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双语:最后期限逼近,“脱欧”大戏仍扑朔迷离


英国“脱欧”方面,鲍里斯·约翰逊的首相任期前途未卜。随着《里斯本条约》第50条的最后期限越来越近,约翰逊尝试通过向欧盟施压来推动“脱欧”谈判进程,但这样做看似是在故意“玩火”,并置法律于不顾。这种行为,或确切地说是虚张声势,在英国国内和欧盟两边的接受度都不高。约翰逊威胁称,尽管有法律约束,但他仍将拒绝延长“脱欧”最后期限,并有传言称他将试图获得最高法院的支持。当然,英国议会也将对他忽视法律的选择进行强烈抨击。

In Brexit UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s tenure is hanging in the balance. As the Article 50 deadline grows ever closer Johnson either seems intent on endangering his role and indeed the law in his attempt to strongarm the EU into progressive negotiation. This act, or indeed bluff has not been well received on either side of the Channel.  The contentious issue lies with Johnson threatening that he will refuse to request a Brexit extension despite being legally bound to do so, with rumours that he will attempt to gain the backing of the Supreme Court to do so. Naturally, his choice to dismiss the law will be met with heavy scorn in the House of Commons.

随着最后期限逼近,约翰逊将于下周与欧盟进行关键的最后谈判。他仍保持希望,认为能够就爱尔兰边境保障措施达成协议。然而,在上周提出的修订版协议中,他仍然提出在爱尔兰与北爱尔兰交界处设立边境——这违反了《星期五和平协定》和欧盟的意愿。

As the deadline and key final negotiations come with the EU next week Johnson remains hopeful an agreement can be reached on the Irish backstop. However, the revised deal proposed last week still brought a border in Ireland, a situation that sits outside the Good Friday agreement and the desires of the EU.

尽管约翰逊继续坚信协议能够达成,但欧洲各国政要都对他的提议表示不满,并怀疑是否可以在当前设定的时限内达成协议。在我们准备迎接接下来一周的密集谈判时,这几周英镑汇率几乎没有变化,市场参与者看似已经厌倦了这种无休无止的谈判。

Whilst he continues to believe there is an agreement to be found key figures across Europe have vocalised their dissatisfaction with the proposal and cast doubt that agreement can be reached within the timescales that are currently set.  So, as we set for another week of frantic negotiations the pound opens pretty much unchanged week on week as it feels market participants are tired of the toing and froing of this elongated negotiation process.

上周美国方面,由于ISM制造业和非制造业数据回落至自金融危机以来的最低水平,股市和美元在上周的大部分时间都承受压力,这加剧了人们对全球经济增长的担忧以及对美国经济衰退的恐惧。

In the US last week, the stock markets and the US Dollar traded heavy for the larger part of the week following poor ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Data which showed a retraction to levels not seen since the Financial Crisis fuelling fears over global growth and a US recession.

周五的就业数据让市场重拾信心,非农业就业人数仅比预期少了9000人,创造了13.6万个新的就业机会;上个月的数据从13万修订为16.8万,弥补了本月的小幅收缩。与此同时,平均收入水平的停滞虽令人略为失望,但失业率从3.7%下降至3.5%,表明美国就业市场仍然强劲,美国股市收盘价回升。

Friday’s employment data brought reassurance to the markets as headline Non-Farm Payrolls showed just a modest miss versus expectation by 9k, coming in at 136k new jobs created, but the previous month's positive revision from 130k to 168k made up for this month’s slight contraction. At the same time, we got slightly disappointing Average Earnings coming in at showing no growth but again there was an offset as Unemployment dropped to 3.5% from 3.7% showing the US employment market was still going strong and bringing the US stock markets up to a more respectable weekly close.

美国总统特朗普仍然承受着沉重的压力,他与乌克兰总统之间的对话仍备受关注。继9月出现了第一个知情人后,上周末出现了第二个有可信背景的知情人,这让对弹劾问题的担忧情绪继续占据主导。然而,周一上午市场开盘看似没有受到干扰。

US President Donald Trump remains under heavy pressure as the dialogue of a conversation between him and the Ukrainian President remains under the spotlight. After an initial informed whistle-blower emerged in September, it emerged over the weekend that there is a second whistle-blower of credible background as impeachment concerns continue to dominate. However, markets seemed relatively untroubled at the open on Monday morning despite the Presidents issues and some discussion that the US/Sino trade talks had slowed in progress.

本周主要的市场驱动力是美国国会进展、贸易商讨以及鲍里斯·约翰逊和“脱欧”事宜。从中央银行的角度来看,我们将在星期三晚上得到美联储会议记录,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)会在此之前发言。周四正午之后,我们还会获得欧洲央行的货币政策会议记录。对于英国来说,周四的GDP数据也将成为重点。

This week the main drivers will be developments in the US Congress, trade discussions and of course Boris Johnson and Brexit. From a Central Banking perspective, we receive US Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday Night with Jerome Powell scheduled to speak just prior.  We also get the ECB’s Monetary Policy meeting Accounts just after midday on Thursday.  For the UK GDP data on Thursday will also come into focus.

 

本周展望

 

周一 Monday:

欧洲早盘将有德国工厂订单数据公布,晚上将有美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔的发言。

German factory orders come early in the European Session. In the early evening, we hear from Jerome Powell the Federal Reserve Chairman.

 

周二 Tuesday

早些时候亚洲盘将公布中国采购经理人指数。英国方面,将有2名货币政策委员会成员发言。上午还有一系列非关键欧元区数据公布,美国交易时段我们得到生产者价格指数数据。

Chinese PMI data comes early in the Asian session. In the UK session, we have 2 UK MPC members speaking. We also have a host of low-level Eurozone data in the morning. In the US session, we receive PPI data.

 

周三 Wednesday

关键事件是晚上7点公布的上月美联储会议纪要,在此之前美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔将在下午4点发言。

The key event of the day will be the US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes from last month released at 7 pm, ahead of that we hear from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 4 pm.

 

周四 Thursday

最先是法国和意大利工业产量,英国GDP将于9:30公布,英国货币政策委员会的马克·卡尼将紧随其后在10:20发言。下午1:30将发布核心和非核心消费者价格指数数据。

French and Italian Industrial Production comes early ahead of UK GDP at 9.30. Mark Carney of the UK MPC speaks just after the data at 10.20. In the afternoon core and non-core CPI inflation data comes at 1.30.

 

周五 Friday

当天有欧洲经济和财政事务委员会的会议,数据方面比较安静。美国交易时段将有加拿大就业和失业数据,此后是美国密歇根消费者情绪和通胀预期。

A relatively quiet day on the data front with the ECOFIN meeting.  The US session brings Canadian Employment and Unemployment data before US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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