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双语:梅姨被逼明确下台时间,英镑承压连续十天下跌


In what has become customary for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, it has been another tough week. However, this week saw the inevitability of her departure come significantly closer.  The British Pound has recorded 10 straight down days as it fell to 1.2720.  The Conservative party leader had been engaged in negotiations with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as she tried to reach cross party agreement to reach the required parliamentary majority on her EU withdrawal agreement. Collusion between both parties remained unpopular with MP’s from both sides, in particular the Conservative party. As such, Conservative MP’s forced Mrs May to outline the timetable of her departure following the final vote on her agreement. On Friday the markets tumbled further as Jeremy Corbyn released a statement that his negotiations with May had gone as far as they can and negotiating with a Government that was facing an imminent leadership reshuffle was futile, especially considering the damage it was doing Labour in the polls. Corbyn reverted to calling for confirmatory public referendum on Brexit.

依照最近的惯例,对英国首相特蕾莎·梅来说,这又是艰难的一周。然而,在本周我们可以看到她的离开变得更加必然。

英镑已经连续贬值了十天,跌至1.2720。保守党领导人一直在与工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)进行谈判,因为特蕾莎·梅试图达成跨党派协议,以达成欧盟撤销协议所要求的议会多数席位。然而,此次合作倡议并没有受到双方议员的欢迎,特别是保守党。因此,保守党议员催促特蕾莎·梅在她的“脱欧”协议最终投票后,明确她的离职时间表。

上周五市场进一步动荡下行,杰里米·科尔宾发表声明说他与特蕾莎·梅已经竭尽所能地进行了谈判,但是目前的执政政府面临迫在眉睫的领导层变更,与其进行谈判是徒劳的,特别是考虑到这会在民意调查中对工党造成损害。同时,科尔宾再一次对二次“脱欧”公投进行了呼吁。

 

The Prime Minister will now likely hold a final vote on the withdrawal agreement on the week of the 3rd June after the European elections. She will now be expected to also release a schedule of her departure afterwards. Despite some assurances from members of her party this week it remains unlikely that amendments made are significant enough to sway parliamentary support. Therefore, it is likely we see a new Prime Minister in the summer. Naturally, we saw a number of MP’s announce their intent to run for leadership with Boris Johnson, Dominic Rabb, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd and Esher McVey to name a few.  It is to be expected that the party will be looking for a pro Brexit leader who would look to avoid a no-deal Brexit, whilst it could be seen as a positive that a fresh approach could invigorate the negotiations with the EU, but the key question remains. How!

All of the available successors have played a significant part of the negotiations to date, Dominic Rabb for one was The PM’s Brexit negotiator, he for one knows the rigidity of the EU as they stand resolute on further negotiations. As the potential candidates start to publicly campaign it will be very interesting to see how they feel the can significantly impact the negotiations and ultimate departure process. Expectation remains that further disruption, will weigh on the UK and the Pound as confidence in the party remains at all time lows.  In the short term, it looks likely that the coming weeks bring a further series of indicative votes within parliament as May looks to gauge what could gain support ahead of the meaningful vote in early June.

首相现在可能会在6月3日欧洲选举后的那周就“脱欧”进行最后投票。现在,她也将公布她离任的时间表。

尽管她所在政党的成员本周做出了一些承诺,但“脱欧”协议的修改仍不太可能大到可以得到议会的支持。因此,今年夏天我们很可能会看到一位新首相。

当然,我们也看到一些议员宣布他们打算与鲍里斯·约翰逊、多米尼克·拉布、杰里米·亨特、安布尔·路德和埃舍尔·麦克维等人一起竞选领袖。预计保守党将寻找一位支持英国“脱欧”的领导人,从而避免无协议“脱欧”。这可能被视为一个积极的信号,因为这可能会以一种新的方式为欧盟的谈判注入活力,但关键问题依然存在。怎么做呢!

迄今为止,所有继任者都在谈判中发挥了重要作用,多米尼克·拉布( Dominic Rabb )就是其中之一,他是英国首相的“脱欧”谈判代表,他知道欧盟的强硬,因为他们在进一步谈判中立场坚定。随着潜在的候选人开始公开竞选,看看他们对谈判和最终退出进程的影响将是非常有趣的。人们仍然预期,进一步的分裂将给英国和英镑带来压力,因为人们对工党的信心仍处于历史低点。从短期来看,未来几周英国议会可能会进行更多的指导性投票,因为首相梅可能会在6月初有意义的投票之前衡量哪些措施可能获得支持。

 

The market driver of the week was the further escalation of the trade negotiations between the US and China as Trump issued further tariffs in spite of what seemed to be positive progress over the final months. Perhaps banking on the fact he believes that the US economy is in a stronger position and can deal with an elongated period of negotiation more comfortably. Nevertheless, the markets traded heavy as a flight to comfortable assets ensued and stocks plunged. Naturally, the Yuan value fell significantly taking the USD/CNY to concerning levels for the PBOC.

这周市场的主要驱动是中美两国贸易谈判事态的升级,特朗普提高了对中国的进口关税。尽管最近几个月的谈判有积极的进展。 可能他觉得美国强劲的经济可以比(中国)更好地应付漫长的贸易谈判。 但是,股票市场还是承受压力,避险资产受到追捧。 自然,人民币对美元的贬值逼近重要点位让中国人民银行有所担忧。

 

As the more fraught trade negotiations progress with tik for tak retaliatory tariffs issued and threatened a cloud will remain over the market. In a week that saw the US/Canada/Mexico trade impasse lifted their remains great disappointment that the US/Sino agreement has hit issues. Trade agreement aside, the fall of the Yuan raises a secondary concern, in that the PBOC will be looking to protect the 7.0000 level in USD/CNY. Trump and the US have been historically critical in currency intervention to protect value levels, there is, of course, a large element of irony in that although not currency intervention, Trump could be guilty of verbal influencing markets in his almost daily tweets.

随着更为严峻的贸易谈判进一步开展,中美双方发布了报复性关税,这将持续成为市场的巨大威胁。在美国-加拿大-墨西哥贸易陷入僵局的一周内,美国与中国在贸易谈判中遇到的问题令人非常失望。

除了贸易协议,人民币贬值也引发了严重问题,因此中国人民银行(央行)将着力保护美元兑人民币汇率维持在1:7的水平。特朗普和美国在货币干预方面一直致力于保护美元的价值;当然,具有讽刺意味的是,虽然美国没有直接进行货币干预,特朗普在推特上的言论几乎每天都会影响市场。

 

One thing that remains certain is with the latest twist in the trade negotiations, from a monetary policy perspective this could likely give greater cause for concern, in particular from the US Federal Reserves Jerome Powell, who we hear from later this week. As you will see below there is a host of Fed Committee speakers throughout this week and the sentiment expected is likely to be cautionary,l even despite the strong economic data seen from the US last week. 

有一点可以肯定的是,从货币政策的角度来看,贸易谈判的最新变化可能会引起更多关注,尤其是关于美国联邦储备局杰罗姆·鲍威尔的消息;我们将在本周晚些时候得到相关数据。尽管上周美国经济数据强劲,本周预计会有大量的美联储委员会成员发言,并且市场情绪将十分敏感。

 

Over the weekend we saw two significant political developments. In Austria, a further blow to the Eurozone was formed as a snap election was called after Chancellor Sebastian Kurz leadership was compromised by a Junior partner being caught on video offering government contracts for political campaign funding. In Australia, there was a surprising outcome in their general election as Prime Minister Scott Morrison came from behind to gain victory in the nation's elections. The Australian Dollar enjoyed a rally as Morrison pledged to take the necessary steps to get the  Australian economy back on the right path.

在周末,我们看到了两则重大的政治新闻。在奥地利,由于总理塞巴斯蒂安·库尔兹领导层受到一名初级成员的影响,该成员因政治竞选资金而给出政府合同,本次政府腐败问题引发了一次大选,形成了对欧元区的进一步打击。在澳大利亚,他们的大选取得了令人惊讶的结果,总理斯科特·莫里森在国家选举中再次取得了胜利。莫里森承诺采取必要措施让澳大利亚经济重回正轨;与此同时,澳元兑美元汇率呈反弹趋势。

 

The Week Ahead:

本周亮点:

 

Monday -  First up for the week is the UK’s Rightmove Housing data before Japanese Preliminary GDP. In the European session, we receive German PPI and Bundesbank Monthly report. With Canada on holiday, it is a relatively quiet afternoon aside from UK MPC speaker Broadbent and US Fed member Clarida speaking.

周一:英国的Rightmove网站在日本公布初步GDP前发布了住宅房屋数据。在欧盟委员会会议上,我们看到了德国生产者物价指数和央行月报。加拿大周一是法定节假日,英国货币政策委员会(MPC)发言人布罗德本特和美联储成员克拉丽达各自将在下午进行发言;相对而言,周一的下午相对平静。

 

Tuesday - First up is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This is shortly followed by the minutes of Australia's Monetary policy meeting, which with them having elected to hold rates at 1.5% against market consensus opinion could prove interesting. In the UK we have the UK Inflation report hearing before CBI Industrial orders at 11 am. Again, very little data of note and more Fed speakers as Evens and Rosengren speak late afternoon UK time.  In early NZ hours, we see their Retail Sales Data.

周二 :我们首先注意到的是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的演讲。澳大利亚货币政策委员会随后公布会议记录,之前会议的投票结果是保持1.5%的利率不变,这个和市场预期不同并相当有趣。在英国,我们在上午11点英国工业联盟的订单数据公布之前将看到英国通胀报告。在英国时间的下午,埃文斯和罗森格伦发言时,几乎没有笔记与数据的公布。在新西兰,官方将公布其零售销售数据。

 

Wednesday - We start with Japanese Machinery Orders and Trade Balance. Then the focus shifts to Australia, with MI Leading Index, Construction and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Lowe delivering a public address. In the UK its a big day with headline inflation data including RPI, CPI and Core Cpi as well as Public Sector Net Borrowing data. In the US session, we see the release of Canadian Retail Sales and US Fed member Williams speaking. At 7 pm UK time we get the minutes of the April Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting where particular interest will be paid to any hints on the pace and direction of US interest rates.

 周三:我们看到了日本公布的机器订单数据和贸易平衡数据。然后焦点转移到澳大利亚,其将公布MI领先指数和建筑数据;同时,澳大利亚储备银行的罗威也将进行公开演讲。在英国,这是非常重要的一天,很多通货膨胀数据都会由官方发布出来,包括零售物价指数、消费者物价指数和核心消费者物价指数以及公共部门的净借款数据。在美国的相关会议上,我们会看到加拿大零售销售数据的发布和美联储成员威廉姆斯的演讲。在英国时间晚上7点,我们将收到4月份的美联储公开市场委员会会议纪要;在这份文件中,我们要特别关注它透露出的关于美国利率方向的暗示。

 

Thursday - In what will be a big day for the Eurozone the day starts with Purchasing Managers Index data from the broader Eurozone, France and Germany. At the same time, we receive the German Manufacturing data as the markets look to see if Germany can shrug of the downturn in data. Shortly afterwards Germany is under the spotlight again with the IFO Business Climate data. In the afternoon we see US Unemployment claims and Services and Manufacturing PMI’s. In the evening we get a  glimpse of Trade Balance data from New Zealand.

周四:今天是欧元区的一个重要日子,我们将看到法国和德国的采购经理人指数。与此同时,我们会看到德国制造业数据的发布,市场正在考虑德国是否能够摆脱业绩下滑的困境。很快地,德国的IFO商业景气指数再次受到关注。下午我们看到美国失业数据与服务业和制造业的采购经理指数。晚上,我们可以看到新西兰的贸易平衡数据。

 

Friday - In a day that will likely be dominated by the run into the European Elections, from the UK we get Retail Sales and CBI data. In the US session, we get Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods data.

周五 :欧洲议会选举进入如火如荼的阶段。在英国方面,我们会获得零售销售和英国工业联盟数据。在美国的相关会议中,我们会收到耐用品和核心耐用品数据。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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