首页 / 商业理财 / 双语:英国5月GDP超4月,经济仍面临挑战

双语:英国5月GDP超4月,经济仍面临挑战


It was a slow week in Brexit developments as Conservative party members registered their votes on the new party and government leader. With Boris Johnson still thought to be in a dominant position, he is beginning to map his path for immediate progress within his role, believing the primary objective being a trade deal with the US.

由于保守党党员正在投票决定新任党魁,英国“脱欧”一事进展缓慢。鲍里斯·约翰逊仍然被认为处于首相竞选的领先地位,他已经开始规划胜选后的一系列规划,并认为首要目标是与美国达成贸易协议。

 

Mr. Johnson believes once that is attained other similar deals will fall into place, however, he would do well to look at how other nations trade negotiations have progressed this year, already its alleged that the US expects the UK to “fall in line” with the US in the handling of Chinese tech firm Huawei.

约翰逊认为,一旦实现这一目标。其他类似的协议也会同时落实。然而他也会密切关注今年其他国家的贸易谈判进展如何,并声称在中国科技公司华为的问题上,美国希望英国与美国站在同一条战线上。

 

There is traction growing as MP’s are pushing to set legal precedent to block the shutting of parliament by the new Prime Minister in order to neutralise the vote rights and force through a no deal Brexit should it come to it.

议会议员们正尝试设置一个阻止首相关闭议会的法律条例,来中和投票权以及防止“无协议脱欧”的最终发生。

 

As expected, UK GDP returned to positive, coming in at 0.3% in May and up from -0.4% in April. Whilst on the face of it this shows good progress, serious questions remain of the UK economy's ability to deal with a global trade slowdown and Brexit without slipping into recession.

正如之前的预期,英国国内生产总值(GDP)增长恢复正值,5月份为0.3%,高于4月份的-0.4%。 虽然从表面数据上来看英国经济表现积极,但要在避免陷入衰退的情况下应对全球贸易放缓和“脱欧”,英国经济仍存在严峻挑战。

 

We now remain in little doubt that interest rates in the UK are not going up until at the earliest the second half of 2020 and that’s only if we see a positive Brexit, with that eventuality looking ominous at this time, there is indeed more justifiable reasoning for potential cuts from 0.75% to 0.25%, should Boris press ahead with his policy of a hard Brexit on the 31st October. 

我们现在仍然毫不怀疑英国直到2020年下半年才可能会开始加息,而且也只有我们看到英国“脱欧”的积极影响时(央行才可能决定加息),这种可能性在此时看起来飘忽不定,现在更加合理的预测是:如果鲍里斯坚持10月31日硬“脱欧”的政策,将有更多合理立场从0.75%降息至0.25%。

 

We heard from 2 members of the UK’s Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee last week Vileghe and Tenreyro who both spoke of the fact that there would be a notable period before inflationary pressures would be at the level to justify the tightening of interest rates.

我们上周听取了英国央行货币政策委员会的两名成员Vileghe和Tenreyro的发言,他们都谈到,我们将会经历较长时间,通胀压力才可能达到需要加息的水平。

 

We do have a very interesting week for UK data this week which will give a significant idea of the UK’s pre Brexit health, with labor data on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Thursday and most significantly, Inflation data on Wednesday.

本周英国数据确实非常有意思,这将显示英国脱欧前的经济健康状况,周二将公布劳动力数据,周四将公布零售业销售额,以及周三将公布通胀数据。

 

---------------

In the US it was a contentious week for President Trump. He has been on a campaign to bring his central bank into line on interest rate policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in congress on Tuesday confirming that the Fed will likely make a “corrective” cut at July’s meeting appeasing the President. 

美国方面,对于特朗普总统是充满争论的一周。他已经在进行游说,来使美国中央银行顺从对自己有利的利率政策。周二美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔在国会演讲,证实在7月的会议将可能进行“纠正性的”降息,向总统让步。

 

There were thoughts we could see a stall to assess the recent return to firmness in the Labor market could kick start the economy, but Powell highlighted global trade tensions as the weighing factor on global and his domestic market. As a result of the dovishness from Powell, stocks enjoyed a record-breaking week with the S&P scaling all-time highs above 3000 where it remains and the Dow Jones index pushing to the 24,000 level.

有说法称由于最近劳动市场恢复稳固可能刺激经济,我们可能看到利率决定的推迟。但鲍威尔指出国际贸易紧张是国际和美国国内市场的主要影响因素。鲍威尔的鸽派说法使得股市达到了破纪录的一周,标普500达到历史最高,突破并站稳3000点。道琼斯指数接近24,000点水平。

 

Over the weekend the main news events came from Donald Trump falling into further controversy following accusations of racism, after telling Democratic party lawmakers to “return to the broken and crime infested places from which they came from”. These thoughtless remarks will undoubtedly put further pressure on the President and cast doubt over his success in next years elections. 

This morning data showed that growth in China slowed to the lowest level since 1992 as the trade negotiations take effect on the economy. Despite the slowdown, the positives remain that growth still exists, and it was notable that a strong end to the quarter was seen which has subsequently kept stocks strong into the open. 

It was a tough weekend for Cryptocurrencies and in particular Bitcoin after Donald Trump was quoted as saying he was not a fan of the sector and those investing in it were putting their money into thin air.

上周末的主要新闻是特朗普对民主党立法人说“回到他们破败和充满犯罪的祖籍去”,在“种族主义”的指控后陷入了更深的争议。这些轻率的言语将毫无疑问地让总统承受更大的压力,也让我们怀疑他是否还能在明年竞选中获得连任。

今早数据显示,中国经济增长减缓到1992年以来最低水平,贸易谈判结果开始在影响经济。尽管增速放缓,乐观的是增长仍然存在,而且值得关注的是,季度末的强劲数据维持一直维持了股市的看涨直到今天股市的开盘。 在特朗普称自己不是加密货币的粉丝。而且认为投资比特币的人是将钱白白送走后,加密货币尤其是比特币,经历了艰难的周末。

 

The week ahead:

下周展望

Monday - China’s GDP came out at 6.2% in line with estimates but as mentioned above signals showed that economic growth was slowing.  A very quiet European session with no notable data. In the US session we get Empire state manufacturing and FOMC member Williams speaking. Late in the day New Zealand delivers Inflation data.

周一-中国季度GDP发布,与预计值一致,6.2%增长。但正如上文提到的,有经济增速放缓的信号。欧洲时区没有主要数据发布,非常平静。美国时区我们将得到纽约州制造业指数,以及公开市场委员会成员威廉姆斯的讲话。晚些时候将会公布新西兰通货膨胀数据。

 

Tuesday - First up we get the minutes of the recent Australian Interest rate decision. In the European session we get the German and European Economic sentiment data and UK Average earnings data. In the US session we get a glimpse of the US Retail sales sector where a slight contraction from 0.5% to 0.1% is expected.  In the evening we hear again from Jerome Powell and fellow FOMC committee member Evans.

周二-首先我们得到最近澳洲利率决定的会议记录。欧洲时区,将发布德国和欧洲经济景气指标,以及英国平均收入。在美国时区,我们将了解美国零售业销量情况,预计将会有0.5%到1%的缩减。晚上我们再次听到杰罗米·鲍威尔和公开市场委员会成员伊凡斯的陈述。

 

Wednesday - First up is UK inflation data with CPI and PPI data followed by Eurozone inflation data at 10am. There is extensive Canadian data in the early US session with CPI and Manufacturing data as well as US Building permits and housing starts.

周三-首先公布的是英国通货膨胀数据,包括核心通胀指数和生产业通胀指数。早上10点将公布的是欧元区通胀数据。美国时区早些时候会有大量加拿大的数据公布,包括核心通胀指数、生产业数据以及美国建筑许可数和新屋开工数。

 

Thursday - Australian Employment data is first up with Employment and Unemployment data. UK retail sales comes at 9.30am which is expected to show a slightly more positive negative with -0.3% forecast against the -0.5% seen last month. In the afternoon we get the philly fed Manufacturing data, before FOMC member Williams speaks in the evening.

周四-首先公布的是澳洲就业和失业数据。英国零售业销量数据于早上9:30公布,预计相对上个月的-0.5%负增长较乐观,预期为-0.3%。下午我们得到费城联储制造业指数,晚上公开市场委员会成员威廉姆斯将发表演讲。

 

Friday - From the UK we get Public Sector Net Borrowing which is forecast to show a retraction to 3.4bln from 4.5bln. In the American session we get Canadian Retail sales as well as University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation data. As the week draws to a close, we hear from FOMC members Bullard and Rosengren.

周五-英国方面我们将看到公共部门借款净额数据,预计将缩减34亿至45亿。美国时区我们将得到加拿大零售业销售数据,以及密西根大学消费者情绪和通胀预期数据。

 

这周结束之前将听到公开市场委员会成员博莱格和罗森格伦的讲话。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

上一篇 下一篇
相关文章

最新加入

最新评论

dengbao20190516_126_com: twitter上有个人说去年十月美国已经有疫情了。https://twitter.com/_fuckyournorm/status/1241029757761982464 查看原文 06月12日 17:02
dengbao20190516_126_com: 《人在温哥华》报道称“死亡人数逼近9万 美卫生部长开始甩锅有色人种”https://info.vanpeople.com/?action-viewnews-catid-50-itemid-1075907 查看原文 06月12日 16:55
dengbao20190516_126_com: Infotagion媒体写了一篇关于“事实检查:COVID-19是由美国军事实验室制造的吗?”大家来看看吧https://infotagion.com/factcheck-was-covid-19-created-by-a-us-military-lab/ 查看原文 06月12日 16:47
amp13319216570_163_com: dfewfew 查看原文 04月17日 16:50
amp13319216570_163_com: 大国风范qqq 查看原文 04月16日 10:28