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万圣节期限逼近,“脱欧”剧情将如何走下去?


上周宏观数据较少,“脱欧”仍然是主导市场的因素。首相鲍里斯·约翰逊很难取得进展,英国政府的下一步仍然是谜。英国议会上周通过了约翰逊提出的“脱欧”协议,条件是有时间仔细审查并修改该协议。约翰逊现在更倾向于举行大选,他认为在保守党目前受欢迎的局面下,或者更确切地说,在工党支持率减少的情况下,大选能够让他获得议会大多数票数支持,让日后的投票可以更顺利地通过。

Brexit continued to be the dominating factor for markets in what was a rather quiet week from a macroeconomic perspective. The situation in Downing Street still remains up in the air as Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggles to progress. With parliament having agreed his deal in principle, under the condition that there is time to scrutinize it with a view to amending it, the PM now favour’s a General Election, believing current Conservative populism, or perhaps more accurately dwindling Labour support could lead to him gaining the majority he needs in Parliament to pass votes.



尽管在“脱欧”的长篇故事里,工党党魁杰里米·科尔宾曾表示过想要推行大选,然而现在他显然是最反对大选的人。今天,约翰逊预计将在议会发起是否可以举行大选的投票。然而,周末有消息称,科尔宾与他的支持者将投下反对票,这意味着约翰逊将不会获得足够多的票数支持,也就是说投票将被取消。周一早晨,欧盟理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克发推文称:“欧盟27个国家已经同意,接受英国‘脱欧’延期的请求,同意延期至2020年1月31日。”

Whilst Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously pushed for a General election during the Brexit saga, he’s now in a position where he is the one blocking it. Boris Johnson is expected to table a vote for an election through the house today, but it was reported over the weekend that such is the knowing that Corbyn and colleagues would vote it down meaning that it did not have enough votes to carry, that we may say that vote pulled. Monday morning, EU Council President Donald Tusk tweeted that ‘The EU 27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a #Brexit flextension until 31 January 2020.’

 

“脱欧”路上的种种障碍让英镑受创,从兑美元1.3000高位下滑至1.2800。欧元同样没有逃过相似的命运,兑美元汇率下跌。因为宏观数据较少,市场转向从各大企业的营收报告中寻找市场的方向。有趣的是,通常股价都因利好消息而上涨,但即便在卡特彼勒、德州仪器及波音公司表现不佳的情况下,市场仍然在持续增长。上述三家公司的不利消息并未削弱证券指数的增长,标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数更是创历史新高。

The roadblock in the negotiations has hit the market with the UK Pound suffering and retreating from the 1.3000 highs against the US Dollar to 1.2800. The Euro also suffered a similar fate against a resurgent US Dollar. As stated with very little macro data, the markets looked to earnings season for some direction where there was generally good news, what was interesting was the price action in the stock markets where we naturally saw appreciation upon good news, but even the ‘misses’ from Caterpillar, Texas Instruments and the Struggling Boeing didn’t really make a dent in the wider indices and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones powered up to make new highs.

 

上周,中美贸易协商也有进展。有报道称,中美正接近完成“第一阶段”的协商。特朗普一如既往地、热情地对周五的进展表达了喜悦。在美国副总统彭斯上周四发表了对中国不满的言论后,他似乎亲自上阵,稳定了局势。尽管贸易协商的进展一定程度上安抚了市场情绪,但随着协商的进展,仍有人对可能遇到的有争议的问题感到忧虑。

There was progress in the US/Sino trade negotiations as it was reported that they were nearing completion on “Phase 1” of the negotiations, in typical Trump fashion he championed the progress made on Friday as he seemed to jump in to stabilise the situation following some antagonistic comments towards China from Vice President Pence on Thursday.  Whilst the markets take some comfort from progression in these negotiations there remains trepidation over the progression of negotiations when we get to the more contentious issues.

这周的数据较多,加拿大、日本和美国都将发布利率决定。美国必然是舞台的焦点,杰罗姆·鲍威尔承受了巨大的来自特朗普的降息压力。外界预期,美联储将做出进一步中期调整,将利率从2%下调至1.75%,如果偏离预期,市场则可能产生较大变动。本周,公司营收季将继续,包括位于世界最大公司之列的百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯、美国电话电报公司、汇丰以及谷歌母公司Alphabet等。叙利亚与土耳其答应停火,与此同时,这一事态的进展仍然值得关注。

This week is heavy on data, with Canada, Japan and the US all delivering interest rate decisions and naturally, the US will take centre stage with Jerome Powell under heavy pressure from Trump to cut rates. Indeed the expectation is for a further mid-cycle adjustment taking rates to 1.75% from 2% with deviation from this forecast probably causing the biggest movement.

 

本周,公司营收季将继续,包括位于世界最大公司之列的百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯、美国电话电报公司、汇丰以及谷歌母公司Alphabet等。叙利亚与土耳其答应停火,与此同时,这一事态的进展仍然值得关注。

Earnings season also continues this week with some of the world’s biggest names reporting BAT, AT&T, HSBC and Alphabet to name a few. Whilst the ceasefire in Syria/Turkey is in place, for now, developments there must also be watched. 


The week ahead

本周展望

 

周一 Monday

· 贷款增长–欧元区

Loan Growth – Eurozone

· 芝加哥联储国家活动指数-美国

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - US

· 批发库存–美国

Wholesale Inventory – US

· 达拉斯联储制造业指数-美国

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - US

 

周二 Tuesday

· 东京核心消费者价格指数(CPI) –日本

Tokyo Core CPI – Japan

· 进口价格–德国

Import Prices – Germany

· 英国央行消费者信贷

BoE Consumer Credit – UK

· 红皮书–美国

Redbook – US

· 代售房屋销量-美国

Pending Home Sales – US

· 谘商会消费者信心指数-美国

CB Consumer Confidence – US

· 标普房屋价格指数-美国

S&P Home Price Index - US

 

周三 Wednesday

· 零售业销量-日本

Retail Sales – Japan

· 通货膨胀率–澳大利亚

Inflation Rate – Australia

· 家庭消费–法国

Household Consumption – France

· 消费者/商业信心–意大利

Consumer/Business Confidence – Italy

· 经济、工业、服务业情绪指数–欧元区

Economic, Industrial, Service Sentiment – Eurozone

· 消费者信心–欧元区

Consumer Confidence – Eurozone

· GDP增长率–美国

GDP Growth Rate – US GDP

· 通货膨胀率–德国

Inflation Rate – Germany

· 美联储利率决定

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

周四 Thursday

· 工业生产量–日本

Industrial Production – Japan

· 捷孚凯消费者信心指数-英国

Gfk Consumer Confidence – UK

· 国家统计局制造业指数-中国

NBS Manufacturing Index – China

· 失业率–意大利

Unemployment Rate – Italy

· 失业率–欧元区

Unemployment Rate – Eurozone

· GDP增长率–欧元区

GDP Growth Rate – Eurozone

· 个人收入与支出–美国

Personal Income & Spending – US

· 持续失业救济申请数–美国

Continuing Jobless Claims – US

· 初次失业救济申请数-美国

Initial Jobless Claims – US

· 芝加哥PMI –美国

Chicago PMI – US

 

周五 Friday

· 财新制造业PMI –中国

Caixin Manufacturing PMI – China

· 非农就业人数–美国

Non-Farm Payrolls – US

· 失业率-美国

Unemployment Rate – US

· 马基制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)-美国

Markit Manufacturing PMI – US

· ISM制造业PMI-美国

ISM Manufacturing PMI - US


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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