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英国脱欧大戏仍未杀青 约翰逊获胜利好被逆转


In the UK last week, we saw a sharp reversal of the elevated position seen in the Pound following Boris Johnson’s landslide victory in the General Election.  As the polls hit the news on the night of the election the pound soared from 1.3150 to 1.3500 against the US Dollar as the algorithms hurried to buy such a strong majority. The heights of the move were not immediately corrected as we often have seen but maintained as the knee jerk reaction seemed to be that with this majority Johnson will be able to progress his Brexit Pathway.

鲍里斯·约翰逊在大选中以压倒性优势获胜后,英镑上涨,然而在上周,我们却看到升幅急剧反转。当选举当晚最后一次民意调查结果发布时,算法交易在得到积极信号后立即买入英镑,将英镑兑美元从1.3150推高至1.3500。由于保守党获得大多数议会席位,人们认为约翰逊有能力带领英国“脱欧”,所以如此“膝跳反应”的高位并没有像我们之前经常看到的那样被自我纠正。

But, just over a week on with the price action completely reversed and the Pound back at the 1.3000 level, its evident questions are again being raised of Johnson’s Brexit deal.  His actions show he’s racing to force his deal through the house as soon as possible, and in one speech last week he seemed to point towards the fact that the worst case of a divorce from the EU with no-deal remained a possibility. The market moves have shown what most already knew, the euphoria of now functional government is a positive, but the task at hand remains vast.

但仅在一周后,价格走势完全被逆转了。由于约翰逊的“脱欧”协议再次受到了质疑,英镑回到了1.3000的水平。约翰逊的举动表明,他正在争取尽快强行达成协议。在上周的一次演讲中,他似乎在暗示,“无协议脱欧”的最坏可能性仍然存在。市场的动向反映出种种已知消息——虽然现在强有力的政府是令人欣然的积极因素,但眼下的任务仍然艰巨。

The Bank of England last week confirmed the successor to Mark Carney in the role of Governor. They have opted for Andrew Bailey, who is the current head of the Financial Conduct Authority. The switch will take place in March 2020 when Carney’s tenure comes to an end. The appointment didn’t come without criticism, following his slightly blotted tenure with the FCA. 

英格兰银行上周确认了马克·卡尼的继任人选。他们选择了金融行为管理局(FCA)现任领导人安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)。在2020年3月卡尼的任期结束时,两人将进行职位交接。这次的任命遭到了部分人的批评,因为贝利在FCA任职期间内也存在污点。

Last week saw a continuation of the global stock market surge and as is typical we saw fresh highs in the S&P on a Friday, as the markets brush away fears of a December sell-off similar to the plunge seen in 2018.  Buoyed by positive sentiment in the trade negotiations. There does remain a nagging doubt as to the phase one trade deal much lauded by Donald Trump does remain unsigned. But we are seeing signs of import and export Tariffs being positively adjusted by both sides. This leaves the US stock markets on track to have one of the strongest years on record, aided by lower interest rates positive trade deal and a surging employment market.

上周,全球股市和往常一样持续飙升。上周五,我们一如往常看到标准普尔指数创新高,因为市场打消了对12月抛售的担忧(2018年曾发生12月暴跌)。此外,股市也受到了贸易谈判积极进展的鼓舞。尽管特朗普一直口口称道,但第一阶段贸易协议实际上还没有签署的问题仍让市场感到担忧。但是,我们也看到了双方积极调整进出口关税的迹象。得益于较低的利率、积极的贸易协议和繁荣的就业市场,美国股市有望步入有记录以来最强劲的年份之一。

This week with the holiday season upon us market liquidity will be low which often brings high volatility. With the UK, US and Europe off on Wednesday and Thursday, the expectation would be for quieter markets, but as is often seen any move can be exaggerated due to low liquidity.  Monday will see Boris Johnson back in parliament pushing to achieve the Brexit deadline of 31st January.  Thursday brings US Jobless claims data. With many market participants back in on Friday, we see Japanese Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

本周临近圣诞假期,市场流动性将变低,这通常会带来较大的波动。由于英国、美国和欧洲地区周三和周四休市,预期市场将较为平静,但由于流动性低,任何举动都可能会被放大。周一,约翰逊继续推动议会,以在1月31日最后期限之前完成“脱欧”事宜。周四将有美国失业救济申请数据发布。周五,许多市场参与者将会回归,我们也将得到日本的零售和工业产量数据。

As we come to the end of the year, we often see a great deal of profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing which can affect both stock and currency markets. These are by no means a given to occur but are often seen around certain “Fix” periods (1 pm and 3 pm UK time are when the height of the volatility is often seen). These moves often result in extreme price action as a currency is either bought or sold at that moment. These are typically seen at month ends and quarter/half year ends. But, the end of the year does often bring some of the bigger moves, especially with many participants enjoying an extended break and low liquidity. We can start to look out for them on Friday which coincides with settlement year-end then, of course, the 31st.

随着2019年临近尾声,我们将可能看到大量获利回吐和投资组合再平衡,这可能会影响股票和货币市场。这些不是必然发生的,而是在某些“固定”时段(波动性较高的英国时间下午1点和3点)常常出现。无论是买入还是卖出一种货币,这些变化通常会导致极端的价格走势,这些变化通常出现在月末、季度末和半年末期。但是,由于较长的假期和较低的流动性,临近年底时确实经常发生一些较大的变化。我们可以从星期五开始关注,这也恰好是年末结算时间——12月31日。


The Week Ahead: 

本周展望


Monday 周一

With a very quiet start in the European session we receive Canadian GDP at 1.30 as well as Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods at 1.30. 

欧洲时区非常安静,我们将于下午1:30得到加拿大GDP以及耐用品、核心耐用品销量。


Tuesday 周二

Early in the morning we get Japanese CPI data 

早上将有日本消费者物价指数(CPI)


Thursday 周四

Japanese Unemployment rate, Retail Sales and Industrial Production 

日本失业率、零售销量和工业产量


Friday 周五 

UK high street lending data at 9.30. Crude oil inventories at 4 pm 

上午9:30有英国高街借贷数据,下午4点有原油库存量。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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