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双语:“脱欧”进展连连,英国来到“至要时刻”


How quickly the fate of the UK can turn, last Monday as news broke of a call between Germany’s Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson that had almost confirmed the fears that a workable Brexit solution was all but impossible, this led to a fall in the Pound from a market already tired of falling. However, as we now start to absorb a close on the week that saw the biggest 2-day surge in the pound in over 10 years, the key question remains: Is the optimism valid?

英国的命运转变起来能有多快?上周一,德国总理安格拉·默克尔和英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊之间通话的消息传出,进一步印证了人们的担忧,英国“脱欧”找到可行的解决方案看似已经无望,英镑汇率继续下跌。然而,英镑在上周却达到了过去十年来最大的连续两日上涨。现在的关键问题是:这种乐观情绪是否有所依据?


The key development came on Thursday as sources pieces hit social media claiming that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ireland's Leo Varadkar had found common ground on an Irish border solution, with this being the long term sticking point in the negotiations as Johnson struggled to balance the respect for the Good Friday agreement, Ireland’s and the EU’s wishes and of course his own.  The markets were buoyant on the fact that not only were the UK and Ireland proactively talking, but agreeing.  The first wave of buying, of course, came with caution as any negative comment out of key European figures such as Barnier or Tusk could quickly stifle the surge as we had become so used to.

“脱欧”的关键进展发生在上周四,社交媒体上流传称,英国首相约翰逊和爱尔兰总理里奥·瓦拉德卡就爱尔兰边境问题的解决方案达成了一致。这曾是谈判过程中一直无法解决的停滞点。约翰逊努力在尊重星期五和平条约、爱尔兰与欧盟的意愿,当然还有他自己的意愿中间寻求平衡,市场乐于见到英国和爱尔兰的积极对话,并达成协议。当然,第一波买入潮仍持有审慎态度,因为一旦像巴尼尔或图斯克这样的欧洲领导人物发表任何负面评论,英镑的上涨都可能像过去那样迅速被遏制。


However, for now the EU seem to have opened the door to further negotiation, in Johnson's own words there is a long way to go to get this over the line on all sides, the significant move in the Pound could well be vulnerable to a break down in talks as we head into the crucial EU negotiations on the 17-18th.  Whilst the Pound, FTSE 100 and more so the FTSE 250 enjoyed a strong week, volatility will be at peak levels this week with the ongoing negotiations, the Queen's speech reopening Parliament and the debate on the PM’s actions and policies that will bring.

就目前而言,欧盟似乎开始愿意进一步谈判,用约翰逊自己的话说,要让所有人都满意还需要很长一段时间。10月17-18日是谈判的关键时期,英镑很可能受到谈判进展不顺利的负面影响。英镑、富时100以及富时250上周都表现强劲。但随着谈判继续进行、女王演讲、重开议会以及对首相做法和政策的辩论,都会将本周的波动性推向最高水平。


Johnson still has to get a deal through Parliament, a task that will be incredibly difficult with the SNP and Labour very unlikely to support it favouring an election/peoples vote.  Over the weekend we heard from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn warning that he was ready for an election “anytime”, but he will do so without the support of the Liberal Democrats as leader Swinson claimed that “Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to run the country”. So, as we enter a momentous week(s) for the UK so much remains uncertain BUT there is, at last, a glimmer of the possibility of an amicable divorce, whether it was worth it in the first place remains to be seen.

约翰逊想要达成协议仍需要得到议会的支持,但苏格兰民族党和工党则不大可能会表示支持,他们更倾向于进行选举或公投。上周末,我们听到工党党魁杰里米·科尔宾警告说,他已经准备好了“随时”进行大选,但他将很难获得自由民主党的支持,因为该党党魁斯威森声称“杰里米·科宾不适合掌管英国” 。因此,这个星期对英国来说极为重要,仍然有很多不确定性。但是,至少英国与欧盟仍然有一丝“和平离婚”的可能性,尽管这次“离婚”是否是值得的还需待观察。


It was also perceived to be a good week in the US/Sino trade negotiations. As we now drift towards the point where it is in both countries interest for an acrimonious outcome it is no surprise to see the progression in the ongoing negotiations.  With the clock ticking on the October and November implementation of fresh tariffs both sides seem intent on finding a solution to avoid. With China placing one of the largest pork orders from the US last week there is physical evidence of progression. Naturally, the US stock market and indeed global stocks are enjoying this and even President Trump is lauding the progress made to date. 

中美贸易谈判上周也有积极进展。这也在意料之中,因为谈判获得结果现在对两国都有利。随着10月和11月实施新关税的时间逼近,双方似乎都打算寻找避免关税的解决方案。中国上周从美国订购了一大笔猪肉订单,就是实际证据。自然而然地,美国股市乃至全球股市都受到了这种局面带来的积极影响,就连特朗普自己都在赞扬迄今为止取得的进展。


With this having been such a weight on the global economy for so long the relief is only light as the key issues between the countries (Currency management and technology protection) remain undiscussed publically so perhaps that is for now why the S&P 500 remains under the 3000 area. All eyes remain on the high-level negotiations this week. 

在长期以来贸易冲突给全球经济带来的巨大压力下,现在的进展效果甚微,因为两国之间的关键问题(货币管理和技术保护)仍未被公开讨论,所以也许这就解释了为什么标普500指数仍低于3000。本周,所有的目光都将关注在高层贸易谈判上。


In the Eurozone, there was a slight sign of Brexit relief last week but the troubled zone has further weight on its shoulders with the impending $7.5 billion US tariffs on Eurozone goods caused by the Airbus situation. Naturally, the EU seek to halt these tariffs which would hit their already struggling economy. Last week’s minutes of the ECB meeting passed with limited impact but over the weekend ECB Head Mario Draghi came under criticism from committee member who said that monetary policy is currently wrong, in particular, the inflation target and he hoped for better direction under the incoming former IMF Head Christine Lagarde. 

对于欧元区来说,英国“脱欧”僵局上周虽有些许缓解,但美国即将因为空客事件影响对欧元区商品征收75亿美元关税的重担也压了下来。欧盟自然是想要避免这些关税,防止其已经摇摇欲坠的经济状况再受打击。上周发布的欧洲央行会议纪要并没有激起任何涟漪,但周末欧洲央行行长德拉吉却受到委员会成员的批评。后者表示目前的货币政策是错误的,特别是通货膨胀目标。他希望即将继任欧洲央行行长的前IMF主席克里斯汀·拉加德能带来更好的指向。

 

本周展望:

 

周一 Monday

· 贸易差额-中国

Balance of trade - China

· 工业产量-中国

Industrial Production - China

· 工业产量-欧元区

Industrial Production - Eurozone


周二 Tuesday

· 通货膨胀率-中国

Inflation Rate - China

· 工业产量-日本

Industrial Production - Japan

· 失业率-英国

Unemployment Rate - UK

· ZEW经济情绪-德国

ZEW Economic Sentiment - Germany ZEW

· 纽约州制造业指数

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index


周三 Wednesday

· 通货膨胀率-英国

Inflation Rate - UK

· 生产者物价指数-英国

PPI - UK

· 贸易差额-欧元区

Balance of Trade - Eurozone

· 通货膨胀率-加拿大

Inflation Rate - Canada

· 零售业销量-美国

Retail Sales - US

· 零售业销量-美国

Business Inventories - US

 

周四 Thursday

· 失业率-澳大利亚

Unemployment Rate – Australia

· 零售业销量-英国

Retail Sales – UK

· 新屋开工数-美国

Housing Starts - US

· 连续失业津贴申请数-美国

Continuing Jobless Claims – US

· 工业产量-美国

Industrial Production – US

· 制造业产量-美国

Manufacturing Production – US

· 国民生产总值-俄罗斯

GDP - RUS

 

周五 Friday

· 通货膨胀率-日本

Inflation Rate - Japan

· 国民生产总值-中国

Inflation Rate - Japan

· 汽车产量-中国

Auto Production - China


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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