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中东地区冲突加剧,金价飙升


With the markets enjoying a buoyant December, the turn of the new year brought a swift change of direction. With 2019 ending with the dragging factor of the US/Sino trade negotiations seemingly finding resolution, with phase one of the negotiations set to be signed on the 15th January with Chinese’s delegates due to fly in on the 13th there was much for the markets to feel happy and settled with and all-time highs were seen in some of the major indices.

在经历过市场非常活跃的12月后,新的一年到来,市场发生巨变。在2019年临近结束时,悬而未决的中美贸易谈判看似已经找到了解决方案,中国谈判代表计划于1月13日飞抵美国,并在1月15日签署第一阶段协议。这让市场感到乐观和稳定,部分主要股指创下了历史新高。

However, on the first working day of the new year, everything came back to earth with a bump as a US airstrike into Iraq killed a top-level Iranian General and stirred up the underlying issues between the US and the middle east. Naturally, the escalation of tensions had the markets running for cover and safe-haven investments soared with Gold hitting a 6 year high at 1587 against the dollar and both the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc appreciating.

但是,在新年的第一个工作日,一切都被从憧憬中拉回到现实。美国对伊拉克的空袭杀死了一名高级伊朗将军,并激化了美国与中东之间的矛盾。自然,升级的紧张局势使得市场开始寻求“掩护”,避险资产随之飙升。黄金价格创下6年高点,达到1587美元/盎司,日元和瑞士法郎均升值。

All eyes will be on developments this week as Iran respond to the US actions and threats which Trump delivered over the weekend against 52 poignant Iranian targets, threating immeasurable damage from his vastly superior army, words which will only further anger the Iranian nation to respond.  With it being likely Iran retaliation would be on US bases in the Middle East,  naturally, stocks in the region have been sold. Over the weekend Iraq asked the US to leave their military bases in the country, again causing the President to take to Twitter to make threat.

这周的关注重点是,伊朗将如何对上周末美国的行动和特朗普的威胁作出反应。特朗普上周末称,若伊朗出手,他将对52个伊朗目标发起袭击,并称他“庞大的精锐部队”有能力对伊朗形成不可估量的破坏。他的话只会进一步激怒伊朗。由于存在伊朗可能会对美国位于中东的基地进行报复的可能性,该地区的股票被抛售。上周末,伊拉克要求美国从其伊拉克的军事基地撤出,这再次引来了特朗普在Twitter上的威胁回应。

Oil has surged back towards the $70 per barrel mark as the realities of further Iranian strikes on Saudi Fields as we saw last September become a very real possibility. Great volatility is expected in oil as this plays out in the coming weeks.

随着我们再次看到去年9月那次伊朗对沙特油田的袭击的可能性变大,石油价格已回升至每桶70美元。随着事态发展,石油在未来几周内会波动很大。

There have been questions asked as to the timing of the actions of the US President, as whilst impeachment looks increasingly unlikely, it is still hanging over him. Similarities have been drawn between former President Bill Clintons actions in the late ’90s whilst under impeachment, he took the country to war with Iraq. There is also the fact we are now in an election year and presidential populism always grows during conflicts.

如今,所有人都在猜测美国总统采取行动的时机。尽管他被弹劾的可能性似乎越来越小,但这件事情仍笼罩在他的头上。有人指出,美国这次的行动和前总统比尔·克林顿在上世纪90年代后期的行动有相似之处,克林顿当时就是在遭到弹劾时带领美国与伊拉克作战。还有一个事实,就是今年是选举年,而民粹主义在冲突期间总是更盛。

The UK parliament comes back from their Christmas break this week as PM Johnson attempts to get his Brexit bill through the house and of course ascertain the UK’s position in the Middle Eastern conflict. Johnson issued a carefully worded statement over the weekend sighting that the UK wouldn’t mourn the death of Iranian General, but did seem to try and distance the UK from the actions of the US, likely fearful of getting dragged into a war when there are domestic issues to be dealt with.  Over the weekend we saw Keir Starmer and Jess Philips announce they would be running for the Labour Leader position, 2 very credible candidates as it looks likely that Labour would try and pull away from the far-left stance taken under Jeremy Corbyn.

英国议会本周结束了圣诞节假期,首相约翰逊将继续推动议会通过他的“脱欧”法案,并讨论英国在“中东冲突”中的立场。约翰逊在周末发表了一份措辞谨慎的声明,表示英国不会为伊朗将军的死而哀悼,但同时也似乎试图将英国与美国的行动保持距离。这可能是出于对国内问题的担心,不愿在这时候被拖入战争。上周末,基尔·史塔默和杰西·菲利普宣布,他们将竞选工党领袖职位。这是两位非常可信的候选人,工党看上去想要远离杰里米·科尔宾采取的极左立场。

In the week ahead the focus will be on not just the US/Middle East but also North Korea where things continue to escalate. We also have a week of high-level data from the US with ISM Non- manufacturing data tomorrow. Friday brings the much-awaited US employment data following a staggering 266k new jobs created in November the forecasts are looking for 150k in December and a slight increase in Average Earnings from 0.2% to 0.3%, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.5%

在接下来的一周,我们不仅要将关注焦点放在美国/中东,还有朝鲜持续升级的局势。这周将得到来自美国的重要数据,ISM非制造业数据将于明天发布。周五将发布美国就业数据,在11月创造了26.6万个新工作岗位之后,12月的数据十分令人期待,预期是新增15万个工作,平均收入从0.2%略微提高到0.3%,失业率保持在3.5%不变。

 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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