As always, the summer markets can be tricky, with the US markets showing the lowest level of volume (measure of daily transactions) since late February. This low volume can lead to periods of inactivity, which we have seen for large parts of this week, or heightened volatility which was ultimately highlighted by the big move in Commodities this week.
每年夏季假期月份的市场，都让交易员感到棘手，其中美国市场的日交易量达到2月以来最低。本周大多数时间里，低交易量都导致市场陷入不活跃的状态，偶尔伴随着波动性加剧，这从本周大宗商品的走势就可以反映出来。
Having seen Gold and Silver particularly bid over the last month, due to both a lower US Dollar and the horizon of low interest rates in the global economy, the prices of precious metals had surged, with Gold up from $1450 per oz, the year’s low topping out at $2074. Whilst it's always expected that we see slight correction after such appreciation, the magnitude and speed of the move lower took many by surprise as with US bond yields swinging higher, it crashed to $1,865 before steadying, clearing out even the most conservative of stop loss levels as it dropped. The close and open over this weekend will give us a big indication to the next direction, should we sustain above the $1,935 level expectation will be for a push back towards the year’s highs.
在美元走低和全球低利率环境双重因素的刺激下，黄金和白银在上个月被强势买入，两种贵金属的价格飙升，其中黄金在今年从每盎司1450美元的低价跃至每盎司2074美元。
尽管人们早已预见到，如此大幅升值后，黄金价格必将有所回调。然而，随着美国债券收益率回升，黄金价格以令人意外的速度和幅度走低，跌至1865水平后趋于稳定，如此大的跌幅让把止损位设得最低的交易员都自动止损离场。
这个周末的开盘价和收盘价将让我们对未来金价走向做出大致判断，如果能够维持在1935以上的水平，那么黄金将有可能向今年高价回归靠拢。
In the Stock markets we have seen them start to weigh heavily in the latter part of the week, having again surged in the main throughout the week, with tech stocks making a comeback late on, leading the Nasdaq as the strongest performer. Continued Covid-19 concerns, the political impasse on agreeing the aid and care bill in the US, have the markets expectant of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve when they return from summer recess in September, even despite improving weekly unemployment data seen on Thursday.
本周，股市在大部分时间里是上涨的，但却在临近周末时却走势趋于低迷。科技股的势头卷土重来，让纳斯达克成为本周表现最强劲的股指。尽管本周四发布的美国周失业人数有所减少，但由于对新冠疫情的担忧仍然笼罩在人们的心上，以及美国两党关于财政援助政策一直分歧巨大，这些因素都使得市场期待来自美联储的进一步刺激，希望在假期结束后的9月，看到美联储的下一步动作。
This weekend brings a scheduled discussion between officials of the US and China, a year on after the trade deal was struck. Whilst the scheduled agreements have not been met, it’s been far from an ordinary year, and as such concession should be expected. But, under the Trump administration and with his continued political posturing, traditional thought and balance cannot be guaranteed. From a market perspective the biggest shock would be a harmonious, balanced, and fair resolution to the talks.
In the UK, the week again brought ups and downs, with GDP figures showing the UK is firmly in a heavy recession, granted that was not a shock to any, but comments from Chancellor Rishi Sunak regarding increased joblessness as the furlough scheme draws close to ending left many concerned. On the flipside, there were some more positive comments on Brexit, with UK negotiator Frost claiming that a trade deal can be made with the EU in September, with the Irish PM reiterating that the desire is there from UK Prime Minister’s team to get a deal, despite recent comments from the EU claiming the UK were not inclined to negotiate.
英国方面，本周再度跌宕起伏。最新的GDP数据显示，英国正式进入严重的经济衰退。尽管这并不让人感到意外，但令人忧心的是，英国财相苏纳克称，由于政府“强制休假”补助政策临近结束，失业人数将进一步攀升。
另一方面，“脱欧”谈判有积极进展。英国“脱欧”谈判代表弗罗斯特认为，英国与欧盟有望在9月达成贸易协议。尽管近日有欧盟方面发言人称，英国并没有表现出想要谈判的态度，但爱尔兰总理米歇尔·马丁却称，英国首相约翰逊和他的团队在谈判中“诚意满满”。
The UK on Thursday increased the number of countries on the official quarantine list, as Covid-19 cases in France and the Netherlands increased, weighing on European stocks into the weekend. Having been the poster child for action and suppression of the virus, New Zealand also saw a return of the virus in Auckland, bringing an immediate lockdown on the city pushing the New Zealand Dollar lower on the week making it one of the worst weekly performers.
由于法国和荷兰的新冠疫情加重，英国于周四宣布，增加入境需隔离国家和地区的名单。作为此前在防疫措施方面频频被表扬的“模范生”，新西兰首都奥克兰近日也出现疫情回归的情况，整个城市立刻陷入封锁，这也让新西兰元下跌，成为本周表现最差的货币。
The Week Ahead:
Monday: A quiet day with Housing data from the UK out early ahead of Japanese GDP. In the US session we get Mortgage delinquency data and Empire State Manufacturing.
周一上午将发布英国住房数据以及日本GDP。美国时段，我们将得到贷款拖欠率数据以及帝国州制造业指数。
Tuesday: First up is the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate setting meeting.
澳大利亚联储将举行利率决议会议。
Wednesday: OPEC meetings will dominate the day. In Asia Japanese Trade Balance and Core machinery orders. From the UK we get RPI, PPI and CPI inflation data ahead of European Final and Core CPI and Current Account data. In the US session we get Canadian CPI and in the evening The meeting minutes from the last Federal Reserve Meeting.
当日的OPEC会议将是最重要事件。亚洲时段，我们将得到日本贸易差额以及核心机械订单。英国方面，将发布零售物价指数、生产者物价指数以及消费者物价指数。之后发布的数据是最终版的欧洲核心消费者物价指数以及经常账户数据。北美方面，我们将得到加拿大消费者物价指数，以及美联储会议纪要。
Thursday: Australian Employment and Unemployment is first up before Chinese CPI and PPI inflation data. From the UK we get a Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey. In the US session its Philly Fed and Weekly Jobless. It's also notable there will be a G20 meeting in the afternoon.
上午我们将得到澳大利亚就业和失业情况数据，紧接着是中国消费者物价指数以及生产者物价指数。英国方面，英格兰银行将发布信贷情况调查。美国时段，美联储成员Philly将发表讲话，其他数据包括周失业人数。另外，下午还将举行G20会议。
Friday: Japanese Industrial Production is the first data of the day before UK Retail Sales. We then get Eurozone CPI and Trade Balance. US and Canadian Retail sales come in the US session as well as University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
日本工业产值和英国零售业销售额是上午的重要数据。紧接着，我们会得到欧元区消费者物价指数和贸易差额数据。北美时段，我们将得到美国和加拿大零售业销售额，以及密歇根大学发布的消费者情绪报告。
