.3100.

上周五,英国与欧盟之间结束了长期联盟的关系,英国正式离开了欧盟。 有些人将这一天视为具有象征意义的一天。鲍里斯·约翰逊及其团队所面临的艰巨任务正式开始了,他必须在英国边界问题上提出一个可接受且可行的解决方案,以及对英国有利的贸易协议。 上周四,英格兰银行离任行长马克·卡尼及他的货币政策委员会决定,维持英国利率不变,这让市场略感意外,刺激英镑上涨至超过1.3100水平。


This week the key data we receive is the ISM Manufacturing data from the states earlier in the week before employment data on Friday. We also get an interest rates decision from Australia which will be interesting, as its a country that is heavily dependent upon the Chinese market.

这周我们将得到的主要数据包括美国ISM制造业数据和周五发布的就业数据。另外令人期待的是澳大利亚央行即将发布的利率决议,因为澳大利亚经济十分依赖中国市场。


The week ahead  本周展望


Monday 周一

Markit Manufacturing PMI - IT/FR/GE/EU 马基制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)-意大利、法国、德国和欧盟

ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM制造业PMI


Tuesday 周二

Construction PMI – UK 建筑业PMI –英国

Factory Orders – US 工厂订单–美国


Wednesday 周三

Caixin Composite PMI – China 财新综合PMI –中国

Retail Sales – EU 零售业销售额-欧盟

ISM non-manufacturing PMI – US ISM非制造业PMI-美国


Thursday 周四

Factory Orders – GE 工厂订单– 德国

Construction PMI – UK 建筑业PMI –英国


Friday 周五

Balance of trade – GE 贸易平衡–德国

Industrial Production – GE 工业产量–德国

Non-Farm Payrolls – US 非农就业数据–美国

Unemployment Rate - US 失业率-美国

Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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